Election 2020

[nullnor]

i learned something tonight. can i share? for weeks since i got where i am the cats here cover up the food i put outside with pine needles. it took me a while to fathom cat politics. it very complicated. but i realized i had to stop putting food outside because i was endangering them. because as the weather got warmer i could hear the coyotes in the distance. it was the future they were telling me about. even a cat can tell such things.

so i moved the food inside a garage with the door slightly opened and a radio playing. a coyote will here the radio talking, about the coronavirus and anything else on the radio and think there are people inside the garage. but the cat knows it's not real and will eat the food there.

are you smarter than a cat?

[GwynnInTheHall]

i learned something tonight. can i share? for weeks since i got where i am the cats here cover up the food i put outside with pine needles. it took me a while to fathom cat politics. it very complicated. but i realized i had to stop putting food outside because i was endangering them. because as the weather got warmer i could hear the coyotes in the distance. it was the future they were telling me about. even a cat can tell such things.

so i moved the food inside a garage with the door slightly opened and a radio playing. a coyote will here the radio talking, about the coronavirus and anything else on the radio and think there are people inside the garage. but the cat knows it's not real and will eat the food there.

are you smarter than a cat?

No one is smarter than a cat, just ask them.

[nullnor]

No one is smarter than a cat, just ask them.

cats will never willingly tell you how smart they are.

there is a thing where animals think they are human. Stockholm syndrome. a cat is the only animal that can do both. at the same time. it can be wild and domesticated. no other animal in the world can do it. cat politics. you think our politics are complicated. we have nothing compared to theirs.

[B-Fly]

So the guy down near the bottom of my preference list will be the Democratic nominee. I'll admit to not being thrilled about it and to being worried about the traction Trump and the GOP will get trying to convince everyone of Biden's stunning cognitive decline. Be on the lookout for doctored/faked videos on that score. But ultimately Biden demonstrated an ability to pull together a coalition of Blacks, white collar suburban moderates and blue collar moderate Democrats and independents that, if it holds, can win him the 2020 election. Sanders, who I far prefer from a policy standpoint and as a debater against Trump, underperformed his 2016 run in ways I hadn't predicted. In part I think that's attributable to the unique level of dislike that many American voters had/have for Hillary Clinton. And in part I think the Sanders' campaign's predictions regarding massive increases in turnout from people who normally sit out elections proved in this primary season to be far too optimistic. I don't think there's much evidence in the exit polling and turnout that the youth vote turned out in high numbers. Yes, those who did vote leaned heavily toward Sanders. But his electability argument for the swing states required proof of concept in the primaries, and he didn't get it. So while I still prefer Sanders, I no longer think that his electability argument is stronger than or even as strong as Biden's. I'm not sure he could defeat Trump in MI, PA and WI, let alone make him expend resources to defend OH, FL, AZ, NC, TX, which is important to winning MI, PA and WI.

[Teenwolf]

So the guy down near the bottom of my preference list will be the Democratic nominee. I'll admit to not being thrilled about it and to being worried about the traction Trump and the GOP will get trying to convince everyone of Biden's stunning cognitive decline. Be on the lookout for doctored/faked videos on that score. But ultimately Biden demonstrated an ability to pull together a coalition of Blacks, white collar suburban moderates and blue collar moderate Democrats and independents that, if it holds, can win him the 2020 election. Sanders, who I far prefer from a policy standpoint and as a debater against Trump, underperformed his 2016 run in ways I hadn't predicted. In part I think that's attributable to the unique level of dislike that many American voters had/have for Hillary Clinton. And in part I think the Sanders' campaign's predictions regarding massive increases in turnout from people who normally sit out elections proved in this primary season to be far too optimistic. I don't think there's much evidence in the exit polling and turnout that the youth vote turned out in high numbers. Yes, those who did vote leaned heavily toward Sanders. But his electability argument for the swing states required proof of concept in the primaries, and he didn't get it. So while I still prefer Sanders, I no longer think that his electability argument is stronger than or even as strong as Biden's. I'm not sure he could defeat Trump in MI, PA and WI, let alone make him expend resources to defend OH, FL, AZ, NC, TX, which is important to winning MI, PA and WI.

"doctored videos"... LOL! I oughta slap you in the face! You don't need to doctor Biden's clips, he's a walking highlight reel of cognitive decline.

You're not the only one who isn't enthusiastic about Biden. Exit polling last night was a disaster. Portends to a November bloodbath.

Trust over Sen. Bernie Sanders to handle a crisis added weight to former Vice President Joe Biden’s electability argument in Democratic primaries Tuesday – but a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate was apparent in exit poll results, potentially raising questions for the fall campaign ahead.

Sixty percent in Missouri, 51% in same-day voter results in Michigan and 46% in preliminary data from Washington picked Biden as more trusted to handle a crisis. Fifty-seven to 66% also saw him as better able to defeat President Donald Trump, cementing the claim to perceived electability that lifted Biden on Super Tuesday. (Neither question was asked in Mississippi, which also had an exit poll.)

At the same time, enthusiasm was not widespread. Just 41% in Missouri, 35% in Washington and 31% of same-day voters in Michigan were enthusiastic about Biden as the nominee. Sanders fared worse in Missouri, the same in Washington and had slightly better enthusiasm than Biden’s in Michigan, 36%. (Again, the question wasn’t asked in Mississippi.)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trust-crisis-bolsters-bidens-electability-argument/story?id=69516740&mc_cid=e40a3edc8a&mc_eid=142ea68126

I think you're partly right about the youth vote turnout issue, but not entirely. The youth vote has increased throughout the primary, I heard up very slightly from 2016 levels, about 3%. Voting from 65+ this primary is up 14%. So the youth vote has increased, but the urgency of the 65+ voters to oust Trump at any cost outweighed the enthusiasm of the youth vote.... those increased youth vote numbers WILL NOT hold in the general election. Will the 65+ anti-Trumper's powering Biden's rise be there on election day? Of course. They would have been there either way. However, Biden could bring out even less young voters than HRC in '16. Scary to think about, but given his consistency spitting on millenials, it's really quite predictable.

That said, I believe the media attacks and smears have crippled Sanders' viability in the general as well... not as crippling an issue to overcome as Biden's mental state or awful record, but it's a moot point now. The next progressive flag-bearer will need to be more Trump-like, less kind to their opponents. People are justifiably angry, and they will need someone who exemplifies that anger.

[gcstomp]

Heavy turnout, who would have thought Biden would be the turnout king? But turnout was significantly higher than 2016. Coalescing far and wide with every Presidential candidate that has dropped out has either endorsed Biden, or in Warren, simply withheld. Even Yang, who is as outsider as you get, the math guy, has gone Biden. Last 2 Biden debates were his strongest and Biden has performed well to anyone who actually watched debates. And last night, how sweeping and decisive was this collective results?

Biden won every county in MI, MS, MO, all 279. Drilling down in MI, Sanders appears to just miss the 15% threshold to gain any delegates, and with Biden wining for instance, 96% (are you kidding, higher than Obama numbers) of senior blacks, we are talking serious momentum. These are very positive feel good numbers. When this process started with 22 dem candidates, question is who could turn out higher numbers than 2016 and with widespread demographic reach, the answer is conclusive.

Trump is substantially weaker than 2016, he was not a known quantity then, and a vote for him was a protest vote without consequence as it was widely thought safeguards, as in there were not enough complete idiots to elect criminal buffoon. This cycle electorate is treating trump as the immediate danger he is, and replacing the most disliked candidate in politics with one who has high likability I am confident this will be landslide for dems. Anyone care to bet literally anything? We have posters here who constantly slam Biden as if they are getting paid time and a half to destroy dems and support trump, but maybe try pulling with dems for a minute, or else move to canada and then you are moot.

[revo]

Trust over Sen. Bernie Sanders to handle a crisis added weight to former Vice President Joe Biden’s electability argument in Democratic primaries Tuesday – but a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate was apparent in exit poll results, potentially raising questions for the fall campaign ahead.

As you just posted, it certainly isn't just Biden, who had a higher "enthusiasm" rating than Bernie in this poll.

It's hard to be enthused about any 70ish year old, but the enthusiasm lay in ousting the Dickwad-in-Chief.

And if it's the economy that's propping up Dopey, well, that will be gone by November too as we enter into a recession and the stock market has its worst year since 2008 (already down almost 15% YTD).

S&P500 By President through 38 months:
Obama: +71%
Clinton: +47%
Trump: +26%
Bush: -18%

There goes the "Wall Street does better with Republicans" argument too.

Now, we just need to coalesce....and pick your new avatar......

[gcstomp]

1000+ daily swings are now common. revo, that trump number will look very different by end friday. this week will end solidly in bear territory. predictably there will be a dead cat bounce mid week but end day friday there will be no doubt the longest bull run in history, started year 1 under obama, is over.

[madducks]

Maybe the surge in age 65+ voters will backfire on Trump's expected anti-dementia rhetoric in the general election campaign as this demographic is more likely to empathize with Biden.

[nots]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/bernie-sanders-announces-that-hes-not-dropping-out/

Is the most important thing unifying to beat Trump, or to continue your quixotic, self indulgent, hapless bid? The DNC didn’t screw you this time. No one fed Biden the debate questions. They didn’t hide the debates during Christmas week. It was a fair process and Democrats (and independents) rejected you. Loudly, fully and completely. So now is the time to put your big boy pants on Senator, and endorse the nominee who all along has had the best chance to beat Trump. Get out of the race now and do everything in your power to unite Democrats. Continuing on only helps Trump which you allegedly are against.
PS-Congrats on your North Dakota win.

[DMT]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/bernie...-dropping-out/

Is the most important thing unifying to beat Trump, or to continue your quixotic, self indulgent, hapless bid? The DNC didn’t screw you this time. No one fed Biden the debate questions. They didn’t hide the debates during Christmas week. It was a fair process and Democrats (and independents) rejected you. Loudly, fully and completely. So now is the time to put your big boy pants on Senator, and endorse the nominee who all along has had the best chance to beat Trump. Get out of the race now and do everything in your power to unite Democrats. Continuing on only helps Trump which you allegedly are against.
PS-Congrats on your Idaho win.

Pathetic on his part, but hopefully good debate practice for Biden.

[GwynnInTheHall]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/bernie...-dropping-out/

Is the most important thing unifying to beat Trump, or to continue your quixotic, self indulgent, hapless bid? The DNC didn’t screw you this time. No one fed Biden the debate questions. They didn’t hide the debates during Christmas week. It was a fair process and Democrats (and independents) rejected you. Loudly, fully and completely. So now is the time to put your big boy pants on Senator, and endorse the nominee who all along has had the best chance to beat Trump. Get out of the race now and do everything in your power to unite Democrats. Continuing on only helps Trump which you allegedly are against.
PS-Congrats on your North Dakota win.

Sanders has stated from the beginning he was going to the Convention. He said that if there was a candidate with a plurality of delegates going in--he'd support/endorse that person.

Should he go back on his word? Isn't that something everyone has been waiting for him to do so they can run around point to saying--see he's just like every other politician!!

BTW Is beating Trump at any cost the goal? Or should we still try to have some integrity while doing so?

No the DSNC and mainstream media and centrists Democrats didn't "Cheat" this time around, but there was absolutely an active effort to minimalize Sanders and Sanders alone from each of the aforementioned. Still he maintained his integrity, he soldiered on through all this bullshit and NOW you want his to "do the right thing for the party" and bow out--even though THAT would mean he'd be going against his word?

Do you people even KNOW the meaning of integrity and Ethical behavior? It's not a damn convenience.

Yes it's important to beat Trump, but not if we lose our integrity in the process. Again, I can see that the writing is on the wall, but Sanders has endured this sham of a process so I believe he's entitled to do whatever he'd like as long as he stays true to who he is.

As to the debate--Good Luck to Biden, he's going to need it.

[nots]

Sanders has stated from the beginning he was going to the Convention. He said that if there was a candidate with a plurality of delegates going in--he'd support/endorse that person.

Should he go back on his word? Isn't that something everyone has been waiting for him to do so they can run around point to saying--see he's just like every other politician!!

BTW Is beating Trump at any cost the goal? Or should we still try to have some integrity while doing so?

No the DSNC and mainstream media and centrists Democrats didn't "Cheat" this time around, but there was absolutely an active effort to minimalize Sanders and Sanders alone from each of the aforementioned. Still he maintained his integrity, he soldiered on through all this bullshit and NOW you want his to "do the right thing for the party" and bow out--even though THAT would mean he'd be going against his word?

Do you people even KNOW the meaning of integrity and Ethical behavior? It's not a damn convenience.

Yes it's important to beat Trump, but not if we lose our integrity in the process. Again, I can see that the writing is on the wall, but Sanders has endured this sham of a process so I believe he's entitled to do whatever he'd like as long as he stays true to who he is.

As to the debate--Good Luck to Biden, he's going to need it.

C’mon with this nonsense. There’s no loss of integrity in saying ‘I got beaten by a better candidate’. Especially if the goal is to beat Trump. Don’t twist yourself into a pretzel trying to rationalize him staying in the race by claiming ‘integrity’. All you are doing is giving credence to the ‘not a Democrat, only in it for himself’ narrative.
He took his shot. He lost. Time to for him (and all the Bernie Bro’s) to acknowledge that and move forward (again only if the goal is to actually defeat Trump, not just to talk about it).

[GwynnInTheHall]

C’mon with this nonsense. There’s no loss of integrity in saying ‘I got beaten by a better candidate’. Especially if the goal is to beat Trump. Don’t twist yourself into a pretzel trying to rationalize him staying in the race by claiming ‘integrity’. All you are doing is giving credence to the ‘not a Democrat, only in it for himself’ narrative.

He's not a democrat, but he has to run as one to even have a punchers chance--the system has been and is rigged so that those in power make the decisions. THAT is what Sanders and everyone who supports him is fighting--Back in my college days I got into competitive speaking and though I enjoyed some success, I was never going to break through at the National level because I wasn't from one of the top3-5 programs. No matter how good I was--or anyone like me--you see, they have a little practice (or did) called--Power Protect, they would intentionally seed the stronger speakers from the better schools vs easy nobody competition this assured THOSE speakers an easy road to the final--once in a while an outsider made it in, but they had to overcome long odds and even then--stood very little chance at winning vs those schools. You see--those in charge protect what THEY believe to be right/best has been going on forever and in many forms--Sanders and people like myself want this shit to end. Stop. Make the damn thing fair.

No I don't think Sanders should do anything but what he's said he'll do--the Democratic Party and the System have done NOTHING for him except assure he'd never really get a fair shot at the nomination.

It's like the fact some people say women have every opportunity to make as much as a man--They don't. persons of color make as much as white folk--They don't. Sanders never had the SAME opportunity to get the nomination as whomever the powers that be were going to choose over him. If Biden "deserves" the nomination, he should welcome a debate vs Sanders so he can PROVE he deserves it over Bernie.

Sanders isn't in this for himself--he's in it for Us--All of Us who are tired of the status quo and those who sustain/impose it upon us.

EDIT: In NO way do it believe Biden is the better candidate and Biden beat him like the Astros Beat the Dodgers.

[DMT]

Oh gawd, spare us. The Astros, really?