Election 2020

[umjewman]

To the people claiming Trump vs Biden in a debate would be a wash, I strongly disagree.

Watch Trump elicit a standing ovation at CPAC for his summary of the Democratic primary race. His comedic timing, stage presence, it's all in top form. He can absolutely embarrass and enfeeble Biden in ways that cannot be fathomed... Biden has been quick to anger and outbursts when questioned by average voters... imagine him facing Trump when he's in peak form, as in this clip.

I’m not sure this is adequate evidence. CPAC is basically a Trump rally. The real questions if Biden wins are whether the Obama voter who voted for Trump comes back (which I’d wager will be dictated as much by what the stock market is doing as anything) and whether the Bernie supporters accept a Biden victory and still vote. I don’t think the debates are going to matter all that much.

And Biden was far from my first choice.

[B-Fly]

To the people claiming Trump vs Biden in a debate would be a wash, I strongly disagree.

Watch Trump elicit a standing ovation at CPAC for his summary of the Democratic primary race. His comedic timing, stage presence, it's all in top form. He can absolutely embarrass and enfeeble Biden in ways that cannot be fathomed... Biden has been quick to anger and outbursts when questioned by average voters... imagine him facing Trump when he's in peak form, as in this clip.

Yes, Trump is a better "performer" than Biden, and certainly so without a script. I don't think that means that Biden can't beat Trump, but yes, it's a point of disadvantage.

[B-Fly]

I do think all Democrats should give Sanders credit for his public statements this week about not pressuring Warren out of the race and his commitment to drop out if Biden has a plurality of pledged delegates going into the convention.

[Sour Masher]

I’m not sure this is adequate evidence. CPAC is basically a Trump rally. The real questions if Biden wins are whether the Obama voter who voted for Trump comes back (which I’d wager will be dictated as much by what the stock market is doing as anything) and whether the Bernie supporters accept a Biden victory and still vote. I don’t think the debates are going to matter all that much.

And Biden was far from my first choice.

Right. The debates worthlessness was proven in 2016. the format's are archaic and based on 50s quiz shows, and no one really cares about them. And it isn't fair to compare Trump at his best to Biden at his worst. They would both do poorly on stage together on the fly. But it won't matter.

[DMT]

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/biden-black-vote/

Black voters opted for Biden because they have no faith that white voters will do the right thing and vote for a true progressive.

They believe if you make white people choose between their money and their morality—between candidates like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (who somehow finished fifth in South Carolina, behind Pete Buttigieg) and candidates like Biden and Michael Bloomberg—they will choose their money every time and twice on Election Day.

[nots]

I live in PA and I'm not sure about this. I think it will be close with him or without him.

Perhaps I need to rephrase what I wrote. Sanders was going to have to run in Pa advocating for a fracking ban. That would have been a tough sell to Democrats and Independants that work or have families that work in the fracking industry there (which we both know is a lot of folks). Biden won’t have to carry that burden. I agree that Pa might again be close, but I think Biden has a much, much better to carry it than Sanders would have.

[nots]

https://www.thenation.com/article/po...en-black-vote/

Black people are the most conservative faction of the Democratic Party. They chose the most conservative candidate running, who also happened to be the VP of the first black President.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

[The Feral Slasher]

https://www.thenation.com/article/po...en-black-vote/

So we just need to work on making white people poor too.

[nots]

Warren dropping out.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Warren dropping out.

And now it gets interesting.

[Teenwolf]

You are showing admirable restraint in talking about Warren. I will say it for you and TW, even though like B-Fly (who I do think is a progressive, just as I think I am, but I get your perspective) I liked her wonkish, policy driven, work within the system to change it approach, but if she backs Biden over Sanders, what you and TW have been saying about her beg an opportunist will have been correct all along. Others might try to defend it as the smart play, so she can work with Biden to make progressive change. But I think it will prove guys like you right, and weaken her credibility as a progressive champion, which she has been for the last few years.

Thank you for acknowledging the case with Warren.

If she drops out to support the progressive who's coattails she rode, saying "I'm with Bernie", well, it's time to prove it. If Warren endorses Bernie quickly and loudly, then I admit I was wrong, that she does want progressive policies more than personal power after all. If she refuses to endorse Bernie like she did in 2016, and as I think is most likely for her to do this cycle, then she wasn't actually a progressive. It's very simple, she said she was with him. Prove it.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong, and she endorses Bernie... but after her refusing to shake Bernie's hand after the last debate, it's clear she can't get over her bitterness at losing to Bernie, probably moreso now that he beat her in MA. She holds all the power, and yet she's shown so little political courage. Now is the time for redemption.

Given my admission that if she endorses I was wrong about Warren... would Warren's supporters here be willing to admit they were wrong about her progressive bonafides if she doesn't endorse Bernie?

[DMT]

Thank you for acknowledging the case with Warren.

If she drops out to support the progressive who's coattails she rode, saying "I'm with Bernie", well, it's time to prove it. If Warren endorses Bernie quickly and loudly, then I admit I was wrong, that she does want progressive policies more than personal power after all. If she refuses to endorse Bernie like she did in 2016, and as I think is most likely for her to do this cycle, then she wasn't actually a progressive. It's very simple, she said she was with him. Prove it.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong, and she endorses Bernie... but after her refusing to shake Bernie's hand after the last debate, it's clear she can't get over her bitterness at losing to Bernie, probably moreso now that he beat her in MA. She holds all the power, and yet she's shown so little political courage. Now is the time for redemption.

Given my admission that if she endorses I was wrong about Warren... would Warren's supporters here be willing to admit they were wrong about her progressive bonafides if she doesn't endorse Bernie?

I hope she endorses him, but her "progressive bonafides" are much broader than simply endorsing Bernie Sanders for president.

[B-Fly]

Given my admission that if she endorses I was wrong about Warren... would Warren's supporters here be willing to admit they were wrong about her progressive bonafides if she doesn't endorse Bernie?

I would want to hear and evaluate her reasoning. I think it's possible to be a bona fide progressive and think, for example, that because we haven't seen a surge in youth voting during the primaries and because he hasn't been able to build on his African American support that the case for how Sanders would go about defeating Trump looks too wobbly. I want to vote for Sanders in New Jersey, but I am super worried about his electability based on the turnout and results by demographic per the exit polling we've seen. Sanders essentially acknowledged yesterday that the youth turnout hasn't been adequate and that he needs to convince more Black voters that he's the best choice for the things they care about.

[Teenwolf]

I would want to hear and evaluate her reasoning. I think it's possible to be a bona fide progressive and think, for example, that because we haven't seen a surge in youth voting during the primaries and because he hasn't been able to build on his African American support that the case for how Sanders would go about defeating Trump looks too wobbly. I want to vote for Sanders in New Jersey, but I am super worried about his electability based on the turnout and results by demographic per the exit polling we've seen. Sanders essentially acknowledged yesterday that the youth turnout hasn't been adequate and that he needs to convince more Black voters that he's the best choice for the things they care about.

Bernie had taken a slim lead with black voters in polling leading up to super Tuesday, and actually still has a large lead with Latinos, which should count for something. These black voters supporting Biden, are doing so because of electability fears sewn into media narrative about the dangers of socialism. Maybe that would be a huge deterrence for voters in the general, although I disagree. But it's not a blowout. Sanders' supposed inelectability has been proven false, as M4A won all over, and Sanders was chosen as most trusted on health care.

The delegate score is tied. If Warren chooses to support Biden because she thinks he's more electable, then that's another in a long line of poor political calculations she's made.

[Sour Masher]

Black people are the most conservative faction of the Democratic Party. They chose the most conservative candidate running, who also happened to be the VP of the first black President.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

I'm with you on this. Of course, when talking about a large group of voters, both things can be true. I am sure there are many black voters who went with Biden because they did not trust white voters to go with a true progressive if it was actually going to cost them anything. No doubt. And maybe they were right to do that. I don't know. Trusting white people in general gets folks in trouble .

But I know it is also true that many black voters are fairly conservative, often for religious reasons, sometimes they are just financially conservative. I know many who would be moderate republicans if the party wasn't so overtly racist and antagonistic to them. Just as with other races, I think we'd see a more even split in the black community for party affiliation if the GOP, again, wasn't so overtly racist and did not house so many overt racists. It just happens to be the party that houses all the white nationalists these days (or at least almost all). Hard to join a party that has a significant number of members that see you as inferior and want you gone.