Election 2020

[B-Fly]

If Warren had dropped out before getting embarrassed like she did throughout super Tuesday, narrative from her endorsement as well as her voters moving to him would have been enough to propel him to a win....

What a legit progressive, screwing over the guy she claimed to support in favor of elevating a senile surefire loser like Biden... what incredible political instinct she exhibits. Her campaign manager stated the point of their campaign was to hurt Bernie Sanders. The game is over, she was never a progressive. She's a power hungry "player in the game," she told everyone herself but they didn't listen.

She is a progressive. Her policies are all clearly progressive. She's not a revolutionary. She's not a Democratic Socialist. So she's not ultimately sympatico with Sanders on means or extent. She's a progressive within the new Democratic mainstream, but much more of a believer in the system than Sanders is.

And basically, that's also me. I am a progressive. My policy preferences are clearly progressive. But I'm not a revolutionary. I believe in the system and working within the system and think we can advance progressive policies and goals from within the mainstream of the Democratic Party (and that ultimately that's the only way to advance progressive policies since you'll need Congress).

[Teenwolf]

B-Fly, her campaign manager stated the goal was to hurt Sanders... she sent out an email last night asking for donations for the fight in the next 10 states, despite getting crushed all over... what the fuck is she doing stopping a fellow progressive?

Is she trying to get a position of influence within a Biden administration to push progressive policies from within?

[B-Fly]

B-Fly, her campaign manager stated the goal was to hurt Sanders... she sent out an email last night asking for donations for the fight in the next 10 states, despite getting crushed all over... what the fuck is she doing stopping a fellow progressive?

Is she trying to get a position of influence within a Biden administration to push progressive policies from within?

Potentially, sure. I think she'll drop out this week, however.

[gcstomp]

Biden performance on super tuesday finally gives me hope that trump will be safely dispatched. Can you imagine a dem candidate who cant bring in the black support (Sanders) and how that would do in general? One who's primary platform, med4all, does not have ANY support in the dem majority house, never mind the repub senate?

Biden is a guy who will bring in the Mccain and Romney repubs as well as record turnout and massive enthusiasm. This as demonstrated last night where turnout was extraordinary. Sanders would not get any repubs and has no concept that entire concept of big tent coalition building is reaching across and finding common ground to build from, not the my way or highway revolutionary Sanders way. When Warren drops, she should endorse Biden, as she has proudly called herself a capitalist. When Bloomberg drops he will be behind Biden, his entire reason for entering was not any way self serving but to defeat trump. He is self aware enough to know his road remaining is not too long and has more wealth than he can possibly spend in a 100 lifetimes but he subjected himself to the humbling experience of having to raise his hand in a debate to try to eek out 15 second slots of time and get savaged by Warren.

Easily 100 times more likely imo that Biden will win than the burn your reality to ash sanders as nominee. Keep in mind you either support dem nominee or you are in some way propping up the fascist trump. We should be spending time talking about how much weaker a candidate trump is this cycle than he was in 16, who at that time was against a reviled dem candidate, just about the only political figure with even lower likability than him.

And the likability factor with Biden is huge, he is a sympathetic figure who has endured staggering personal losses and is in this clearly not for personal gain but to a call to service against evil. We need to talk About how we know trump is a criminal with some 3000 conflicts of interest https://www.commondreams.org/newswir...licts-interest
Of how he is the only impeached figure to run for an election, and who has never bothered to try to build upon his base. Today is a good day, and if Biden is the man , the most harmful forces are the daily generators of conflict seeking to diminish Biden rather than build him up and/or point out in how many ways trump is an anti american fascist. Trump will certainly be doing that, and desperately preferred sanders over Biden, you want to be rowing same direction as trump and his crazy daily attack tweets and clan rallies?

[B-Fly]

So if Biden is the nominee, then the targeted path is presumably to flip at least three of the six states that moved from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. In order of "flippability" for Biden: MI, PA, WI, FL, OH, IA. If he can flip the first three, he's president with either 279 or 278 electoral votes (depending on whehter Trump can hold the one split vote out of Maine he got in 2016). In all of those states except Iowa, Black turnout for the Democrats will be a huge factor.

[Teenwolf]

Here's my prediction. The media will go all in the tank for Biden, obviously. Warren stays in the race, embarrassingly, and continuing to blunt Sanders support... but now that the delegate race is essentially tied, 1-on-1, we will view Biden under the microscope.

Once Biden's actual inability to form sentences or finish complete thoughts, or remember who people are, what position they're running for, what position he's running for, etc., as the projected nominee, he could face a level of scrutiny he hasn't to this point. With media in the tank, it's an unlikely scenario, but I don't underestimate the ability of Biden to both gaffe and look horribly senile in very public ways that could sink his campaign if given proper attention.

One more quote, the full quote, since I know you won't watch video. Again, this from within the last few days.

"It's time for America to get back up on its feet and once again fight for the proposition that 'we hold these truths to be self-evident.' Sounds corny. Not a joke. Think about it. 'We hold these truths to be self evident. All men and women', created, by the--- go, you know the thing. You know how we talk about it. Or 'We the people'... folks. Endowed by a creator certain inaliable* rights. We've never lived up to that. We've never lived up to that. Thomas Jefferson, the person who wrote the words never lived up to it. But we've never ever before walked away from it. Never."

(*meant "inalienable")... if you think that level of incoherence can defeat Trump's army, good luck to you. All Trump would have to do is recite a few more words than Biden managed, or say "he doesn't even know the declaration of independence folks, watch, 'How does the declaration of independence go, Sleepy Joe? I'll wait. I'll give you time.".... If the economy is still artificially inflated, Trump runs on how much better the new USMCA is than Biden's old NAFTA, yeah Trump can win the midwest again without a doubt.

Saying "Trump vs Biden on mental decline is a wash" is shallow analysis. Dems will be legitimately concerned and stay home, independents will vote for the devil they know with a more functional speaker. That's all it will come down to. Voters are not politically educated, clearly. Trump will crush him on general mental and verbal competance. I say this as someone who previously claimed Trump would be ousted for mental instability, but I honestly think Trumpists have drunk the Kool-Aid that they're in the Mad King party, and Dems and Independents won't muster the energy to back a senility case like Biden.

Do you believe Democrats and centrist independents will be more inclined to rabidly support a declining Biden than the Republican base and centrist independents already fervently support Trump? That's what the campaign will come down to.

Finally, when he weaponizes Hunter Biden and the Biden family's corruption, and when Biden's flagrant compulsive lying becomes a seriously reported on issue, and Trump calls him out for his lies, like being arrested visiting Mandela, then the issue of honesty, moral decency and integrity could not only become a wash, but actually swing to Trump.

Sanders is in a big hole, and media narrative won't help, and Warren's treachery also doesn't help... but if there's one thing I can count on, its Biden falling apart. He just needs to do so in a highly public way that isn't glossed over by the media. We shall see.

[Teenwolf]

So if Biden is the nominee, then the targeted path is presumably to flip at least three of the six states that moved from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. In order of "flippability" for Biden: MI, PA, WI, FL, OH, IA. If he can flip the first three, he's president with either 279 or 278 electoral votes (depending on whehter Trump can hold the one split vote out of Maine he got in 2016). In all of those states except Iowa, Black turnout for the Democrats will be a huge factor.

Black support for Sanders skews younger, so actually, the best candidate for black turnout would be Sanders, since those are the least likely demographic to turn out.

With Latinos, Sanders holds a huge edge, seeing massive support, only slightly blunted by Bloomberg's excessive ad buying.

Black voters split 90/10 towards Democrats. Latinos split closer to 65/35. So it seems more important to turn out a more vulnerable, more flippable group in the general than the one that is already a near certainty to vote against Trump in the general no matter who the nominee is.

Biden's crime bill, treatment of Anita Hill, and all sorts of Biden's record are ripe to weaponize and depress the black vote. You guys think Trump will do worse in 2020 with black voters than 2016? That's a strategy?! What the fuck, am I living in an MSNBC fever dream right now? You guys know that Obama chose Biden as the anti-black candidate to balance the ticket in 2008, right? Calling him the "first clean and intelligent black candidate" or whatever the wording was... it's insane to think Biden has the black vote locked up, ready to support him in droves in ways they didn't support Clinton, because Obama.

[Teenwolf]

If only Sanders and Biden cross the delegate threshold in California (Bloomberg running 3rd at 15%, but could fall below as early votes are counted), would be a huge delegate swing in Bernie's favor and make it basically tied... media will be huge supporting Biden as the presumptive winner going forward, but I look forward to a 2 horse race.

[frae]

The data I keep finding says young voters didn't turn out in any higher percentage than 2016 and while Sanders dominates the ones that do turnout he isn't driving more turnout...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/04/super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-youth-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/04/super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-youth-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/4/21164383/texas-primary-sanders-biden-old-voters-turnout

He also trailed by a huge margin in the black vote regardless of Warren or Bloomberg and Biden is ahead by 10 points with women in the Washington Post exit polls and those are the two groups you need to win this party...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-super-tuesday-primary/#RACE

[Teenwolf]

Here's a much smarter analysis of the case from much smarter pundits than the trash in mainstream media. Not surprisingly, they echo some of the points I've made. I actually thought Sanders playing nice in debates was smart, but I think they're right and my suspicion was wrong. He fucked up by not going negative against any of his opponents other than Bloomberg. We'll see if he can turn it around yet.

[revo]

Bloomberg out and endorses Biden.

[Teenwolf]

The data I keep finding says young voters didn't turn out in any higher percentage than 2016 and while Sanders dominates the ones that do turnout he isn't driving more turnout...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/04/super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-youth-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/04/super-tuesday-bernie-sanders-youth-votes-fell-short-compared-2016/4947795002/

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/4/21164383/texas-primary-sanders-biden-old-voters-turnout

He also trailed by a huge margin in the black vote regardless of Warren or Bloomberg and Biden is ahead by 10 points with women in the Washington Post exit polls and those are the two groups you need to win this party...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...-primary/#RACE

Under 30, regardless of background, is by far the least likely to turnout in the general election. Sanders crushed with the under 30 vote all over the place. That they didn't increase their turnout relative to other demographics means that simply surged equally proportionally, right?

2016 primary voters thought Trump would get steamrolled by whoever the nominee was. There wasn't a hair-on-fire urgency there is today among mainstream Democratic voters.

On the question of abolishing private health care in favor of Medicare for All, did you see those numbers? I heard it had majority support in every state but one where it was still supported, but 49-45 or something... I really dont think voters are scared of Sanders unless the media and party leaders tell them to be. So when even Liz Warren knifes you in the back, it's a tough narrative to overcome.

The fact the media refused to show Obama saying the exact same comments as Sanders regarding Fidel Castro is a disgusting lie, and it turns out successful weaponization of a manufactured lie. The power of the corrupt media is sickening.

[revo]

Warren meeting with aides to "re-assess her campaign."

[Teenwolf]

Bloomberg out and endorses Biden.

I'm sure he will give him a half a billion reasons to smile, and media will lap it up.

Outfundraising Trump by $1 Bn worked so well for President Clinton, it couldn't possibly fail.

[The Feral Slasher]

Warren meeting with aides to "re-assess her campaign."

That shouldnt take long