Election 2020

[Sour Masher]

You too. and to all. I really hope we can get together to get Trump out. Time will tell, I guess.

[The Feral Slasher]

ok, I'm done with denial and anger....moving on to :checks list: bargaining

[cardboardbox]

wow, good thing I didnt place any bets on my prediction that Biden was toast. What a strange, unpredictable reversal of fortune for him.

I'll probably regret this, but I'm excited to watch Biden for the next 8 months.

[nots]

Couple thoughts:
*Warren holding out is really doing no favors for Sanders or the progressives. I can’t figure out her angle because she is alienating the folks she would need to be the compromise candidate in a contested convention. Bernie needs her to drop out immediately.
* Biden owes Clyburn A LOT (and Klob and Pete a little). Cute to see Beto still thinks he’s relevant, bless his heart.
* I think Sanders remarks on Castro definitely hurt him—especially given that a lot of people just started paying attention to this whole process last week. Just not a savvy thing to do and a totally unforced error.
* If Bloomberg drops out today (and I believe he will) I think that would about wrap it up. NExt few states a good ones for Biden with lower Hispanic populations where Sanders has done well.
* would be kind of funny if Gabbard was on the debate stage on the 15th as one of the Final Four after so many other stronger candidates dropped out. She will absolutely savage Biden, but I think it will be too late.
* I am amazed at how quickly this whole thing changed

[revo]

Wow, Biden with an absolutely stunning win in Texas. Where did that come from?

This is the political comeback of the century. Even as late as yesterday afternoon, no one could have predicted this.

[Hornsby]

But there really were no polls between SC and today, and certainly none that occurred after Pete an Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Biden.

There was actually plenty of polling during the time between SC and Super Tuesday...stealing Nate Silver and 538 here:

Why this sudden turn in Biden’s favor? As we said, it’s mostly about the polling showing an even bigger bounce for Biden than the model expected. On Monday night and Tuesday morning, we got our first glimpse of polls in which a significant number of interviews were conducted after Buttigieg’s and Klobuchar’s withdrawals from the race, and several were startlingly good for Biden. For instance, we got four polls in rapid succession of Virginia, a state that had looked like a tossup before South Carolina — and all four gave Biden a lead of at least 14 points. He is now virtually certain to win the state as a result. In the same way, North Carolina is now firmly in Biden’s camp with the release of three new polls that gave Biden an average lead of 16 points in the Tar Heel State.

Biden had already been gaining ground in our California polling average, but new Swayable and Data for Progress polls caused Biden to improve further in our forecast for the state. Although Sanders still has a lead there and is the likely winner, Biden has cut his projected margin to the single digits — and both Bloomberg and Warren project to get at least 15 percent of the vote in California, meaning they’ll get delegates of their own and prevent Sanders from running up the score. On the flip side, if Sanders overperforms in California and keeps Warren and Bloomberg from getting 15 percent there, he has some upside relative to our projections.

Granted, other new polls showed less dramatic movement. Swayable and Data for Progress released polls of Texas confirming what our forecast already thought: that Sanders and Biden are neck-and-neck in the Lone Star State, in what is probably the most interesting contest of the evening. Other polls featured results that looked a little flukish, like Bloomberg leading in Maine and Utah, per two Swayable polls. (This still hurt Sanders’s chances, though, especially in Utah, which was previously expected to be an easy win for him.) But few new polls (outside those of his home state of Vermont) were unambiguously good for Sanders.

We should keep in mind that none of these new polls are traditional, live-caller telephone polls; there just wouldn’t have been enough time to conduct many of them anyway after South Carolina. So that increases the uncertainty — although our model accounts for a lot of uncertainty. For example, in California, we think Sanders could get anywhere from 26 to 39 percent of the vote, while Biden could get anywhere from 21 percent to 32 percent. And those are merely 80 percent confidence intervals; vote shares will fall outside of those ranges 20 percent of the time.

But Biden sure seems to have a lot of upside in today’s contests, especially when you consider that even the polls above aren’t even pricing in the full impact of the last 72 hours. Most of them still included Buttigieg and Klobuchar as options, even though some respondents answered them knowing that they had dropped out. Perhaps Biden’s rally in Texas last night and endorsement from former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke could help him there; that’s also too recent to be reflected in any of the polling.

On the other hand, millions of early votes have already been cast by mail-in states like California and Colorado, where Sanders has been (and remains) strong. When watching the results tonight, you should be careful; early ballots are counted first in some states (though not all) and they may not match election-night returns. Early voters can also skew older than younger ones, which can be a disadvantage for candidates such as Sanders who rely on young voters.

And in terms of delegates, it’s possible for either Biden or Sanders to walk away from Super Tuesday with a big lead. Our model thinks Biden could get as many as 639 delegates or as few as 341, and Sanders could get as few as 325 or as many as 608. We’ll only know after all today’s votes have been counted — which, thanks to those mail-in ballots in the West, could take several days

[Teenwolf]

wow, good thing I didnt place any bets on my prediction that Biden was toast. What a strange, unpredictable reversal of fortune for him.

I'll probably regret this, but I'm excited to watch Biden for the next 8 months.

If Biden is the Democratic nominee, right wingers are gonna have an incredibly enjoyable general election. You should be excited for Trump to obliterate him.

I'm also glad I didn't bet money at this time.

[revo]

Biden won Massachusetts and Minnesota handily, yet never even campaigned in either state. Same with Maine, although it's closer there.

He won Virginia by a whopping 30%+ and spent just $225k in ads in-state -- compared to Bloomberg's $23m, which netted him just 9%.

[Teenwolf]

Couple thoughts:
*Warren holding out is really doing no favors for Sanders or the progressives. I can’t figure out her angle because she is alienating the folks she would need to be the compromise candidate in a contested convention. Bernie needs her to drop out immediately.
* Biden owes Clyburn A LOT (and Klob and Pete a little). Cute to see Beto still thinks he’s relevant, bless his heart.
* I think Sanders remarks on Castro definitely hurt him—especially given that a lot of people just started paying attention to this whole process last week. Just not a savvy thing to do and a totally unforced error.
* If Bloomberg drops out today (and I believe he will) I think that would about wrap it up. NExt few states a good ones for Biden with lower Hispanic populations where Sanders has done well.
* would be kind of funny if Gabbard was on the debate stage on the 15th as one of the Final Four after so many other stronger candidates dropped out. She will absolutely savage Biden, but I think it will be too late.
* I am amazed at how quickly this whole thing changed

If Warren had dropped out before getting embarrassed like she did throughout super Tuesday, narrative from her endorsement as well as her voters moving to him would have been enough to propel him to a win....

What a legit progressive, screwing over the guy she claimed to support in favor of elevating a senile surefire loser like Biden... what incredible political instinct she exhibits. Her campaign manager stated the point of their campaign was to hurt Bernie Sanders. The game is over, she was never a progressive. She's a power hungry "player in the game," she told everyone herself but they didn't listen.

[Teenwolf]

Biden won Massachusetts and Minnesota handily, yet never even campaigned in either state. Same with Maine, although it's closer there.

He won Virginia by a whopping 30%+ and spent just $225k in ads in-state -- compared to Bloomberg's $23m, which netted him just 9%.

Hillary showed us how well a candidate does when they have no enthusiasm backing them and don't visit the states that matter.

You celebrate this fact?! Good fucking luck in the general.

[revo]

No, what Biden said yesterday is disqualifying.

Dude said he was running for Senate, said "if you dont support me, vote for the other Biden", and name dropped working with someone in the Obama admin when that person has been dead over 20 years. This was yesterday!

You don't think all of these obvious signs of mental decline happening in one day signify anything? He doesn't know where he is or what he's saying. He's claiming being arrested in South Africa, multiple times, a demonstrable lie, said he never advocated to cut entitlements, another demonstrable lie. That's all he has left is lies and Obama nostalgia.

I'm really going to enjoy picking your Biden avatar.

Boy, this one didn't age well.

Hillary showed us how well a candidate does when they have no enthusiasm backing them and don't visit the states that matter.

You celebrate this fact?! Good fucking luck in the general.

Cmon now. You're starting to go into hysterics.

There was no enthusiasm? Did you see this turnaround??

And he didn't visit the states because he seemingly had no chance there. This is totally different than the general election. Jeez louise.

[Teenwolf]

Boy, this one didn't age well.




Cmon now. You're starting to go into hysterics.

There was no enthusiasm? Did you see this turnaround??

And he didn't visit the states because he seemingly had no chance there. This is totally different than the general election. Jeez louise.

I'm glad you're having fun now.

You don't realize what a disaster running Biden is because you refuse to see his mental decline.

I'm sure I'll enjoy pointing out what a brutal choice Biden is as he shoves and pushes voters, sniffs their hair and calls them Margaret Thatcher... should be a fun general showing what a braindead loser and compulsive liar so many of you are backing.

But by all means, have fun for the time being.

[B-Fly]

Biden was near the bottom of my rankings as a candidate, but as reflected by Elizabeth Warren's awful performance, I'm not reflective of the Democratic voters. (My personal ranking going into last night was Warren, Sanders, Bloomberg, Biden, Gabbard.) Like Sour Masher, I don't "blame" the Democratic establishment for endorsing their own, because of course. Ultimately, it's up to the voters, and the voters are neither as progressive nor as obsessed with intelligence and attention to policy detail as I am.

Because it would be anathema for Sanders' most devoted troops to say it, I will. Black voters remain the most important demographic block in the Democratic primary electorate, and they ultimately looked at their choices and decided on Biden, with Clyburn's endorsement being the trigger that rallied the troops first in South Carolina, which then turned the entire tide of the race. Look at Alabama, where Biden outperformed his polls by like 30% - a clear indication of a late near-unification of Black voters around Biden, which carried through to other states where the electorate was more diverse, e.g., Texas, where Biden scored a huge upset based largely on heavy Black support from the urban centers. If he can sustain this level of Black support and draw Black voter turnout akin to what Obama drew in his two victories, and I would assume Barack and Michelle Obama would be everywhere for him leading up to the General, then he has a strong chance of defeating Trump by targeting a repeat of the Obama 2012 electoral map.

[frae]

Biden is far from perfect, but there does seem to be enthusiasm based on some turnout numbers...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485850-voter-turnout-in-virginia-nearly-doubles-from-2016

"Nearly twice as many voters cast their ballots in Virginia’s Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday as in 2016.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, some 1.3 million votes had been counted in the commonwealth. That’s nearly double the roughly 780,000 votes cast in the state’s 2016 Democratic primary race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The number of votes also surpassed the 986,000 cast in the 2008 primary."

https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-texas-democratic-primary-turnout-exceeds-2016-vote-totals-2020-3

Texas is now over 2 million votes for 2020 on the NYT site and 2016 was 1.4

NC 1.1 million in 2016 1.3 million last night

MN had a caucus in 2016 so that data isn't relevant, but Biden won 3/4 of the bigger delegate states and won VA and NC by a lot so that turnout all seemed to go his way. Also while Sanders has won a lot of the young vote he has not actually increased voter turnout among 18-29-year-olds where he needed it. The data I have seen so far seems to indicate that young people aren't coming out in any more numbers than usual.

Lastly, I don't see how the general election is a blowout. What state that Hillary won does Biden lose? I think with Biden at the top it is going to be a 2016 map again where Trump needs to hit that inside straight of PA WI and MI to win, but Biden does have a chance in FL and AZ. Biden's biggest flaw, being a gaffe machine, lags behind Trump's gaffes and lies so if you are really torn on who to vote for and that is an issue for you I don't think either gets an advantage. Anyway, I am getting way ahead of myself, but I don't see a blowout with Biden at the top. I also am not insane enough to start saying there is a clear win.

[revo]

Biden is far from perfect, but there does seem to be enthusiasm based on some turnout numbers...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485850-voter-turnout-in-virginia-nearly-doubles-from-2016

"Nearly twice as many voters cast their ballots in Virginia’s Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday as in 2016.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, some 1.3 million votes had been counted in the commonwealth. That’s nearly double the roughly 780,000 votes cast in the state’s 2016 Democratic primary race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

The number of votes also surpassed the 986,000 cast in the 2008 primary."

https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-texas-democratic-primary-turnout-exceeds-2016-vote-totals-2020-3

Texas is now over 2 million votes for 2020 on the NYT site and 2016 was 1.4

NC 1.1 million in 2016 1.3 million last night

MN had a caucus in 2016 so that data isn't relevant, but Biden won 3/4 of the bigger delegate states and won VA and NC by a lot so that turnout all seemed to go his way. Also while Sanders has won a lot of the young vote he has not actually increased voter turnout among 18-29-year-olds where he needed it. The data I have seen so far seems to indicate that young people aren't coming out in any more numbers than usual.

Lastly, I don't see how the general election is a blowout. What state that Hillary won does Biden lose? I think with Biden at the top it is going to be a 2016 map again where Trump needs to hit that inside straight of PA WI and MI to win, but Biden does have a chance in FL and AZ. Biden's biggest flaw, being a gaffe machine, lags behind Trump's gaffes and lies so if you are really torn on who to vote for and that is an issue for you I don't think either gets an advantage. Anyway, I am getting way ahead of myself, but I don't see a blowout with Biden at the top. I also am not insane enough to start saying there is a clear win.

There's going to be plenty of enthusiasm for a nominee who isn't far left (the market thinks so, as it's up 700 pts thanks to a 'Bye Bye Bernie' scenario). Sanders wouldn't have won in the general because he was unable to get the suburban white vote, the black vote and most importantly of all, the independents.

Biden isn't perfect, but he's better than both alternatives left.

If Biden's mental decline is as bad as TW exaggerates it is, then why would Mayor Pete and Klobuchar, two competitors who saw his every move on the campaign trail, have instantly backed him? Why not Bloomberg, if they wanted a moderate?