Election 2020

[nots]

FWIW, $350 is 1/100th of your annual salary, not 1/10. #NOTmathnerd

$350 a MONTH comes out to $4200 a year and is actually More than a 1/10 of my annual salary, thanks for the Help.

Yeah, I figured that’s what you were trying to convey after I reread it. Still wasn’t accurate, but I got what you were trying to get to. #stillamathnerd

[B-Fly]

Fears of moderates voting Trump over Sanders are overblown. Look at these hardcore centrists in this article all saying they will absolutely vote for Sanders. Who is this mythical centrist so turned off by Sanders as to vote Trump? I'm skeptical.

I find it hilarious that centrists spent years saying "whoever the nominee is, Sanders supporters need to get behind them"... now that the shoe is on the other foot, they wont make the same commitment.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-trump-nominee

I agree. Moderate Democrats are very likely to support Sanders in the general election. I know my parents will, even though Sanders is probably their last choice among the field of legitimate contenders because they view him as too extreme. Neoconservatives who voted for Clinton over Trump (such as my father-in-law and uncle-in-law and one of my law school friends) may vote for Trump over Sanders (or vote 3rd party, or stay home). But I don't know how material that group is. The types of independents or moderate Republicans who vote for Democrats like Klobuchar or Bullock or Manchin are another group that could potentially be available to Klobuchar or Bloomberg or Buttigieg but not Sanders or Warren. But again, I don't know how material that group is. Or what the trade off is against the material number of folks in swing states who would come out for Sanders but wouldn't come out for a "corporatist" Democrat, either staying home or voting Green. As I've said many times, each candidate in this race has a potential path to victory, but which voters they can turn out or poach differs from one candidate to the next.

While I'm not a centrist, I certainly did think that "whoever the nominee is, Sanders supporters need to get behind them", but I absolutely feel the exact same way about the need for everybody to get behind Sanders if he's the Democratic nominee.

[Stephen]

While I'm not a centrist, I certainly did think that "whoever the nominee is, Sanders supporters need to get behind them", but I absolutely feel the exact same way about the need for everybody to get behind Sanders if he's the Democratic nominee.

This is my big concern summed up nicely.

Of the remaining Democrats in the field I'll rally behind any of them (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) because they are all clearly better options than continuing with Trump.

I believe that for the most part a majority of supporters of all of the candidates other than Sanders will support the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.

Recent history has shown that hasn't been the case for as many of Bernie's supporters and I've seen very little to give me much confidence that it will be different now.

[Ken]

I think presenting it as a binary choice is a mistake.

Some groups of moderates, who may vote in droves for a moderate Democrat if given the option, may choose not to vote at all when presented with Sanders vs Trump as the only options.

[B-Fly]

I think presenting it as a binary choice is a mistake.

Some groups of moderates, who may vote in droves for a moderate Democrat if given the option, may choose not to vote at all when presented with Sanders vs Trump as the only options.

In my opinion, because it's essentially a binary result (the chances of anyone other than Trump or the Democratic nominee winning the election are essentially nil), I think it *should* be a binary choice, even for those who are not particularly happy with either choice.

[Teenwolf]

This is my big concern summed up nicely.

Of the remaining Democrats in the field I'll rally behind any of them (with varying degrees of enthusiasm) because they are all clearly better options than continuing with Trump.

I believe that for the most part a majority of supporters of all of the candidates other than Sanders will support the Democratic nominee no matter who it is.

Recent history has shown that hasn't been the case for as many of Bernie's supporters and I've seen very little to give me much confidence that it will be different now.

This is wrong, but not surprising that you parrot MSM narrative about Bernie.

Bernie supporters from the 2016 primary supported Hillary more than Hillary supporters backing Obama in 2008.

Finally, Clinton is somewhat right that she had “convinced [her] supporters to vote for” Obama, but the idea that Sanders hadn’t done the same for her is patently untrue. Exit polling had 15 percent of Clinton-supporting Democrats voting for McCain in 2008. A recent study showed 12 percent of Sanders voters ended up going for Trump. If anything, Sanders convinced a little more of his supporters than Clinton did.

And it’s not surprising he did. Sanders ultimately swallowed his pride, endorsed Clinton, campaigned with her, and sternly warned his backers at the Democratic National Convention of the disaster that would unfold if they refused to vote for her.

Has this boosted your confidence?

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/09/c...imary-new-book

[Teenwolf]

No offense to any moderates, but this is my view of them as a group.

They prefer a feeling of security, nothing is fundamentally going to change. They want to put the country back on auto-pilot, so everyone just stops fighting. Their fear of Sanders is derived from mainstream media, hosted by idiots like Chuck Todd yesterday comparing Sanders' supporters to an "army of Brownshirts", comparing the first major Jewish candidate for POTUS to Hitler. It's not surprising they've absorbed so much fear and hostility towards Sanders. Will this affect moderates to the point of keeping them home in a Sanders/Trump race? I'm not sure. I would think the media would stop these insane attacks on Sanders if he wins the nomination, and the media attacks on Trump in '16 only fueled him, so its uncertain how much affect it would have even if it continued.

At the end of the day, the 2016 general election was won by depressing turnout. Most of the usual voters came out, but Clinton's status quo campaign didn't excite anybody. Bernie's base is the opposite of seeking an auto-pilot candidate, and that's why they fight harder than the others, and that's why they would turn out the most independents and typical non-voters. It's like GITH says about economics, most people on this board are relatively wealthy and comfortable. They don't see the motivation for a change candidate. But there's a lot more people suffering in poverty who wouldn't turn out for anybody but Bernie than there are moderates who normally vote who would flip to Trump. Probably by a ratio of 1000-1.

[Stephen]

This is wrong, but not surprising that you parrot MSM narrative about Bernie.

You don't know anything about me, but hey - if you want to put me in some box to feed your sense of intellectual superiority and need to be condescending then please go right ahead.

We'll all just fall into the same trap the Democrats/Progressive/Liberals/etc fall into every time - we can't get out of the way of our egos and the idea that individually we are smarter than everyone one else and anyone who disagrees is an idiot or a puppet.

[Teenwolf]

You don't know anything about me, but hey - if you want to put me in some box to feed your sense of intellectual superiority and need to be condescending then please go right ahead.

We'll all just fall into the same trap the Democrats/Progressive/Liberals/etc fall into every time - we can't get out of the way of our egos and the idea that individually we are smarter than everyone one else and anyone who disagrees is an idiot or a puppet.

Are you denying that you parrot an MSM narrative that's been disproven? Or did you come to this conclusion about Bernie supporters abandoning whoever the nominee is on your own?

You made a baseless claim. I posted a link to show that your assumption is wrong. What's the problem?

[Ken]

In my opinion, because it's essentially a binary result (the chances of anyone other than Trump or the Democratic nominee winning the election are essentially nil), I think it *should* be a binary choice, even for those who are not particularly happy with either choice.

Oh I don't disagree with you at all, I'm just saying we should talk about reality and not utopia. A bunch of people won't vote. And factors that keep people away from the polls voting against Trump are very relevant in the discussion.

[Teenwolf]

New Hampshire votes today.

Sanders seems like a lock to win, Pete a lock to get 2nd, margin of victory the only question. 3rd to 5th is where the action is. Looks like Klobuchar 3rd, Warren 4th, Biden 5th, which is an ideal order for Sanders. If both Warren and Biden fall into 4/5 behind Klobuchar, that would create a huge media hype machine around Klobuchar, and effectively end the campaigns for Biden and Warren. With Klobuchar having zero money, zero organization in the next states, and zero black support, I love it.

Also should be interesting to see how Tulsi and Yang finish. Tulsi could surprise a little bit, but unlikely either bring out a major surprise of support.

[gcstomp]

Bernie supporters wont be all in on a non Bernie nominee https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sand...ollege-1483831

that you posted "Bernie supporters from the 2016 primary supported Hillary more than Hillary supporters backing Obama in 2008." and then highlighted "Exit polling had 15 percent of Clinton-supporting Democrats voting for McCain in 2008. A recent study showed 12 percent of Sanders voters ended up going for Trump. If anything, Sanders convinced a little more of his supporters than Clinton did." just means you dont get big picture. Yes, Bernie supported Hillary more than Hillary supported Obama back in 08. So? Cross support for both cases sucked. It just means that there are multiple issues true at once, and in no Dem cases are they as united as Rep who are lockstep in 90%+ support of Trump, who little more than 3+ years ago was widely considered trump a clown not worthy of even a tour day pass to WH. Ex, Graham went from calling trump a race baiting, xenophobic idiot right before his election to now being a complete Tonto sidekick attack dog to anyone who questions trump.

you also posted a link to a jacobinmag opinion piece that paints HRC is a poor light, rightly so I think, and posts that HRC did not support obama as much as bernie supported HRC, as we point out its still sucky level of support in both cases relative to the fascist in chief. Posted op piece doesnt counter the fact that dems support is tribal, fractured, and not at all in unison goose step down main street like the 90%+ trump support.

[Teenwolf]

Bernie supporters wont be all in on a non Bernie nominee https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sand...ollege-1483831

that you posted "Bernie supporters from the 2016 primary supported Hillary more than Hillary supporters backing Obama in 2008." and then highlighted "Exit polling had 15 percent of Clinton-supporting Democrats voting for McCain in 2008. A recent study showed 12 percent of Sanders voters ended up going for Trump. If anything, Sanders convinced a little more of his supporters than Clinton did." just means you dont get big picture. Yes, Bernie supported Hillary more than Hillary supported Obama back in 08. So? Cross support for both cases sucked. It just means that there are multiple issues true at once, and in no Dem cases are they as united as Rep who are lockstep in 90%+ support of Trump, who little more than 3+ years ago was widely considered trump a clown not worthy of even a tour day pass to WH. Ex, Graham went from calling trump a race baiting, xenophobic idiot right before his election to now being a complete Tonto sidekick attack dog to anyone who questions trump.

you also posted a link to a jacobinmag opinion piece that paints HRC is a poor light, rightly so I think, and posts that HRC did not support obama as much as bernie supported HRC, as we point out its still sucky level of support in both cases relative to the fascist in chief. Posted op piece doesnt counter the fact that dems support is tribal, fractured, and not at all in unison goose step down main street like the 90%+ trump support.

I think Bernie's turnout numbers being as high as they were for Hillary, considering how she offered them no concessions or voice within the party, is pretty remarkable actually.

I agree with a lot of this. Its disappointing to me that centrists are afraid other centrists would not unite around Sanders. But I think they've mostly come to that conclusion based on a media narrative about real life voters that isn't true. So I have faith that if the media adapts, most casual voters will adapt as well. I'm unsure what the media will do, considering they're making nazi comparisons as of yesterday. But again, those voters aren't the target, it's non-voters, and I think Bernie turns them out better than the rest.

EDIT TO ADD: Did Republicans think Trump would be able to unite the party in '16? Seems to me they were equally united against Trump at this stage in the race, as R's underestimated Trump's populist appeal. History is repeating.

[Sour Masher]

I don't think it is not an issue, so much, of uniting behind Bernie--everyone who is against Trump will want to vote for any candidate opposing him. For me, for Bernie or Warren specifically, but for any candidate, really, is the question of how effective will Trump's FUD strategy on the economy going to be? I think he will use this strategy for any opponent, if he is smart. I do worry a little more about how effective it will be against Bernie, because he is a self-described socialist, and that is still a bad word to a lot of voters. Can Trump effectively convince swing voters that free health care is nice, but not if it collapses the economy and will lead to you losing your job? Again, Trump is going to use this argument against any of the candidates, but it may be more effective against the two progressives, and especially Bernie. But can Bernie effectively fight that message? That will be key. Trump will try to convince voters that he is a rising tide that will lift all ships, and that without him, everything will collapse and be worse. Bernie will have to convince people that Trump's rising tide has not lifted all boats and never will, and that he can.

[The Feral Slasher]

wow, just saw this regarding Bloomberg. I have to imagine it will be problematic


https://twitter.com/BenjaminPDixon/s...73723720396808

I suspected they would just ignore it, but Now CNN airs a segment attacking the person who tweeted out this video