Election 2020

[Kevin Seitzer]

She could still run!

[The Feral Slasher]

She could still run!

Lol, i saw an interview about a week ago where she was sure she would beat Trump this time if she ran again

[The Feral Slasher]

She could still run!

She would have to beat out John Kerry, lol

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...nders-n1128476

Former Secretary of State John Kerry — one of Joe Biden's highest-profile endorsers — was overheard Sunday on the phone at a Des Moines hotel explaining what he would have to do to enter the presidential race amid "the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic Party — down whole."

Sitting in the lobby restaurant of the Renaissance Savery hotel, Kerry was overheard by an NBC News analyst saying "maybe I'm f---ing deluding myself here" and explaining that in order to run, he'd have to step down from the board of Bank of America and give up his ability to make paid speeches. Kerry said donors like venture capitalist Doug Hickey would have to "raise a couple of million," adding that such donors "now have the reality of Bernie."

[Sour Masher]

Hey TW and other Bernie die hards, I'm having a hard time selling Bernie to my wife. TW, you have mentioned your wife has said she thinks Bernie could do better on racial awareness issues, and I'm wondering what stuff you pointed towards in response. My wife is in that space and I don't have much of an answer for specifically in regards to this issue. Do you have any clips I can point to that express an awareness of the black experience in this country without deflecting the question too general issues of economic disparity? She thinks he only sees economic disparity and seems oblivious to racial issues beyond that. Some clips would be handy, if you can point me to him speaking on these things in ways that don't equate black with poverty (she is especially turned off by him doing that--reducing and generalizing black to poor and how he will help the poor--in response to questions asking about the black experience in America).

[The Feral Slasher]

I think that is a difficult request for a number of reasons. Perhaps you might look for stuff written by Nina Turner who is Sander's campaign co chair I believe. I saw an article she wrote comparing Sanders and Biden. But it may be hard to find stuff that doesn't contain economic arguments because that is so central to his campaign. Anyway, it's an interesting question and I'll be interested in anyone posts a response. It would also be interesting to see info on other candidates.

[madducks]

She would have to beat out John Kerry, lol

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...nders-n1128476

Former Secretary of State John Kerry — one of Joe Biden's highest-profile endorsers — was overheard Sunday on the phone at a Des Moines hotel explaining what he would have to do to enter the presidential race amid "the possibility of Bernie Sanders taking down the Democratic Party — down whole."

Sitting in the lobby restaurant of the Renaissance Savery hotel, Kerry was overheard by an NBC News analyst saying "maybe I'm f---ing deluding myself here" and explaining that in order to run, he'd have to step down from the board of Bank of America and give up his ability to make paid speeches. Kerry said donors like venture capitalist Doug Hickey would have to "raise a couple of million," adding that such donors "now have the reality of Bernie."

The DNC is probably on the phone with Al Gore right about now.

[Teenwolf]

My wife has never been convinced that Bernie has a solid record of speaking about black issues without connecting those issues to other communities. He clearly doesn't engage in rhetoric about black empowerment without providing policies for the context in which he's talking.

I guess it's time to simply admit that Bernie may not be perfect in representing exactly what each voter wants. I wish he would talk more about electoral reforms, paper ballots, etc, among many other things. I wish he didn't support the dairy lobby, I wish he didn't apologize for Zephyr Teachout's Biden corruption piece, lots of points of disagreement. But at the end of the day, Bernie is by far less problematic on race than any of Pete, Biden, or Warren. Could he be better speaking on race? Absolutely. Could he be better about speaking to the material conditions which exacerbate the impoverishment and degradation of black people? I don't think he could. He speaks about clean water in Flint, about raising the minimum wage, black student debt loads tackled through debt relief and free college, legalizing marijuana, expunging marijuana convictions, further criminal justice reform, black mother mortality rates, etc. He does have the platform to inspire black voters, but as Feral Slasher says, he does better letting black leaders speak to those issues than doing so himself. Nina Turner, Cornel West, Killer Mike, etc. Even my wife admits that despite these issues of rhetoric on race, he's still clearly the best candidate. So I guess it comes down to how much you ding him for the blind spot. Is it worth withholding a vote?

[Teenwolf]

Killer Mike talks about Bernie's political revolution in terms beyond racism, but bringing together all oppressed minorities. If Bernie had made the exact same speech, it would come across as disregarding black issues in favor of broader class issues, but when Killer Mike makes the case, it resonates. I have faith Bernie's amazing surrogates can spread the message better than he can, and he'll need them to continue to do so.

[Teenwolf]

"Its because he's not asking you to vote for him on matters of color, or matters of people of color, on matters of just being black, or just being sympathetic to our cause for over 60 years. He was a guy that was chained to black people protesting 50, 60 years ago. He's asking because his policy directly affects our community."

That's Killer Mike talking about why he supports Sanders, after being asked about the failings of Booker and Harris, etc.

The quote is found within this interview here.

[revo]

And today officially kicks off the 2020 election cycle with the Iowa Caucuses!

[Teenwolf]

One more endorsement that I found powerful in explaining Bernie's refusal to focus on identity politics as a way of speaking to broader groups of oppressed people. She doesn't say that, but that was my takeaway.

[B-Fly]

Bernie is rolling and Biden is faltering, such that even Biden's once tremendous lead in South Carolina appears to be fading. I'm starting to think it will end up being Bloomberg as the anti-Bernie candidate after Super Tuesday, which as a Jew is both amazing and nerve racking for me, in the context of already rising anti-Semitism in the country.

Like Teenwolf suggested, I think the rule change that puts Bloomberg on the debate stage in Nevada may actually work against Bloomberg. He doesn't have much debating experience and I don't think it's a good showcase for what he is good at, which is management and execution, not elocution. But if he's a legitimate contender then he needs to show whether or not he can handle himself well in a debate, since we don't want a candidate who could get smoked by Trump in the general election debates.

[Teenwolf]

And today officially kicks off the 2020 election cycle with the Iowa Caucuses!

How do you feel about Biden's chances?

I'm thinking Bernie wins on first choice over Biden by at least 5 pts, and maintains a lead of at least 2 pts after realignment, but has a huge ceiling for a blowout of Bernie's turnout theory works. I've heard millenial turnout could triple over 2016.

I think if Warren overperforms polling and Pete underperforms, it could elevate Warren to 2nd ahead of Biden after realignment as her best case scenario. I think Klobuchar and Pete voters are more likely to switch to Warren as a 2nd choice than Biden, so she's not toast yet.

Biden, I think looks like a ship taking on water. He's aggressively manhandling prospective voters, telling several to vote for other people, insulting and ruffling shirts and poking them in the chest and punching them in the shoulder. He's a trainwreck, so much so that he was put on a gag order, handing out his talking points instead of actually delivering them. I'm hoping Iowa gives Biden a decisive loss. I want a solid gap between him and Sanders on both 1st and 2nd ballots, and I would love if Biden finished below 2nd.

I'm nervously excited, but I also realize that a Bernie loss could possibly end his candidacy entirely, so I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch.

From all of the media I've absorbed, I think his strategies have seemed really strong, momentum is in his favor, and I always figured he would outperform polling on caucus day...

Sanders 24.2%
Biden 20.2%
Buttigieg 16.4%
Warren 15.6%
Klobuchar 8.6%
Yang 3.8%
Steyer 3.0%
Gabbard 1.2%

For 2nd round, Yang, Steyer (climate change/single issue voters), & Gabbard go largely to Sanders, Klobuchar splits too evenly among Warren/Pete/Biden to make a difference for any of them. Warren and Pete fall below viability in equal districts, Warren go largely to Sanders, Buttigieg go to Warren or Biden slightly... I think 2nd round actually looks quite good for Sanders. Especially if Yang/Gabbard account for closer to 8% on 1st ballot than the polling showing 5%. They could be the most decisive, as they could go 60-70% to Sanders, most of the rest will go home.

That's all I got on Iowa. Excited to see it unfold!

[B-Fly]

An old Montclair, NJ friend of mine, Tanya Keith, who now lives in Des Moines is a super-charged Iowa caucus activist who has gotten quite a bit of press this year:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-iowa-a-long-and-bruising-hunt-for-a-candidate-to-love/2020/01/26/6f26a2ce-3ece-11ea-b90d-5652806c3b3a_story.html

She was in love with Booker and brokenhearted when he dropped out of the race, but is now strong behind Warren. I suspect that if Warren falls below viability she will switch to Klobuchar if Klobuchar is an option, but she seems really loathe to fall in with either Biden (whose alpha male aggressive style she finds contemptable) and Sanders (whose overly aggressive and hostile supporters have turned her off repeatedly and at every opportunity). She also doesn't like Buttigieg, so Steyer and Yang would be her choices behind Warren and Klobuchar if they're available.

The whole Iowa Caucus thing is so captivating to me.

[nots]

Need Biden to crater hard today so the moderate vote can rally around Bloomberg (speaking for myself).
The parallels between Trump and the RNC establishment in 2016 and Sanders and the DNC establishment this year are striking. RNC never collectively found an establishment candidate. The main difference as I see it for the Democrats is Bloomberg can buy his way to legitimacy and relevance in a way that Cruz, Rubio et al couldn’t.