Election 2020

[Kevin Seitzer]

Sometimes it is affected by the dem vs republican spending split

And if you have one candidate who decides to spend a lot on TV ads, you might just have to go with your gut on how that affects things.

[Teenwolf]

Bloomberg has seen his support skyrocket in the Morning Consult poll, now up to 12% nationally, into 4th. Terrifying.

His only path to winning is a brokered convention, as well as likely a Biden exit before Super Tuesday so they aren't splitting votes. If Sanders wins the first 3 states, I don't think anybody could catch him, and polling shows that scenario being somewhat likely right now. I think Biden's falling apart, so it could happen that Bloomberg could step in to usurp his support before Super Tuesday. Not likely though.

I still think it's most likely Bloomberg runs 3rd party vs Sanders than paying a $Bn in ads supporting Sanders, but B-Fly assured me to trust Bloomberg, so I guess we'll see.

I want to see Bloomberg on the debate stage so he can be exposed. I wonder if they change the donation rules before the remaining 5 debates are done to showcase Bloomberg.

Nailed it.

Bernie needed another punching bag. Bloomberg will be perfect.

[The Feral Slasher]

Dem candidates will no longer have to have a minimum # of donors for the 2/19 debates, just a polling minimum (10% in any poll) or delegate minimum (one from either Iowa or NH).

I found this interesting, because at first glance I would think this is a favor to Bloomberg who recently made donations to the DNC. But at the same time if he steals votes from anyone it seems like it is probably Biden. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K

[GwynnInTheHall]

Is it really Republican stoked fears of socialism if he considers himself a socialist?

Democratic Socialist.

Big difference if you're paying attention.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Sometimes it is affected by the dem vs republican spending split

And the there's the Flippin Factor (which REALLY tilts the scale toward Sanders)

[Teenwolf]

Democratic Socialist.

Big difference if you're paying attention.

Most political science folks think Bernie is more firmly of the 'Social Democrat' framework than a 'Democratic Socialist' one. But Bernie defines what he stands for very clearly by always focusing on policy, so the 'Socialist' brand has been overly weaponized to the point that its effectiveness has severely waned. I think and hope so, anyway.

[The Feral Slasher]

And the there's the Flippin Factor (which REALLY tilts the scale toward Sanders)

Can u provide an inflationary calculation for the flippin factor ?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Most political science folks think Bernie is more firmly of the 'Social Democrat' framework than a 'Democratic Socialist' one. But Bernie defines what he stands for very clearly by always focusing on policy, so the 'Socialist' brand has been overly weaponized to the point that its effectiveness has severely waned. I think and hope so, anyway.

Obviously not.

[Teenwolf]

And the there's the Flippin Factor (which REALLY tilts the scale toward Sanders)

You mean the caucus process, and the 2nd round?

I'm really glad that the DNC is releasing separate results of the 1st and 2nd round of voting. It should provide more room for campaigns to spin things positively after a loss "well, we did well in 2nd choice, showing our appeal to new voters", or "well, we did better on the 1st ballot, showing our bases' commitment, now we need more outreach," etc.

[The Feral Slasher]

Obviously not.

I agree, i think the socialist label is still quite affective for certain groups

[Ken]

You mean the caucus process, and the 2nd round?

No he means Ken Flippin

[The Feral Slasher]

Good stuff! Thanks.

The 65+ group is no surprise. But the 35-49 and 50-64 groups are. I suspect that the working class groups are shying away from Sanders due to their republican stoked fears of socialism.

The difference between age groups is absolutely bonkers. Sanders leading Biden 53 to 3 among 18-34 year olds compared to older folks is really something. That was what I was trying to get at in my post a few days ago when I accidentally labeled all college educated folks as selfish, ignorant bastards. I was really trying to reconcile Sanders popularity with the fact that the older college educated crowd I have conversed with find him completely extreme, equivalent to communist. I just find it interesting the completely different perspectives that different groups view Sanders thru.

[Sour Masher]

The difference between age groups is absolutely bonkers. Sanders leading Biden 53 to 3 among 18-34 year olds compared to older folks is really something. That was what I was trying to get at in my post a few days ago when I accidentally labeled all college educated folks as selfish, ignorant bastards. I was really trying to reconcile Sanders popularity with the fact that the older college educated crowd I have conversed with find him completely extreme, equivalent to communist. I just find it interesting the completely different perspectives that different groups view Sanders thru.

It will be interesting to see if this a real tide shift in America politics long term, or if some of these Bernie supporters will do what the hippies did in becoming yuppies. As folks age, their perspectives change. As they gain more, their willingness to redistribute wealth and resources with those that have less sometimes lessens.

I have seen it in my own students. I teach some courses that are predominately under-represented and impoverished minorities (I choose to work with this program; it is the most professionally rewarding teaching I do). They are largely Bernie supporters (as are many of my more affluent students, I should add), but once when giving a lesson and using a gross and take home salary example I got a lot of questions and concerns. Like me, they grew up in poor households where taxes were not much of a factor (I didn't even know SS could be taxed until I was in my 30s, because it is the only source of retirement income for anyone in my family, and at that level of income, it isn't). When I let them know if and when they do get the higher paying jobs they want that they, of course, will have to pay more taxes, some seemed to think that wasn't all that fair--after years of poverty, if and when they get high paying jobs, they have to give a big chunk back? I did point out that those taxes are paid by those who make more to help folks who don't, like themselves right now in college, and their families. They liked that part, but were pretty deflated by the idea that a big chunk of their paychecks would go to taxes.

It was funny (but really understandable--I was just as financially ignorant at their age) and sad at the same time (of all groups, I assumed this one would understand the give they are getting now and the take that would be expected of them later when they can afford it). It reminds me of the baseball vets who seem to want to close the HOF door behind them, or 2nd gen immigrants who are against new immigrants. I guess it is a tale as old as time, but these numbers are stark. Maybe this generation as a whole will be different.

If this holds this time, as conservatives die out, the GOP will seem to have to redefine itself or fade away. The new relevant parties would be the moderate left and the progressive left.

[nots]

Democratic Socialist.

Big difference if you're paying attention.

You should let Bernie know that. He seems to be confused. Must not be paying attention.
‘I’m a socialist. Everybody knows that’.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/04/29/bernie-sanders-is-an-avowed-socialist-and-democrats-are-actually-pretty-ok-with-that/

I doubt he would object very much if I were to call him a socialist.

[The Feral Slasher]

It will be interesting to see if this a real tide shift in America politics long term, or if some of these Bernie supporters will do what the hippies did in becoming yuppies. As folks age, their perspectives change. As they gain more, their willingness to redistribute wealth and resources with those that have less sometimes lessens.

Absolutely. It also points to the criticality of dems trying to bring more young voters to the polls or writing them off and counting on older Biden voters to carry the day. Also worth noting, the poll likely dem voters. So the appeal to moderates/independents needs to be factored in