Election 2020

[The Feral Slasher]

I am not trying to get you to waiver in your support for Bernie at all. I was fishing for assurances that may not be there. That may be okay. Maybe you guys are right that Sanders is best aligned to beat Trump, because of how he inspires the disenfranchised. I am confused by TW bringing up Biden, who I have consistently said is a deeply flawed candidate. I have expressed concerns about Warren and Mayer Pete as well, the other front runners. But Sanders is the one surging now, so my concerns are with him at the moment--he looks like he may be the guy. It is a perplexing deflection to say, what about how these other candidates could lose to Trump. I agree, they all can, and that is scary!

But Sanders is scary too, and it is weird to me that Sanders supporters are perfectly willing to address how the other candidates could lose to Trump, but are not willing to address how Sanders could. I think he could. I wanted to know why you guys are so certain he will not. I thought it might be because I missed some talking points and strategies to make sure he does not lose the middle voters that ignore or dismiss Trump's racism, misogyny, crassness, etc, because they care more about the person in the mirror who may be doing well under Trump. Apparently, you guys do not think he can win those voters, and/or does not need those voters. Or maybe you think anything he might do to win them over would only serve to alienate his base. That may be true. Obviously, what Sanders has going for him above all others is the consistency and integrity of his platform. I know he would not and should not lose that, or he loses everything. I was not trying to suggest he should shift ideologically or that any of his supporters should stop supporting him. But I was hoping for assurances that he could sell his agenda and message to a group of voters I fear he may need. Clearly, you guys do not think he needs those voters, or do not think there is a way to win them over without compromising his platform. That reality is a bit scary to me.

There is no guarantee any of the candidates will beat Trump. And u could worry and fret about each of their weaknesses. My point is your comcerns based on your discussion with your friend seem a little overblown. He doesnt sound like he would vote for any of the Dems since he is doing so well under Trump. There are going to be lots of people like him. Anyway i think u should figure out who u think is the best candidate and support him or her and not worry too.much about if they are going to win, because that is impossible to know

That said, if i have time later i will try to address some of the items u listed as concerns

[Teenwolf]

I am not trying to get you to waiver in your support for Bernie at all. I was fishing for assurances that may not be there. That may be okay. Maybe you guys are right that Sanders is best aligned to beat Trump, because of how he inspires the disenfranchised. I am confused by TW bringing up Biden, who I have consistently said is a deeply flawed candidate. I have expressed concerns about Warren and Mayer Pete as well, the other front runners. But Sanders is the one surging now, so my concerns are with him at the moment--he looks like he may be the guy. It is a perplexing deflection to say, what about how these other candidates could lose to Trump. I agree, they all can, and that is scary!

But Sanders is scary too, and it is weird to me that Sanders supporters are perfectly willing to address how the other candidates could lose to Trump, but are not willing to address how Sanders could. I think he could. I wanted to know why you guys are so certain he will not. I thought it might be because I missed some talking points and strategies to make sure he does not lose the middle voters that ignore or dismiss Trump's racism, misogyny, crassness, etc, because they care more about the person in the mirror who may be doing well under Trump. Apparently, you guys do not think he can win those voters, and/or does not need those voters. Or maybe you think anything he might do to win them over would only serve to alienate his base. That may be true. Obviously, what Sanders has going for him above all others is the consistency and integrity of his platform. I know he would not and should not lose that, or he loses everything. I was not trying to suggest he should shift ideologically or that any of his supporters should stop supporting him. But I was hoping for assurances that he could sell his agenda and message to a group of voters I fear he may need. Clearly, you guys do not think he needs those voters, or do not think there is a way to win them over without compromising his platform. That reality is a bit scary to me.

So in your mind, you're worried about the Obama-->Trump voters first and foremost. Bernie is uniquely positioned as the best "change" candidate, and most populist, to steal Trump voters back to the Dems. After the 2nd quarter, Sanders led Biden with about 80% more donations from these Obama-->Trump districts. Since then, he's widened the gap to 300%. Does this seem like he's giving up on flipping Trump voters?

Further, polling shows the same Sanders edge with this group of Obama-->Trump voters, who were drawn to Trump's populist messages. "No more stupid wars" would be the easiest point for Sanders to crush Trump on. Biden would flail, and his own history would make it a wash. Trump ran on killing bad trade deals, then changed the name of NAFTA to appease his base. Sanders could win back the midwest on this point, Biden couldn't, as the architect of NAFTA he's a huge liability through the midwest. "Protecting Medicare, Medicade, and SS", Biden has publicly advocated for cutting these programs repeatedly, and would lose badly on the issue. Sanders would pull back the curtain on Trump's cuts to welfare programs in ways Biden couldn't. Are these enough reasons to see how Trump voters just want the least standard politician who will fight the hardest for their interests, and its reflected in the polls? Do you doubt those polls?

I mis-stated earlier my biggest Sanders concern, so I'll repeat it here. The US is much more economically left wing than people realize, but also more culturally right wing. So on issues of equality for LGBTQ people, minorities, women's rights, abortion, religious freedom, PC language, etc, voters are much more at risk of being turned off by "performative wokeness" than they are by his economic or foreign engagement policies. Luckily, issues of Sanders bowing to the demands of the performative wokeness crowd seem few and far between. Elizabeth Warren seems more vulnerable to this type of attack, given the type of campaign she's run. Which is funny, since more voters viewed Warren as the economic overhaul candidate before the primary, and Sanders was thought to be "too far left". Seems like they've switched roles there, but Sanders has always focused on the economic anxiety first and foremost, so I'm not surprised by this.

Am I making sense?

[Sour Masher]

So in your mind, you're worried about the Obama-->Trump voters first and foremost. Bernie is uniquely positioned as the best "change" candidate, and most populist, to steal Trump voters back to the Dems. After the 2nd quarter, Sanders led Biden with about 80% more donations from these Obama-->Trump districts. Since then, he's widened the gap to 300%. Does this seem like he's giving up on flipping Trump voters?

Further, polling shows the same Sanders edge with this group of Obama-->Trump voters, who were drawn to Trump's populist messages. "No more stupid wars" would be the easiest point for Sanders to crush Trump on. Biden would flail, and his own history would make it a wash. Trump ran on killing bad trade deals, then changed the name of NAFTA to appease his base. Sanders could win back the midwest on this point, Biden couldn't, as the architect of NAFTA he's a huge liability through the midwest. "Protecting Medicare, Medicade, and SS", Biden has publicly advocated for cutting these programs repeatedly, and would lose badly on the issue. Sanders would pull back the curtain on Trump's cuts to welfare programs in ways Biden couldn't. Are these enough reasons to see how Trump voters just want the least standard politician who will fight the hardest for their interests, and its reflected in the polls? Do you doubt those polls?

I mis-stated earlier my biggest Sanders concern, so I'll repeat it here. The US is much more economically left wing than people realize, but also more culturally right wing. So on issues of equality for LGBTQ people, minorities, women's rights, abortion, religious freedom, PC language, etc, voters are much more at risk of being turned off by "performative wokeness" than they are by his economic or foreign engagement policies. Luckily, issues of Sanders bowing to the demands of the performative wokeness crowd seem few and far between. Elizabeth Warren seems more vulnerable to this type of attack, given the type of campaign she's run. Which is funny, since more voters viewed Warren as the economic overhaul candidate before the primary, and Sanders was thought to be "too far left". Seems like they've switched roles there, but Sanders has always focused on the economic anxiety first and foremost, so I'm not surprised by this.

Am I making sense?

The first part, where you are arguing that Sanders is more likely to win than Biden doesn't make me feel better, because as I've said, Biden worries me a lot, so Sanders being better than Biden doesn't make me sleep well knowing Sanders will beat Trump.

Your second point, I did not agree with at first, because I was focused on Democratic voters. I do not believe Democratic voters, on the whole, are more economically liberal and less socially liberal. But that may be bias from my personal experience, as most people I know are socially liberal. But thinking about it more, you may be right specifically about voters Sanders can flip from Trump. Those folks may be more economically liberal than I realize and at the same time may be more socially conservative. I am not sure about that, but if you are just talking about the rhetoric of identity politics, you may have a point there.

Still, even if he wins some of those folks, don't you think he loses some folks who worry about how his economic policies will affect them negatively? It surprises me that you downplay that in favor of social issues. Is there any polling that voters favor Sanders' economic policies more than his social ones? That would surprise me. I still think Sanders' weakest demographic would be the affluent liberals you have conceded in the past favor Warren. You have focused on how he wins by playing to Biden's voters more than Warren's and Buttigieg's, and I agree that is the play in the primaries. I still worry about how he will message in the general, where I think he will need some of those Warren/Buttigieg voters. I was hoping he did have a strategy to make sure he won them over, and you could outline it, but from what I am reading here, that will not be his play. His play will be for the economically disenfranchised.

GITH made a point that almost has me feeling better when he said, those more affluent Democratic voters are going to fall in line for Sanders to beat Trump in the end. Maybe. I know every Democratic voter here would do that. I am not so sure all or most of the economically affluent liberals nationally, and especially in key states, will. As GITH said himself, the majority of people put their own interest first, and for affluent folks, that may mean not pulling the lever for Sanders. But I hope enough will. Or I hope he can win enough new voters not to need them.

[DMT]

There is no way Warren supporters would vote Trump over Sanders.

[Sour Masher]

And down goes Booker.

[B-Fly]

Or not. Idk. I just want Trump to lose, and have discovered a few people I know seem to think Sanders will take from them, and I wanted to feel better by finding out if Sanders has an answer for that. Clearly, his fervent supporters here think his path to victory lies in not reaching out to those who are doing well in this economy. It is reaching out to those who are not. FS, you said that is the majorty. I do not think the majority of .voters feel worse off economically right now (my own loathing of Trump is not based on my personal financial status at the moment, and those I work with, mostly Bernie supporters, do not hate Trump for economic reasons, or like Bernie because they think he will help them financially, well,.except my students; they want free college, they support Benie for moral reasons, but as GITH said, mamy voters vote for themselves, not to help others), but maybe he can reach those left behind that do not historicslly vote. I was hoping he had a strategy to reach my leaguemate, but I am getting he and those like him are not worth reaching out to, they will vote Trump no matter, what, and Sanders has this in the bag without them. I am unconvinced of that claim, but hope it is accurate.

It's not about "most voters", however, because only swingable voters and turnout models in a small handful of states matter. Many of the coastal states with the largest number of financially-privileged voters who are happy with the strength of the market/economy but who could still potentially vote Democratic in November 2020 are already locked into the blue column. California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, etc, don't suddenly become winnable for the GOP if the Democrats nominate Sanders.

So you'd have to look at the swingable voters in the swingable states. Where does Sanders turnout potentially exceed Biden turnout or Warren turnout or Buttigieg turnout, and where does it potentially fall vis-à-vis those alternatives in the following states: PA, MI, MN, WI, IA, FL, NH, NC, AZ, and maybe one split delegate in ME or NE. (Some models suggest Trump could steal back VA, NV or CO, where others suggest the Dems could steal OH, GA or even TX, but that's fool's gold.)

In all likelihood, since the rust belt won Trump the presidency in 2016, the rust belt is most likely to determine the presidency in 2020. And the demographics of the rust belt would seem to support the Sanders supporters' arguments that swingable voters are likely not "winners" in the Trump economy, and many would be receptive to Sanders' economic populism. That said, Biden has also shown a strong capacity to connect with and win the support of rust belt voters, and many of them are receptive to Biden's muscular patriotism, so I'm not sure which of the two has the best chance of defeating Trump head-to-head in those states. Early polling suggests Biden, but not by a lot, and I tend to agree with the Sanders supporters that the early polling probably underrepresents Sanders' youth support.

[nots]

This will give him more time to hang out with T-Bone and Corn Pop.
Still better than NJ's other senator though.

[Sour Masher]

This will give him more time to hang out with T-Bone and Corn Pop.
Still better than NJ's other senator though.

Pretty sure he will prioritize hanging with Rosario Dawson over T-Bone and Corn Pop.

[Sour Masher]

While I do not blame Sanders for assuring folks his VP won't be an "old white guy," and he promises to bring diversity to the WH (I think it is the right stance), it does surprise me a little, given how he has been lauded for not playing identity politics by TW and others. I guess any politicians is susceptible to those realities to an extent.

[The Feral Slasher]

Where are the stats to back up the claim that over 50% of Americans are "getting nothing and struggling to survive," especially relative to where they were 5 years ago? That seems hyperbolic to say the least. And all the matters in terms of who wins is the percentage of voters who feel they are doing well. Lots of the most disenfranchised do not vote. I already addressed above that maybe Bernie can get enough from that vast untapped population. I hope so, because it is becoming clear that no one has any evidence to share that Bernie has and can reach to the middle to get some of those "affluent liberals" that make up the power structure of the DNC, but whose votes apparently are not needed for Bernie to win.

78 % of americans living paycheck to paycheck

Most of these people are one bad accident or healthcare issue away from significant financial problems. If you want to claim they are better off than they were 5 years ago, fine. That isn't necessarily a good place. Sanders could easily make the case that his policies will make a real change for these people. And as B-Fly pointed out, it is worse in some areas of the country since strong blue states are mostly the upper end of the income scale.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2019/01/11/live-paycheck-to-paycheck-government-shutdown/#3e5708ea4f10

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/14/paycheck-to-paycheck-most-americans-struggle-financially-survey-says/39940123/

[The Feral Slasher]

While I do not blame Sanders for assuring folks his VP won't be an "old white guy," and he promises to bring diversity to the WH (I think it is the right stance), it does surprise me a little, given how he has been lauded for not playing identity politics by TW and others. I guess any politicians is susceptible to those realities to an extent.

I'll go on the record that he is just pandering. This is completely unacceptable what he is doing. I'm reconsidering my support

[The Feral Slasher]

The first part, where you are arguing that Sanders is more likely to win than Biden doesn't make me feel better, because as I've said, Biden worries me a lot, so Sanders being better than Biden doesn't make me sleep well knowing Sanders will beat Trump.

.

In all likelihood it will be one of those guys. And neither one is assured of beating Trump (nor is anyone else). Better get used to worrying.

[Sour Masher]

In all likelihood it will be one of those guys. And neither one is assured of beating Trump (nor is anyone else). Better get used to worrying.

You are no help . I think they should all be able to beat Trump in a landslide. The reality that is not true is depressing.

ETA: And that fact that 1jay of all people called Trump's good chances at winning well in advance of polling backing it up is depressing. My whole worldview is shaken. I better start planning for Cruz 2024.

[The Feral Slasher]

You are no help . I think they should all be able to beat Trump in a landslide. The reality that is not true is depressing.

ETA: And that fact that 1jay of all people called Trump's good chances at winning well in advance of polling backing it up is depressing. My whole worldview is shaken. I better start planning for Cruz 2024.

be strong, dude. 3 years down, only 5 to go. If it's only 1 so much the better.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'll go on the record that he is just pandering. This is completely unacceptable what he is doing. I'm reconsidering my support

This is a joke right??