Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

bernie sanders iowa 2020

I'm enjoying dipping back into mainstream media and the 'Bernie Might Win' barrage of articles. This one from CNN was enjoyable, even reading the dumb tradition of letting Republicans concern troll about Democrats chances, quoting who Karl Rove thinks the Dems should nominate to beat Trump. It's silly, a lot of it, but I find the slight air of panic extremely enjoyable.

Both Biden and Klobuchar may have unwittingly boosted Sanders in their zeal to undermine Kamala Harris and Warren, respectively. In separate venues, both described Sanders as "honest" in order to knock down other rivals during exchanges over the nuts and bolts of "Medicare for All."

Harris has since dropped out of the race and Warren is slumping after a sustained hammering over the details of her plans. Sanders, meanwhile, has largely been spared that level of scrutiny -- at least from the other campaigns -- and forged ahead with his efforts to build the diverse, working class coalition of support, bolstered by a massive, volunteer-driven organizing apparatus, his team believes will ultimately carry him to the nomination.

If Sanders succeeds, a Democratic establishment that either opposes his policies on a substantive level or views his leftist politics as a general election loser -- or some combination of the two -- will be left asking itself why it spent long stretches of the campaign treating the Vermont senator as an afterthought.

Right, Bernie only surged because his opponents have been too easy on him, too focused on Harris and Warren, etc...

I like how Bernie's recent appearances on CNN, mentioning Biden saying on the Senate floor that he would slash Medicare, Medicade, and Social Security... that, and attacking directly the notion of electability really startled pundits, and its shocking voters too. I watched a clip of a Biden voter who refused to believe Biden said such a thing, and when confirmed she said that she would either change his mind or he would change hers. If Bernie pummels Biden for these past statements in the final debate before Iowa, it will resonate among his elderly base. I've been waiting for this specific attack.

think there are a number of people who are concerned that Bernie Sanders has not been fully vetted in this current field the way that other candidates have," Zac Petkanas, a Democratic strategist and former rapid response director for Hillary Clinton in 2016. "And there are a lot of unknown about him. He may have a glass jaw and will crumble the moment that the right wing attack machine turns his focus on him."

Hilarious. Yeah, once the Right wing starts yelling "Socialism" and "Venezuela" just a little louder, that will be the knockout punch. They got nothin'!

The rest is pretty positive, generally. Follows a day after the biggest media Bernie doubter, CNN cornball Chris Cilizza, also posted a 'Bernie Could Win' piece.

I'm loving it.

[Teenwolf]

Steyer seems to have the charisma of a wet noodle, but why the hate on him rising other than that? Dude prioritizes green more than any remaining candidate. Having someone around that does that isn't a bad thing.

Because he's a fucking billionaire buying his legitimacy, and I don't trust the billionaire class to solve the problems they created, as they adhere to capitalist principles of growth first as a way of life. The message of Steyer being legitimized is "The Democrats welcome billionaires to the table", and I think that's a losing message in general. Also, the whole flooding the early state airwaves with ads thing from Buttigieg and Steyer is merely a distraction when neither have legitimate chances to win the nomination.

Also, Bernie is the only candidate that can beat Trump, so that's my bias, and why it's my focus to clear the way. We heard from the rest, now let's see the top 4. Man, I even hate listening to Klobuchar's jittery pessimism for another debate. She's at 3%, clear the way!

[Sour Masher]

Because he's a fucking billionaire buying his legitimacy, and I don't trust the billionaire class to solve the problems they created, as they adhere to capitalist principles of growth first as a way of life. The message of Steyer being legitimized is "The Democrats welcome billionaires to the table", and I think that's a losing message in general. Also, the whole flooding the early state airwaves with ads thing from Buttigieg and Steyer is merely a distraction when neither have legitimate chances to win the nomination.

Also, Bernie is the only candidate that can beat Trump, so that's my bias, and why it's my focus to clear the way. We heard from the rest, now let's see the top 4. Man, I even hate listening to Klobuchar's jittery pessimism for another debate. She's at 3%, clear the way!

Come on, be honest, you don't wanna see the top 4. You just want Bernie on the stage and the rest off it . Seriously, I don't know we know for sure who the final 4 will be, so I see no harm in having a few others on the stage to say their piece.

[revo]

A week after laying off her entire staff, Marianne Williamson stops her campaign.

[Teenwolf]

This Des Moines Register/CNN poll of Iowa is making media pundits shit their pants, coming a couple of days after the first IPSOS/Reuters poll showing Sanders in first nationally. Apparently this specific poll is the most reliable bellwether for Iowa.

Sanders 20% (+5)
Warren 17% (+1)
Buttigieg 16% (-9)
Biden 15% (no change)

First, CNN produced the most hilarious graphic, posting the poll with a huge banner above it reading "NO CLEAR LEADER" (they get away with it as the margin of error is 3.7%). They've done the same previously when Sanders leads, showing a giant disclaimer. Funny stuff.

This guy on MSNBC is a highlight of the pundits freaking out. Highly enjoyable. The first minute is the relevant bit.

[Sour Masher]

TW, I know this is an old argument you have dismissed before, but here is Obama's old campaign manager saying that Bernie may be the worst candidate against Trump, because of the strength of the economy and the fear-mongering of how a socialist will ruin it all: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...messina-097578

You really see absolutely zero reasons to be concerned at all about that strategy against Bernie in key states? I do. I very much want to know Bernie's plan to combat that message, because if he is the nominee, it is coming and coming hard. In the past, you have focused on how Bernie would emphasize what he could give voters that they don't have. I don't think that will be enough. I think he needs a strong message about how he won't tank the economy, that unemployment won't skyrocket under his presidency. How businesses won't flee the country under his admin, etc. You know that stuff is coming, and fear of loss is generally a bigger motivator for voters than promises of gain. What will his strategy be to combat these attacks? How will he assure voters that the promises of positive change he is making won't lead to negative unintended consequences that will be hammered at voters constantly (Trump is building a massive war chest right now).

[Teenwolf]

TW, I know this is an old argument you have dismissed before, but here is Obama's old campaign manager saying that Bernie may be the worst candidate against Trump, because of the strength of the economy and the fear-mongering of how a socialist will ruin it all: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...messina-097578

You really see absolutely zero reasons to be concerned at all about that strategy against Bernie in key states? I do. I very much want to know Bernie's plan to combat that message, because if he is the nominee, it is coming and coming hard. In the past, you have focused on how Bernie would emphasize what he could give voters that they don't have. I don't think that will be enough. I think he needs a strong message about how he won't tank the economy, that unemployment won't skyrocket under his presidency. How businesses won't flee the country under his admin, etc. You know that stuff is coming, and fear of loss is generally a bigger motivator for voters than promises of gain. What will his strategy be to combat these attacks? How will he assure voters that the promises of positive change he is making won't lead to negative unintended consequences that will be hammered at voters constantly (Trump is building a massive war chest right now).

The "strength of the economy" is a myth. Half of the country lives on less than $30K/year, more than half the country would be unable to afford an unexpected $500 bill. The reason Trump won throughout the midwest was economic populism. I have zero worries that Sanders' economic populist messaging would beat the hell out of Trump's socialism fear-mongering. I have fears that Sanders' liberal social ideologies would hurt him, as the country is much more culturally liberal than they are economically. But that's another story.

You act as if the voters are set. It's all the same people showing up as 2016, you need to convince people to flip one way or the other. It's about expanding the electorate. Turnout in '16 was down 3%! That's where the votes are at that will beat Trump, those who stayed home in 2016 because Clinton didn't offer anything, and those who have abandoned politics in general. There's so many more votes among the 40+% of than anywhere else.

I would ask you conversely, if Joe Biden is saying "nothing fundamentally will change", and Joe Biden is UNWILLING to attack the underlying metrics of the Trump economy, how the hell do you expect that to defeat Trump? You think Biden's message that "the economy is great, nothing will change" will inspire non-voters to vote, or Trump voters to flip? No way.

Here's the best clip I've seen recently arguing for Sanders' electability. It explains everything in far greater detail than I can here.

[The Feral Slasher]

TW, I know this is an old argument you have dismissed before, but here is Obama's old campaign manager saying that Bernie may be the worst candidate against Trump, because of the strength of the economy and the fear-mongering of how a socialist will ruin it all: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...messina-097578

.

If you look at who Jim Messina is it really shouldn't surprise you that he is saying this. His business is making money off the corrupt system we have, why would he want to change it ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/may-said-to-hire-jim-messina-for-u-k-conservative-election-team-j1vx4am1

https://theintercept.com/2014/12/23/how-jim-messina-moved-from-idaho-to-2-million-dollar-washington-estate/

[Sour Masher]

If you look at who Jim Messina is it really shouldn't surprise you that he is saying this. His business is making money off the corrupt system we have, why would he want to change it ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/may-said-to-hire-jim-messina-for-u-k-conservative-election-team-j1vx4am1

https://theintercept.com/2014/12/23/...ington-estate/

Sure, but that wasn't my point. He just happened to be the most recent messenger. I cited Karl Rove on the same point before trying to get reassurances, and I don't respect Karl Rove at all. I do worry they may be have some truth in this particular argument, even if they are making it for less than altruistic reasons. I have heard Sanders be effective at messaging what he wants to do for and give the American people. I have not heard him really address as extensively how he won't take and destroy what his opponents say he will. I was hoping TW or someone else would be able to speak to that or point me to his arguments against those claims. I fear if he does not have an effective argument to combat those claims, the fear-mongering puts him in a tough spot to win. After all, what good is free college and $15 minimum wage if the economy is destroyed and all the jobs move overseas?

To be clear, I'm not making that argument, but I am arguing he needs to be able to address that argument. Has he? What does he say? What can he say that will convince voters who fear his policies would destroy the economy and double their taxes? I will feel better if someone can point me to those arguments, if he has made them.

[The Feral Slasher]

If you look at who Jim Messina is it really shouldn't surprise you that he is saying this. His business is making money off the corrupt system we have, why would he want to change it ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/may-said-to-hire-jim-messina-for-u-k-conservative-election-team-j1vx4am1

https://theintercept.com/2014/12/23/...ington-estate/

He sure know's how to beat Trump, lol

https://theoutline.com/post/1810/jim-messina-a-case-study-in-political-failure?zd=1&zi=i5bk5fff

Messina’s next project was to co-chair Priorities USA Action, the main Hillary Clinton SuperPAC. Five days before last year’s presidential election, Messina published an op-ed in the New York Times confidently downplaying fears of a “Brexit-style shock,” which turned out to be exactly what happened. Clinton’s campaign was “leveraging the power of data to find every last vote they can,” he wrote, unaware that the Clinton campaign’s faith in the power of data would turn out to be one of their greatest weaknesses. Trump, who ran the most amateurish major party campaign in living memory, beat Clinton’s team of world-renowned experts.

[The Feral Slasher]

Sure, but that wasn't my point. He just happened to be the most recent messenger. I cited Karl Rove on the same point before trying to get reassurances, and I don't respect Karl Rove at all. I do worry they may be have some truth in this particular argument, even if they are making it for less than altruistic reasons. I have heard Sanders be effective at messaging what he wants to do for and give the American people. I have not heard him really address as extensively how he won't take and destroy what his opponents say he will. I was hoping TW or someone else would be able to speak to that or point me to his arguments against those claims. I fear if he does not have an effective argument to combat those claims, the fear-mongering puts him in a tough spot to win. After all, what good is free college and $15 minimum wage if the economy is destroyed and all the jobs move overseas?

To be clear, I'm not making that argument, but I am arguing he needs to be able to address that argument. Has he? What does he say? What can he say that will convince voters who fear his policies would destroy the economy and double their taxes? I will feel better if someone can point me to those arguments, if he has made them.

Of course he has to address that argument. But if the goal is to defeat Trump why do we have prominent Dems calling him a Socialist and "too far left". Kind of self defeating.

[The Feral Slasher]

Of course he has to address that argument. But if the goal is to defeat Trump why do we have prominent Dems calling him a Socialist and "too far left". Kind of self defeating.

And to answer your question, he just needs to relentlessly focus on how the middle and lower class will benefit from the policies he is promoting. Which is what he does. Like TW said, many Americans aren't doing real well in the current economy, I don't think they are that averse to change. It's more the upper class liberals who run the party that have the real concern.

[GwynnInTheHall]

All I can say is that in my experience with the Sanders campaign and those who support him, is that they are voracious in their belief and support. They'll run through a wall for Bernie. They're also much more the regular joe than those touting moderate democrats. They, as Slash mentioned, not doing well in this or any other economies that have come before. Most struggle to make monthly bills, don't have health care, no savings. 40% of Americans can't afford an unexpected $400 expense FOURTY PERCENT.

THESE are the people Bernie resonates with.

When I was a Sanders delegate, the Clinton supporters were mostly upper middle class, the were far more sedate at the Caucus and much better dressed/kempt than us ragtag Bernistas.

Sanders can beat Trump because if it's him and Trump, the moderates will vote him over Trump despite his policies--right now this unelectable rhetoric is bullshit maneuvering on the part of the status quo Dems. They'll move over to whomever is nominated.

For better or worse, Sanders supporters won't if they feel they got railroaded again.

Sanders is going to win the Nomination.

He's going to be the Next President.

Unless Trump refuses to cede the office after the election, which wouldn't surprise me in the least. But hey, dragging his dumb ass out of the White House kicking and screaming will make for some great ratings! They'll be HUGE!

[fuhrdog]

All I can say is that in my experience with the Sanders campaign and those who support him, is that they are voracious in their belief and support. They'll run through a wall for Bernie. They're also much more the regular joe than those touting moderate democrats. They, as Slash mentioned, not doing well in this or any other economies that have come before. Most struggle to make monthly bills, don't have health care, no savings. 40% of Americans can't afford an unexpected $400 expense FOURTY PERCENT.

THESE are the people Bernie resonates with.

When I was a Sanders delegate, the Clinton supporters were mostly upper middle class, the were far more sedate at the Caucus and much better dressed/kempt than us ragtag Bernistas.

Sanders can beat Trump because if it's him and Trump, the moderates will vote him over Trump despite his policies--right now this unelectable rhetoric is bullshit maneuvering on the part of the status quo Dems. They'll move over to whomever is nominated.

For better or worse, Sanders supporters won't if they feel they got railroaded again.

Sanders is going to win the Nomination.

He's going to be the Next President.

Unless Trump refuses to cede the office after the election, which wouldn't surprise me in the least. But hey, dragging his dumb ass out of the White House kicking and screaming will make for some great ratings! They'll be HUGE!

If all this comes to happen and Sanders becomes President, which of Sanders main talking points will come to fruition in your opinion?

[The Feral Slasher]

If all this comes to happen and Sanders becomes President, which of Sanders main talking points will come to fruition in your opinion?

I have the same questions. He's for sure going to have trouble implementing his plan. How much can he really hope to get done ? But I'd rather have him there trying vs the alternative.