Election 2020

[The Feral Slasher]

No that was Barbara.

(ok I'm officially going to Hell)

Lol....

[fuhrdog]

No that was Barbara.

(ok I'm officially going to Hell)

(good thing I don't believe in hell...I'd be joining you)

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'd love to see your estimates of the chances each of the three of them has to beat Trump.

I wasn't disputing the numbers, just commenting on the fact your impression (and possibly others) is what it is. I have to think the real odds are much closer for everyone vs Trump but am in agreement that there's a 50-50 chance he gets re-elected and in that the statement even the chance he could serve a second term is a sad reflection on the state of our Nation.

Let's start with the perception that Sanders has a 30% chance Vs Trump because of 'socialism' That tells me there is 70% of the country that is either stupid or willfully ignorant because--there's been MORE than enough published on the differences between Democratic Socialism and the old--close to communism variety that people who don't want to see Sanders as the Nominee or President keep making false equivalencies about. It also show's me people have no idea how many democratic socialist programs already exist in this country (or just choose to ignore them) His Universal healthcare already exists in many forms so why is that a stretch? His Free college for all exists in some forms already in many states. His Student Debut forgiveness also exists in different forms in many places. PLUS it's not like the entire congress is going to bend over and allow him to do whatever he wants. So again, your assertion tells me that at least YOU think (because of your posted odds) 70% of this country is too dumb, uneducated or willfully ignorant to see past a word and would vote Trump over Sanders.

Warren 50%, who you like, but can't beat Trump because she's a woman...So HALF of the country would rather have that POS in office than a well qualified nominee because she's a WOMAN? How fucking disappointing.

Biden has the best shot at 60%, but that only tells me people would rather go with someone who isn't going to change their comfort level as the ONLY viable option over Trump He'll accomplish nothing that can't be undone with a flurry of Executive orders by the next POTUS as we've seen happen as Trump's dismantled almost everything Obama accomplished in 8 years. IMO He is the Lazy person's choice. He's a selfish person's choice.

Change is needed, but it's hard-and complicated-putting the greater good over one's personal comfort level and financial gain is Tough, but the right thing to do in a society. Right now all I hear is-in so many words-I am gonna look out for me and mine. Not essentially from you Mike, but a lot of people everywhere. They don't care if that means 4 more years of Trump.

Like I said--It's all a really sad commentary on the state of our Nation.

[gcstomp]

Voter turnout will be huge. The roughly half of registered voters that typically say it doesnt matter who is elected, I will just skip voting, will change. More people get this is a big deal to just get out your vote.

The 3 70somethings heading D ticket for the 70 something in office now, we need to examine how this is a good thing to insert someone into highest office who is running at a fraction of what they were in their primes. The contrast of Mayor Pete, a brilliant guy at his full mental acuity, who is simply running at a different gear than the other older peeps is stark. Because of interwebs access we can magically whip out a dozen cases of less than perfect interactions with anyone, be it Mayor Pete, or the Pope, or anyone you want. That is not to me the most interesting thing to do, though it helps to perpetuate the circular firing squad on why that person isnt as good as yours.

But ok, lets admit it will be one old R vs 1 of these 3 old Ds. This cycle there will be:
1-higher voter turnout, this helps D
2-incumbent impeached, has any impeached person ever won a countries top office? helps D
3- no fbi comey type announcement days before that per 538 cost 2-3% in prior cycle. just fbi keeping out of politics by making no announcements help D
4- 14,000+ lies, with countless schoolyard insults attached to personal smears vs every person trump perceives as critical of him, in this less than full first term. people thought all candidates were same, this time we know there is a difference. seems to me a D advantage
5- kids in cages. some 70,000 children were held in custody for crime of crossing border in 2019, even now 4000 children held at detention camps. https://apnews.com/015702afdb4d4fbf85cf5070cd2c6824 Can we examine the long term damage that has been done to the kids who will be hardwired to have a type of anger for their treatment? In any case, I think just saying the words, kids in cages, not a good look for current admin, so a plus for D election.
we can go on, but what i am saying is this isnt a high bar to have to clear to get someone preferable in presidency. Trump is not a good person. Prior there were questions as to if he could rise to meet challenge of office, we now know he is as he presents himself to be via the inane tweets.

Assuming we have at least a few presidential debates, i fear trump may simply forgo them altogether. But assuming we have a few, and I know trump will perform so poorly this go around, there is a very high chance that anyone beats trump.

[B-Fly]

Odds depend wildly on the Democratic candidate. Could you break down the chances for each of the top 3?

I'm honestly not sure the odds depend wildly on the Democratic candidate. I think the chances of Trump winning are about 55-60% almost regardless, as the election will predominantly be a referendum on Trump, or reflexively, a referendum more broadly on "the resistance" to Trump and Trumpism. Yes, maybe Bernie drives more youth/progressive turnout, but he also potentially loses otherwise persuadable Romney/Kasich-type Republicans and neoliberal capitalists vis a vis Biden, with Warren keeping and losing about half on each side. Plus Sanders and Warren face anti-Semitism and sexism voter risk respectively. And if you went below the top three to a Buttigieg or Booker or Bloomberg or Yang or Klobuchar - whomever - they all gain some/lose some for various reasons, and it ultimately comes down to a referendum on Trump/Trumpism versus anti-Trump/anti-Trumpism.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Voter turnout will be huge. The roughly half of registered voters that typically say it doesnt matter who is elected, I will just skip voting, will change. More people get this is a big deal to just get out your vote.

The 3 70somethings heading D ticket for the 70 something in office now, we need to examine how this is a good thing to insert someone into highest office who is running at a fraction of what they were in their primes. The contrast of Mayor Pete, a brilliant guy at his full mental acuity, who is simply running at a different gear than the other older peeps is stark. Because of interwebs access we can magically whip out a dozen cases of less than perfect interactions with anyone, be it Mayor Pete, or the Pope, or anyone you want. That is not to me the most interesting thing to do, though it helps to perpetuate the circular firing squad on why that person isnt as good as yours.

But ok, lets admit it will be one old R vs 1 of these 3 old Ds. This cycle there will be:
1-higher voter turnout, this helps D
2-incumbent impeached, has any impeached person ever won a countries top office? helps D
3- no fbi comey type announcement days before that per 538 cost 2-3% in prior cycle. just fbi keeping out of politics by making no announcements help D
4- 14,000+ lies, with countless schoolyard insults attached to personal smears vs every person trump perceives as critical of him, in this less than full first term. people thought all candidates were same, this time we know there is a difference. seems to me a D advantage
5- kids in cages. some 70,000 children were held in custody for crime of crossing border in 2019, even now 4000 children held at detention camps. https://apnews.com/015702afdb4d4fbf85cf5070cd2c6824 Can we examine the long term damage that has been done to the kids who will be hardwired to have a type of anger for their treatment? In any case, I think just saying the words, kids in cages, not a good look for current admin, so a plus for D election.
we can go on, but what i am saying is this isnt a high bar to have to clear to get someone preferable in presidency. Trump is not a good person. Prior there were questions as to if he could rise to meet challenge of office, we now know he is as he presents himself to be via the inane tweets.

Assuming we have at least a few presidential debates, i fear trump may simply forgo them altogether. But assuming we have a few, and I know trump will perform so poorly this go around, there is a very high chance that anyone beats trump.

Trump won't debate if he thinks it could hurt him. Just because it's always been done before doesn't mean anything to him and won't necessarily hurt him for saying no. See non-release of tax returns.

And why are you confident there will be no announcement like the Comey announcement? I'm pretty sure Barr would love to throw out whatever he could to help his patron get elected again and would have zero scruples against doing so.

[Mithrandir]

Whether or not Trump wins depends on many factors, but the most important one is this:

Has racism/bigotry increased or decreased in the last 4 years?

[Ken]

Has racism/bigotry increased or decreased in the last 4 years?

Yes, it has

[revo]

Mark Meadows becomes the 25th GOP Congressman to announce they are not running for re-election in '20, compared to just 9 Dems.

[nots]

Trump won't debate if he thinks it could hurt him. Just because it's always been done before doesn't mean anything to him and won't necessarily hurt him for saying no. See non-release of tax returns.

And why are you confident there will be no announcement like the Comey announcement? I'm pretty sure Barr would love to throw out whatever he could to help his patron get elected again and would have zero scruples against doing so.

How about an avatar bet on whether or not Trump debates?

[Kevin Seitzer]

How about an avatar bet on whether or not Trump debates?

Which side are you on?

[nots]

Which side are you on?

He will debate. He is trolling you folks with his ‘the moderators are corrupt’ non-sense. If he does, you can use the Libertarian candidate’s picture as your avatar for a month. If he doesn’t, I will put up any avatar you like. And unlike that d-bag El Diabalo, I won’t run away and hide if I lose.

[TS Garp]

Sadly, at this point I'd give Trump strong odds of winning re-election in 2020 - maybe 60%.

I've felt that for a while but I think the picture can still change. Not because some smoking gun will emerge (clearly, nothing, no matter how damning and iron-clad will change the mind of many of his supporters) but because of the economy. If it tanks, it will negatively affect his chances, perhaps significantly. If it stays strong, however, he will be very difficult to beat. I will also say that I think Stacey Abrams has the ability to be a real change-maker, both in terms of her Fair Fight initiative (which I do think will make a difference in key states) and if she joins forces with someone like Biden.

[Ken]

How about an avatar bet on whether or not Trump debates?

Is this one of those things where you have to rewatch Avatar and report back if you lose?

[Kevin Seitzer]

He will debate. He is trolling you folks with his ‘the moderators are corrupt’ non-sense. If he does, you can use the Libertarian candidate’s picture as your avatar for a month. If he doesn’t, I will put up any avatar you like. And unlike that d-bag El Diabalo, I won’t run away and hide if I lose.

I don't have a strong feeling whether he will debate or not. What I do believe is that if he thinks it will hurt him, he won't do it.