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Sadly, at this point I'd give Trump strong odds of winning re-election in 2020 - maybe 60%.
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Odds depend wildly on the Democratic candidate. Could you break down the chances for each of the top 3?
Biden would get obliterated. Would not turn out young voters. Would be an utter embarrassment. 10% chance he could beat Trump.
Sanders would likely easily beat Trump. He would have a mass of young voter support, he has the most latino support, he would get the most independents and flip the most Republicans, who consistently like Sanders most after Tulsi. He would win, no doubt. 90% chance he beats Trump.
Warren would lose. I've heard that she's doing too much identity signifier bullshit, turning off middle America, saying she would wear a certain colour of scarf on her inauguration to represent planned parenthood, using PC pronouns and signifiers, it's extremely unappealing to many. She also has a much whiter and wealthier base than either Biden or Sanders, so I don't think she would get the broad base of support to beat Trump. 40% chance to beat Trump.
I think Warren is lining up as a good thing for Bernie, so long as she doesn't fall below 15% in the first 4 primaries, but wins less delegates than Sanders. She can pick her position if he needs her delegates for a unity ticket, likely not VP, but head of the treasury or whatever. Many polls in the last few weeks have started to show the race narrow to Bernie vs Biden. It's a great sign that Sanders is the highest 2nd choice for both Warren and Biden voters. I like his chances more all the time.Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."Comment
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My completely unscientific guess:
Biden 60% chance to beat Trump - basically he's viewed as a good guy with legislative and foreign policy experience - negative is that he's a grandpa who sometimes says stupid stuff
Warren 50% chance to beat Trump - most competent of the three candidates, but some people won't vote for a woman because they view her as a schoolmarm/nanny or are outright sexist, probably too liberal for a portion of the voters in the middle
Sanders 30% chance to beat Trump - viewed as a Socialist and a large slice of the country won't accept that, being a Jew on top of that probably doesn't help him"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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I dont think i am actually a boomer. My sister might be. I need to check so i can use that line at christmas dinner---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011
Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King, Jr.Comment
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Ha, I didn't think you were, but it is what the kids say these days, which indicate that maybe they don't take grandpa seriously anymore and won't vote for him. Meanwhile, I'm collecting incriminating evidence to use against my young sons in case they ever get too big for their britches and say to me "ok, gen exer."Comment
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Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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