Election 2020

[Mithrandir]

Elizabeth Warren consistently fails when faced with tough questions. Her answer this weekend regarding the voting order of the primary states was particularly revealing. She acted annoyed at having to answer a tough question, and her ultimate response "I'm just a player in the game" sure doesn't sound like someone out to enact big structural change.

This commentary analyzes Warren's problems with answering tough questions, and "needing to get an A".

"Krystal Ball" Nice. At least her parents had a sense of humor!

[Teenwolf]

"Krystal Ball" Nice. At least her parents had a sense of humor!

I find her commentary quite prophetic.

[Teenwolf]

My take on Bloomberg. The only reason for him to run in the primary at this late stage is as a spoiler. His announcement that he plans to skip the first 4 states is interesting strategically. If he's going after Biden voters, the best shot is to hope Biden craters in the first 4 (which polling shows him cratering in New Hampshire and Iowa, the supposed "President pickers"). That would build media hype around Bloomberg, and if he could use it to build his media profile, in service of a future 3rd party run, it kinda doesn't matter where he finishes in the primaries so long as it gets him enough coverage to springboard him to a 3rd party run in the general. He also has the built in excuse that he got into the race too late to win the Dem nomination.

Interestingly, some polling shows Bloomberg cutting into Warren and Buttigieg more so than Biden, the wealthiest voting demographics... makes sense when you listen to B-Fly's praise of both Warren and Bloomberg.

[Teenwolf]

Update on the debates, Castro will drop out in the next few days, only 6 days left to qualify and he only has 1/5. So November 20 will have 10 (Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer, Gabbard, Booker). December gets tougher. Top 6 are already in, but Booker, Yang, Steyer, and Gabbard all need good November debates. Booker hasn't had a 4% poll since August, so he's likely toast. Tulsi has the early lead among the 4, and most likely to throw the biggest punches in the next debate. If we cut to 7 for December, that would be great, but I bet Yang sneaks in as the 8th. I wonder when Harris drops out also, as it's clear she's flatlined. Klobuchar needs to go too, her recent media blitz gave her a whole 0.5 pt bump nationally. I'd be happy with the top 4 plus Tulsi by the January debate.

[Sour Masher]

Interestingly, some polling shows Bloomberg cutting into Warren and Buttigieg more so than Biden, the wealthiest voting demographics... makes sense when you listen to B-Fly's praise of both Warren and Bloomberg.

I can see Bloomberg tanking Warren among wealthy voters for sure. There has been a ton of push back on her Med4All payment plan. Especially her corporate tax structure. I'm sure Bloomberg is being begged by his friends to run, in part, because of Warren's tax plan. The part to pay for Med4All is brutal for the ultra wealthy who rely on capital gains. It would essentially cut their wealth in half. The 2%, 3% taxes she suggests to pay for everything else barely affects them at all. They will lobby to keep those for appearances, but kill the capital gains taxes as stifling to growth.

[Sour Masher]

Peter King retiring=yay!

Chuck Schumer praising him bigly on the way out=wtf?

[revo]

My take on Bloomberg. The only reason for him to run in the primary at this late stage is as a spoiler. His announcement that he plans to skip the first 4 states is interesting strategically. If he's going after Biden voters, the best shot is to hope Biden craters in the first 4 (which polling shows him cratering in New Hampshire and Iowa, the supposed "President pickers"). That would build media hype around Bloomberg, and if he could use it to build his media profile, in service of a future 3rd party run, it kinda doesn't matter where he finishes in the primaries so long as it gets him enough coverage to springboard him to a 3rd party run in the general. He also has the built in excuse that he got into the race too late to win the Dem nomination.

Interestingly, some polling shows Bloomberg cutting into Warren and Buttigieg more so than Biden, the wealthiest voting demographics... makes sense when you listen to B-Fly's praise of both Warren and Bloomberg.

Quinnipiac poll from yesterday has Biden up 4 in NH, with Sanders "cratering" into 4th from 1st, a drop of 8 points from the last poll for Bernie.

[Sour Masher]

Quinnipiac poll from yesterday has Biden up 4 in NH, with Sanders "cratering" into 4th from 1st, a drop of 8 points from the last poll for Bernie.

I didn't watch much of it, but it seemed Biden was doing well last night.

[Teenwolf]

Quinnipiac poll from yesterday has Biden up 4 in NH, with Sanders "cratering" into 4th from 1st, a drop of 8 points from the last poll for Bernie.

Bernie outperformed his RCP polling averages in Iowa and NH by 5.7% and 5.9% respectively in 2016. Facing a 6 pt defecit, and seeing within the poll Sanders' large leads in enthusiasm and decided voters, I'm not too concerned. Especially if Buttigieg keeps cutting into Warren. As I keep saying, Sanders' strategy is to turn out non-voters, and unlikely voters. Definitionally, a 19-22 year old is an unlikely voter as they've never voted before. Young voters turning out or not will be the key for him, and in many ways, young voters are not being properly counted in the polling. They don't own landlines and generally don't answer the phone for unknown numbers.

Here's a good video about the NH poll.

[B-Fly]

My take on Bloomberg. The only reason for him to run in the primary at this late stage is as a spoiler. His announcement that he plans to skip the first 4 states is interesting strategically. If he's going after Biden voters, the best shot is to hope Biden craters in the first 4 (which polling shows him cratering in New Hampshire and Iowa, the supposed "President pickers"). That would build media hype around Bloomberg, and if he could use it to build his media profile, in service of a future 3rd party run, it kinda doesn't matter where he finishes in the primaries so long as it gets him enough coverage to springboard him to a 3rd party run in the general. He also has the built in excuse that he got into the race too late to win the Dem nomination.

Interestingly, some polling shows Bloomberg cutting into Warren and Buttigieg more so than Biden, the wealthiest voting demographics... makes sense when you listen to B-Fly's praise of both Warren and Bloomberg.

I have seen no indication whatsoever that Bloomberg is planning to or would run as a 3rd party candidate in 2020. He's specifically stated that he recognized that running as a credible 3rd party candidate against Trump and the Democratic nominee would likely split the anti-Trump vote and lead to his re-election. He won't do that.

[Teenwolf]

I have seen no indication whatsoever that Bloomberg is planning to or would run as a 3rd party candidate in 2020. He's specifically stated that he recognized that running as a credible 3rd party candidate against Trump and the Democratic nominee would likely split the anti-Trump vote and lead to his re-election. He won't do that.

So why do you think he's planning to run? He clearly can't win if he skips the first 4 states. Was he sending up a trial balloon to see how it would affect polling? I don't see how splitting the "centrists" further helps him to get a desired centrist as the nominee. It just doesn't make any sense to me. The only thing Bloomberg running does is strengthen Sanders. With the likeliest 1st ballot ticket at this point being Sanders/Warren in some order, it seems likely that Bloomberg's entrance would allow Sanders to move ahead of Warren for the head of the ticket, which would be a nightmare scenario for him.

This all assumes a Biden crash-and-burn scenario, but Biden's weakness is supposedly why Bloomberg is considering running. So I just can't make logical sense of it favoring him to run. But of course, given the data we're seeing that he mostly cuts into Mayo-Pete and Warren, I hope he does line up to run on Super Tuesday, as I do believe his prediction of a severe underperformance from Biden is quite likely to come to fruition. I'm excited to see him run if the data holds true.

[B-Fly]

So why do you think he's planning to run? He clearly can't win if he skips the first 4 states. Was he sending up a trial balloon to see how it would affect polling? I don't see how splitting the "centrists" further helps him to get a desired centrist as the nominee. It just doesn't make any sense to me. The only thing Bloomberg running does is strengthen Sanders. With the likeliest 1st ballot ticket at this point being Sanders/Warren in some order, it seems likely that Bloomberg's entrance would allow Sanders to move ahead of Warren for the head of the ticket, which would be a nightmare scenario for him.

This all assumes a Biden crash-and-burn scenario, but Biden's weakness is supposedly why Bloomberg is considering running. So I just can't make logical sense of it favoring him to run. But of course, given the data we're seeing that he mostly cuts into Mayo-Pete and Warren, I hope he does line up to run on Super Tuesday, as I do believe his prediction of a severe underperformance from Biden is quite likely to come to fruition. I'm excited to see him run if the data holds true.

Yes, I think if the first four states appear to signal that Biden can't win and its likely to be Warren or Sanders, Bloomberg would seek to step in as the "non-socialist" alternative. Because no one can really press the flesh across Super Tuesday, the ability to make massive televised ad buys could be a huge advantage in those states, so Bloomberg's ability to focus his cash on developing those ads is probably the right strategic play. Ultimately, I still suspect we'll run more of a change agent (Warren or Sanders) against Trump, and while it may be unsettling enough to business interests and moderates that it leads to Trump's re-election, I will be all in to enthusiastically support the nominee.

[Ken]

Ultimately, I still suspect we'll run more of a change agent (Warren or Sanders) against Trump, and while it may be unsettling enough to business interests and moderates that it leads to Trump's re-election

That's the scary part. We should be primarily looking to put forth a candidate who can beat Trump. That has to be goal #1. Otherwise it's all for naught.

[Teenwolf]

Yes, I think if the first four states appear to signal that Biden can't win and its likely to be Warren or Sanders, Bloomberg would seek to step in as the "non-socialist" alternative. Because no one can really press the flesh across Super Tuesday, the ability to make massive televised ad buys could be a huge advantage in those states, so Bloomberg's ability to focus his cash on developing those ads is probably the right strategic play. Ultimately, I still suspect we'll run more of a change agent (Warren or Sanders) against Trump, and while it may be unsettling enough to business interests and moderates that it leads to Trump's re-election, I will be all in to enthusiastically support the nominee.

Ah, good analysis.

Ultimately, I guess Bloomberg is just surrounded by people convincing him he's got a shot, just like Charles Schultz and Steyer before him. If Biden craters in the first 4, and doesn't have the money to continue into Super Tuesday, Bloomberg could look to scoop up Biden's team as they abandon him. I guess I could convince myself of my viability in this field if I were Bloomberg. He's basically the grown up version of Mayor Pete, who ran an actual city for 12 years, not some small town. Still delusional, but you can see why his imagination is running away with him.

[revo]

Ah, good analysis.

Ultimately, I guess Bloomberg is just surrounded by people convincing him he's got a shot, just like Charles Schultz and Steyer before him. If Biden craters in the first 4, and doesn't have the money to continue into Super Tuesday, Bloomberg could look to scoop up Biden's team as they abandon him. I guess I could convince myself of my viability in this field if I were Bloomberg. He's basically the grown up version of Mayor Pete, who ran an actual city for 12 years, not some small town. Still delusional, but you can see why his imagination is running away with him.

I'd love to see Charles Schulz run (considering he died in 2000)!

For the first time this primary season, there's a new leader in a state poll other than the big 3-- Mayor Pete:

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus	Monmouth	Warren 18, Buttigieg 22, Biden 19, Sanders 13, Klobuchar 5, Harris 3, Yang 3, Steyer 3, Gabbard 2, Booker 2, Castro 1, Bullock 1, Bennet 0	[B]Buttigieg +3[/B]