Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

Wow, that is really depressing. I hope he pulls through this well and quickly. He is an important voice during this primary process and for national debate, and his impact on the Democratic Party over the last few years has been profound.

ETA: It appears Sanders is already on the road to recovery. I have to agree with KS that this hurts his campaign, assuming he wishes to continue it. At age 78, recovering from heart surgery, it raises flags for sure, just as Biden's slippage and corruption scrutiny has as well. I wonder if a younger candidate will rise up to challenge the three septuagenarians now. I imagine it will.

I know this is going to sound crazy, but... I think it ends up helping him. Hearing that it was just 1 blockage, 2 stents, that's a day surgery, very routine. He should be out of the hospital in 2-3 days, have 10 days to rally before the next debate, (I'm hopeful that he outraised Biden and Warren in Q3, but we'll see)... but the sources who will try to weaponize it would have been weaponizing something else, so that won't matter.

But here's what Bernie gets: Hillary Clinton on the View today, with Chelsea saying "the important thing is that if you feel chest pain, you have to go to the hospital and get checked out right away." Something like this. But the idea that financial considerations play into whether people go to the hospital is beyond comprehension for the Clinton class. Bernie will likely get to find the cost that an average person without health insurance would pay for the procedure, the ambulance, the hospital rest, etc.

If he's able to say "look, I have great insurance, I was fully covered for this simple procedure and that's the way it should be. But the reality is, for the 20 million Americans without health insurance and for the 80 million more who are underinsured, or cannot afford their deductibles or their co-pays, the decision to go to the hospital is not so easy. For some of those people, the decision not to see a doctor will result in their death. For many who do go in, and get a procedure like I did, a life-saving procedure, but a relatively common and simple one, will end up facing thousands of dollars in medical Bill's that they cannot afford. All for what? For the crime of having a random medical condition, could happen to anybody, and you now have to pay an incredible sum of money, or possibly go bankrupt. Does that sound fair to anybody? My procedure and hospital stay would have cost an uninsured person $4000, at a time when half of the country cannot afford an unexpected $500 bill. That is why I wrote the bill to introduce single-payer Medicare For All, and why I will fight to make sure that the American people get exactly that." (Numbers made up) I think a speech along those lines would be a good way for him to weaponize his health scare to highlight his biggest issue.

I don't see it hurting him, literally or in terms of the race. Especially with the recent media blackout of Bernie, it will only increase discussion about him.

[DMT]

Good take TW.

[Teenwolf]

Elizabeth Warren's Native ancestry is going to be an effective weapon for Trump if she's the nominee. Trump will ask to see her birth certificate, he will demand that she show the pictures she claimed to have plenty of, etc. He would magnify and toxify the issue, but there's enough meat on the bone to do damage and depress turnout, especially among minorities, which are already her biggest weak point. I wish the Democrats would force her to answer for it now instead of sitting with their thumbs up their ashes waiting for Trump to maul her. Oh well.

New video clips surfacing have been horrible. I think there's three. First is her with her husband in their home, asked if she could show any of the pictures of her Native ancestors, she responds "I have plenty of pictures, they're not for you." Second, a clip of an interviewer asking if her great grandfather was black, would she call herself black. Her response spreads a lie, about how her parents weren't allowed to marry because her mother had Native ancestry, so they had to elope, and if her black ancestor had endured that type of oppression, then yes. Third, she goes on a rant about high cheekbones that's pretty stupid.

(Edit to add, this is from memory, apologies for any slight inaccuracies, which relative was shamed into eloping, which generation the Native appears, which one had high cheekbones and was ashamed, which one had high cheekbones but was proud, it's all very confusing. Read link for details.)

Clips are included with this article.

elizabeth warren once claimed she had lots of pictures reflecting native heritage, then refused to show them

[Teenwolf]

In other news, details for the 4th debate have been announced. I really wanted more substantive conversation with 2 groups of 6. For some reason, CNN has backtracked on the initial rules, and they're now cramming 12 people onto 1 stage. Even less time per candidate than any previous debate.

Hopefully the November debate cuts to 7 or 8. Steyer, Gabbard, Booker, Beto, Klobuchar, Castro. None of them are in it for the long haul, that would leave us with 6. Kamala Harris probably not gonna last either, due to her precipitous drop. That would give us 5; the big 3, plus a well-funded but hopeless Mayor Pete, and that motherfucker Yang. I hope Tulsi lands some big shots and is able to hang on, but it will be tough with DNC picking polls they like, and her base has been distraught over her distancing from Med4All, so she's unlikely to make the cut.

[Sour Masher]

Elizabeth Warren's Native ancestry is going to be an effective weapon for Trump if she's the nominee. Trump will ask to see her birth certificate, he will demand that she show the pictures she claimed to have plenty of, etc. He would magnify and toxify the issue, but there's enough meat on the bone to do damage and depress turnout, especially among minorities, which are already her biggest weak point. I wish the Democrats would force her to answer for it now instead of sitting with their thumbs up their ashes waiting for Trump to maul her. Oh well.

New video clips surfacing have been horrible. I think there's three. First is her with her husband in their home, asked if she could show any of the pictures of her Native ancestors, she responds "I have plenty of pictures, they're not for you." Second, a clip of an interviewer asking if her great grandfather was black, would she call herself black. Her response spreads a lie, about how her parents weren't allowed to marry because her mother had Native ancestry, so they had to elope, and if her black ancestor had endured that type of oppression, then yes. Third, she goes on a rant about high cheekbones that's pretty stupid.

(Edit to add, this is from memory, apologies for any slight inaccuracies, which relative was shamed into eloping, which generation the Native appears, which one had high cheekbones and was ashamed, which one had high cheekbones but was proud, it's all very confusing. Read link for details.)

Clips are included with this article.

elizabeth warren once claimed she had lots of pictures reflecting native heritage, then refused to show them

I don't think it will be that big of a deal. With DNA tests getting big these days, all sorts of family myths about heritage are being exposed. My wife's mother, for instance, always said her grandfather, who she never met, was half Chinese. It turns out, that is not true. My wife's DNA test says she is 92% African, 8% white, so her grandfather had to be part white, not part Chinese. So what she was told and believed was wrong.

When I was very little, my grandfather said I was a direct descendant of David from the Bible. I went to school and told people that made up thing.

Obviously, Warren wasn't a dumb little kid when she made her claims, and certainly, I think it is fair to criticize her for cashing in on that family myth while also clearly having white privileges, but she isn't the first person to try to have it both ways with race. I do think she actually thought there was truth in her claims--again, such family stories are quite common and many people believe what their family tells them. I think she can explain that and people will understand.

[revo]

Elizabeth Warren's Native ancestry is going to be an effective weapon for Trump if she's the nominee. Trump will ask to see her birth certificate, he will demand that she show the pictures she claimed to have plenty of, etc. He would magnify and toxify the issue, but there's enough meat on the bone to do damage and depress turnout, especially among minorities, which are already her biggest weak point. I wish the Democrats would force her to answer for it now instead of sitting with their thumbs up their ashes waiting for Trump to maul her. Oh well.

New video clips surfacing have been horrible. I think there's three. First is her with her husband in their home, asked if she could show any of the pictures of her Native ancestors, she responds "I have plenty of pictures, they're not for you." Second, a clip of an interviewer asking if her great grandfather was black, would she call herself black. Her response spreads a lie, about how her parents weren't allowed to marry because her mother had Native ancestry, so they had to elope, and if her black ancestor had endured that type of oppression, then yes. Third, she goes on a rant about high cheekbones that's pretty stupid.

(Edit to add, this is from memory, apologies for any slight inaccuracies, which relative was shamed into eloping, which generation the Native appears, which one had high cheekbones and was ashamed, which one had high cheekbones but was proud, it's all very confusing. Read link for details.)

Clips are included with this article.

elizabeth warren once claimed she had lots of pictures reflecting native heritage, then refused to show them

And this can be perfectly countered by asking Dumb Donald to tell stories of his father's delightful upbringing in Germany.

[B-Fly]

Meanwhile, Warren leads the field in two national Democratic Presidential Nomination polls released today:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Sour Masher]

Meanwhile, Warren leads the field in two national Democratic Presidential Nomination polls released today:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Happy to see it, but this may be more of the other two front runners fading than her stepping up at the moment. Of the top three, I think Warren has the advantage, but it will be interesting to see if a younger candidate starts taking some votes. I think it will happen, but I am not sure who it will be.

[revo]

New poll from the critical state of Ohio shows the top 3 contenders all ahead:

Ohio: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 53, Trump 47	Biden +6
Ohio: Trump vs. Warren	Emerson	Warren 52, Trump 48	Warren +4
Ohio: Trump vs. Sanders	Emerson	Sanders 53, Trump 47	Sanders +6

[Teenwolf]

Pretty much everybody has released their Q3 fundraising totals at this point, except for Elizabeth Warren. While I expect her to be close to Sanders, or quite likely ahead of Sanders, the news is looking grim for Joe Biden. I'm so glad to see him being abandoned. I'm hoping it ends up a Warren/Sanders head to head with Biden trailing far behind or dropping out. Looks very positive for Andrew Yang as well, he soared past his 2nd quarter total of just over $2M, to around $10M. He's been on fire since his announcement of the freedom dividend giveaway. He will have funding to stay in all the way. I say all of this because NBC doesn't mention Yang, as they're starting to fear him, and giving him the media blackout treatment.

Joe Biden Fundraising Totals Plummet From Last Quarter

Former Vice President Joe Biden announced raising $15.2 million in the third quarter of the year, behind some rivals and short of what he raised in the previous quarter of the year.

Biden, a leading 2020 contender, has suffered shrinking poll numbers in recent weeks and the fundraising numbers announced Thursday may further fuel questions about whether he can maintain the sense of inevitably his campaign has sought to create around his candidacy.

The third quarter of the year, which spans from July to the end of September, is typically the slowest of the year, but Biden was outflanked by at least two opponents.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., tapped his small-dollar fundraising army for an impressive $25.3 million haul in the quarter, while Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, who has become a darling of the left-leaning donor class, posted a $19.1 million haul.

California Sen. Kamala Harris raised less than the former vice president at $11.6 million.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has been gaining on Biden in polls, has yet to announce her fundraising [...]

The drop-off of more than $6 million from Biden's initial total to now comes even as he made time for more big-dollar fundraisers in the last three months.

According to an NBC News tally, Biden attended 24 fundraisers in the second quarter and 43 in the third. Biden was attending a pair of fundraisers on Thursday in the Bay Area.

It was not immediately clear whether the higher number of big-dollar events was an effort to compensate for a possible downturn in small-dollar, online giving. In July, the campaign said it had received 436,000 donations from 256,000 individuals, with an average donation of $49.

From Q2 to Q3, main contenders, minus Warren:

Yang +257%
Bernie +39%
Harris (-2%)
Buttigieg (-23%)
Biden (-30%)

There's a graph with those figures included in this Andrew Yang article:

Yang's 257% Fundraising Surge Blows Away All Other Democrats

[Teenwolf]

Happy to see it, but this may be more of the other two front runners fading than her stepping up at the moment. Of the top three, I think Warren has the advantage, but it will be interesting to see if a younger candidate starts taking some votes. I think it will happen, but I am not sure who it will be.

You're pretty much right, in terms of where Warren's rise is coming from. I've heard she's benefiting largely from Harris' precipitous polling drop-off, and somewhat from Biden's dropoff. Bernie is also taking a few of those, but his rise has been much smaller, 2% over the last 2 months, from what I've heard.

But I gotta ask... who the heck do you think pulls ahead of the top 3? Aside from Yang, who I loathe, none of them are gaining any popularity or traction. Mayor Pete could gain from Biden's fall, as he's in Biden's lane... but polling largely shows Biden voters' 2nd choice is Bernie, as they both carry the working class fighter label. I don't think Pete's Christian schoolboy act is going to resonate with anybody outside of the donor class, really. The only young person with a shot to make some noise is Andrew Yang, but even he has a tough needle to thread. I hope he gets legitimately questioned or attacked soon. Tulsi! We need you!

[DMT]

Tulsi too busy defending Trump.

[Sour Masher]

You're pretty much right, in terms of where Warren's rise is coming from. I've heard she's benefiting largely from Harris' precipitous polling drop-off, and somewhat from Biden's dropoff. Bernie is also taking a few of those, but his rise has been much smaller, 2% over the last 2 months, from what I've heard.

But I gotta ask... who the heck do you think pulls ahead of the top 3? Aside from Yang, who I loathe, none of them are gaining any popularity or traction. Mayor Pete could gain from Biden's fall, as he's in Biden's lane... but polling largely shows Biden voters' 2nd choice is Bernie, as they both carry the working class fighter label. I don't think Pete's Christian schoolboy act is going to resonate with anybody outside of the donor class, really. The only young person with a shot to make some noise is Andrew Yang, but even he has a tough needle to thread. I hope he gets legitimately questioned or attacked soon. Tulsi! We need you!

It is hard for me to see anyone leap frogging the top 3 entirely, but I do think Biden continues to slip, and Sanders might as well, if this health scare ends up having some legs. Where are those votes going to go? Not all to Warren; she doesn't have that level of support yet. So, logically, they will go somewhere. Maybe they get split up among many, which will amount to nothing. But there is a clear opportunity for someone to take those votes and vault toward being a legit contender for the nomination. I like Mayor Pete best of the second tier bunch, but it does look like Yang's unapologetic gimmicks and showmanship may make him the guy who makes the big move. I can't see him being the last man standing, but then again, I didn't see Trump beating the GOP field either. Anything is possible.

I will say this about Yang. He saw what worked for Trump, and he is making it work for him. Of the two, I certainly think his scapegoat/fearmongering target is a lot less dark and immoral than Trump's. Whereas Trump ran hard on building a wall to keep out the scary, evil brown people, who were raping and killing and taking jobs, Yang's scapegoat to rally votes for himself is AI and automation. I'd rather a bunch of neo-luddites chanting "disaseemble" rather than a bunch of MAGA hatting wearing white guys chanting "deport, shoot, sink them in alligator and snake filled moats!"

[Teenwolf]

Tulsi too busy defending Trump.

On whether or not to remove Trump from Twitter?

I've had my own issues with Tulsi lately, but I agree with her on that issue. Even Elizabeth Warren, when asked if Trump should be banned from twitter, she immediately scoffed and said "no". If your issue is something different, feel free to share.

I just think there are very few left willing to throw some bombs. This unspoken rule of civility in the Democratic primary has been a disaster for exposing candidates real issues, and Tulsi and Castro are the last 2 willing to throw some real bombs, so far anyway. I wish Bernie could take just a little bit more of the Tulsi/Castro attack-dog approach and look for direct conflict, but he's being too nice, afraid of being labeled divisive. Given the way Castro and Tulsi have been treated, Bernie's instinct to play nice appears smart. But now that it's their last debate, the few at the bottom will be out for blood. Should keep it interesting.

[Teenwolf]

It is hard for me to see anyone leap frogging the top 3 entirely, but I do think Biden continues to slip, and Sanders might as well, if this health scare ends up having some legs. Where are those votes going to go? Not all to Warren; she doesn't have that level of support yet. So, logically, they will go somewhere. Maybe they get split up among many, which will amount to nothing. But there is a clear opportunity for someone to take those votes and vault toward being a legit contender for the nomination. I like Mayor Pete best of the second tier bunch, but it does look like Yang's unapologetic gimmicks and showmanship may make him the guy who makes the big move. I can't see him being the last man standing, but then again, I didn't see Trump beating the GOP field either. Anything is possible.

I think you have a misunderstanding about the voters. Bernie's voters are rock-solid. Polling shows them as the most dedicated, most decided, most hardcore supporters by any metric. They won't be abandoning him for Warren, or Buttigieg, or Mayor Pete, or Yang. You also seem to be buying this mainstream media narrative that Bernie's polling has tanked. I've seen all kinds of good polls for Bernie lately, I just don't bother sharing it because I prefer to watch the issues rather than the polls. Despite Bernie's awful throat/voice issue at the September debate, he didn't experience any major slip in polling. For the most part, everybody else has had wide swings up and down, Bernie has stayed level, or slightly gained. He needs to have a much better October debate, he needs to prove his health (which won't be hard to do given the last awful debate showing, health-wise), and he needs to continue to bide his time until the race whittles down to 6 or 8, before he can start really differentiating himself between Warren, and hopefully by then Biden's voters have shifted largely to Bernie as the polls suggest they might. So that's his path, it's not easy, Warren will have an easier time with more free positive media than Bernie. But he does still have a path, and the fundraising numbers should tell an interesting story once Warren announces her Q3.