Election 2020

[DMT]

Harris had a few good moments but her Wizard of Oz joke wasn't nearly as funny as she thought it was.

[B-Fly]

Harris had a few good moments but her Wizard of Oz joke wasn't nearly as funny as she thought it was.

I thought she was laughing mostly at Stephanopoulos's reaction to her "little man" joke.

[umjewman]

Warren-Booker 2020. She establishes the priorities and policies, he helps promote them to the American people and the stakeholders and the Congress.

Is that ticket too "northeast liberal" though? I mean, not the worst problem to have but just a thought.

[B-Fly]

Is that ticket too "northeast liberal" though? I mean, not the worst problem to have but just a thought.

Booker is right in the middle of the Democratic mainstream. Warren is further left, but not remotely a wacky revolutionary. I don't really think geography matters as much nowadays as it may have in the past. I think as a professorial policy wonk, Senator Warren could use a running mate who brings more of a feel-good gospel energy to the stump, which Booker does amazingly well. She's making the policy. He'd be helping to connect it to themes and values in a different way than she does, which will help them complement one another on the campaign trail and in governance as they work to build coalitions of support.

[Sour Masher]

Warren-Booker 2020. She establishes the priorities and policies, he helps promote them to the American people and the stakeholders and the Congress.

Can I say overall, though, that I walked away last night reinvigorated that the Democrats are engaging with clarity of values and purpose and thoughtfulness and seriousness about solutions, obstacles, details and reality. If they can lead with the same spirit, I will enthusiastically support the Democratic nominee, whoever it might be. There is no gap among these candidates remotely resembling the chasm between them and the narcissistic troll currently occupying the office.

I agree. It is a strong field and every one of them would be better than what we have now, by a googolplex of light years.

[Sour Masher]

Booker is right in the middle of the Democratic mainstream. Warren is further left, but not remotely a wacky revolutionary. I don't really think geography matters as much nowadays as it may have in the past. I think as a professorial policy wonk, Senator Warren could use a running mate who brings more of a feel-good gospel energy to the stump, which Booker does amazingly well. She's making the policy. He'd be helping to connect it to themes and values in a different way than she does, which will help them complement one another on the campaign trail and in governance as they work to build coalitions of support.

Whoever she picks, if she gets that far, has to help her reach working class voters and minority voters. She absolutely needs to do better with those demographics to ensure she can take down Trump.

[umjewman]

Booker is right in the middle of the Democratic mainstream. Warren is further left, but not remotely a wacky revolutionary. I don't really think geography matters as much nowadays as it may have in the past. I think as a professorial policy wonk, Senator Warren could use a running mate who brings more of a feel-good gospel energy to the stump, which Booker does amazingly well. She's making the policy. He'd be helping to connect it to themes and values in a different way than she does, which will help them complement one another on the campaign trail and in governance as they work to build coalitions of support.

It was a minor quibble at most. I'm trying to think in terms of MI, WI, OH, PA, and FL more than anything and what sways them. I'm pretty sure I know what color my state is going.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Nate Silver has some post-debate polling and commentary posted:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-september-poll/

Warren got the biggest boost, Biden and Sanders close to neutral.

[Sour Masher]

Nate Silver has some post-debate polling and commentary posted:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-september-poll/

Warren got the biggest boost, Biden and Sanders close to neutral.

It looks like Beto did well, despite what some seemed to fear as going too far on assault weapons. And Castro's poorly timed jab at Biden's memory (it was embarrassing and ironic that his memory was the one at fault about what occurred minutes before) cost him.

Mayor Pete always impresses me given his age and relative lack of experience on the national stage. I think he eventually passes Harris, probably as soon as the next debate, but it is still hard to see anyone catching the septuagenarians. He is less than half the age of Biden and Sanders. And he, along with the rest of the field, still trail Biden by a lot in perceptions of whether they can beat Trump.

[Teenwolf]

Yang's gimmick fell very flat. He basically stole an experiment Sweden(?) tried a few years ago. Big whoop.

I hate Yang as much as anybody, and I don't think his sweepstakes bullshit should be legal. Isn't it a work-around to buying votes? I also realize the politicians and commentators are all snickering about it and generally dismissive of him. But I think it's going to help him a lot. Yang will finish top 5, its looking like. People just like the simplicity of his $1K/mth pitch.

[Teenwolf]

I was bummed out by Bernie's hoarse voice. Really awful presentation, and it although it says nothing about long-term health, it does make his age stand out to the type of voters looking for a reason to discount him. I love that the moderators always frame health care to each candidate as "Bernie's Medicare-For-All would eliminate private insurers. Where do you stand on that?" When every plan is compared to Sanders, his becomes the gold standard. So that's one small positive I can take away. Bernie largely missed some big opportunities. I will say that Bernie pulled out his first wild card on Warren, but almost nobody caught it. He said something like "I'm the only one on this stage who didn't vote to approve Trump's giant unnecessary military budget expansion". So he's already gently showing his differences with Warren. Love that going forward.

Some takeaways:

I totally called it about Beto going far left to shock people. I totally, totally called it based on his Israel position, and sure enough he delivers. He sees Biden falling and wants a place in a Sanders or Warren admin, so that's a good sign.

Castro also believes that the centrists are doomed to fail, but he might have held onto a grenade a bit too long. The thing is, I watched very little mainstream coverage, but I'm hearing it's a lot of chatter about Castro being over the line and being wrong. I don't think it matters that much when he was already the next to drop out. He needed to drop a bomb, and he did. But coming in at 1.8% average or whatever, he needed to land a major blow. I love that he's now broached the topic of Biden's mental capacity, as it needs to be highlighted more, and MSM are now forced to talk about it. The most important point though, is that it shows he believes the same as Beto, and the same as Booker (attacked Biden in previous debate). All 3 want to get onto somebody's administration, and they believe it will be a progressive.

Castro's definitively great moment is when Pete Buttigieg was whimpering about how he doesn't like it when mom and dad fight about their plans and Castro was like "Dude, this is a fucking debate. If you don't want to debate plans, then maybe this isn't for you." Something like that... I loved it, anyway. Fuck, Pete... you don't like comparing plans? What are you on the stage for? Go away already.

Joe Biden... ugh... maybe you guys are right and Biden is bulletproof. I saw a lot of the signs I warned would happen. Using vague terms because he doesn't want to mess up names (Warren and Bernie, and called Bernie "President" once). Also, he's been referring to Obama a lot as "the last President" or similar terms, and it's getting super confusing. The answer on how to address systemic racism about bringing social workers into black homes because "they don't know what to do", and rambling about putting on radios and record players... He nearly spat his dentures onto the stage. He has this way of answering questions in which he starts a sentence, then blinks and shakes his head and starts a new sentence, and he will do this 3 or 4 times in an answer. Biden was the only one of the 10 candidates who didn't appear in the spin room with press after the debate. #SleepyJoe I joke, but I find all of this, and the general media dismissal of it, extremely troubling.

Hopefully Tulsi Gabbard can replace Klobuchar (or Castro, I dunno). I hope Kamala Harris drops out ASAP, she offers nothing. Her dumb jokes wallpapering over shitty policy is such a waste of everyone's time. Tulsi with the TKO on Kamala, so I doubt the DNC allows her back in.

[nullnor]

I agree. It is a strong field and every one of them would be better than what we have now, by a googolplex of light years.

a googolplex...according to quantum mechanics in any finite region there can only be a finite number of distinct quantum states. this is because at the subatomic level energy comes packaged in discrete units or quanta packets. an infinite continuum of energies is not allowed. this means that within a finite spacetime region there can only be a finite number of distinct histories- or a finite number of past events that can be distinguished from each other. furthermore the estimated number of possible histories that could have existed since the big bang is a region the size of our universe is around 10 to the 150th power. a googolplex, a ridiculously sized number, yet a finite one.

[Sour Masher]

It looks like the Sanders campaign is having organizational problems. This is surprising coming from the only candidate with a support system that should be ahead 9f tue game based on experience from 2016.

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2...ension-1500287

[Teenwolf]

It looks like the Sanders campaign is having organizational problems. This is surprising coming from the only candidate with a support system that should be ahead 9f tue game based on experience from 2016.

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2...ension-1500287

I dont take the constant flow of negative Sanders articles or uncritical Warren articles as anything more than biased narrative. It's still early, in that Biden still leads. Where his voters go after he falls is the biggest factor still undetermined. Also, as I mentioned, Sanders is only now starting to mention that he has significant differences with WARren's record. When it whittled down to Warren v Sanders, that's where he has the biggest chance to shine. He just needs to be patient.

"Last time, our field program was so far superior that I think it may color people’s views,” Weaver said. Now, “some of our competitors do have good field programs — Elizabeth Warren is one of them.” He added, “Some people are trying to position themselves in quote-un-quote Bernie’s lane. But as the campaign goes on, people who want a bold, progressive vision for the country will come back to Bernie Sanders.”

[In the Corn]

TW, you mention Biden referring to Obama as "the last/past president" often. While, yes, he may be losing his memory, and that is truly sad, not just for him, but anyoe who is losing their memory, or, and this might be a big or, Biden has an understanding that if he wants to pull moderates and Never Trump Republicans, he needs to distance himself from Obama, just a little bit. It may be great strategies.

Just offering another point of view on that.