Election 2020

[Kevin Seitzer]

A new poll by the Center for Mexican American Studies at the University of Houston (CMAS) and Univision found that 47% of registered voters in Texas favor a Democratic candidate versus 42% who say they will vote for President Donald Trump.
https://www.uh.edu/news-events/stori...atino-poll.php

"For Texas the statewide sample was weighted to match the racial/ethnic demographics of the state (Anglo 53%, Hispanic 33%, black 11%, other 3%)."

If that would represent the actual voting demographics, then Texas would for sure be a purple state. The problem is that it's never come close. In 2016, the breakdown was 62% Anglo, 20% Hispanic, 14% black, 4% Asian. That was after people had forecast a big surge in Latino turnout from the 2012 election, where the breakdown had been 60% Anglo, 22% Hispanic, 16% black, 3% Asian.

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/05/11/hispanic-turnout-2016-election/

[Teenwolf]

Update, both Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard have qualified for the 4th debate, Oct. 15th, I believe. So there will be 12 candidates split into 2 nights next debate, unless somebody drops out due to lack of funds or lack of interest (Klobuchar?) Or if somebody were to leave the race or stay out of the debate due to a health issue... If it stays 12, I wonder if they split it into top 6 bottom 6 or try to mix them randomly. Either way, I'm glad Tulsi the assassin is back in the game.

[Sour Masher]

The latest ranking poll has Warren in first place, suggesting she is a lot more people's 2nd or 3rd choice than Biden or Sanders, so as of now, she looks to benefit most from the eventual field shrinkage.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2019/9/12/20860985/poll-democratic-primary-ranked-choice-warren-biden

[revo]

The latest ranking poll has Warren in first place, suggesting she is a lot more people's 2nd or 3rd choice than Biden or Sanders, so as of now, she looks to benefit most from the eventual field shrinkage.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/201...e-warren-biden

Warren also leads in all Vegas betting polls by about 9 pts. Not sure how much that means, though -- Harris led by a 14 pt margin for a month after the first debate. Now she's 25 pts back.

[Sour Masher]

Warren also leads in all Vegas betting polls by about 9 pts. Not sure how much that means, though -- Harris led by a 14 pt margin for a month after the first debate. Now she's 25 pts back.

Yeah, it is still early and a lot can happen. Biden is still leading the polls and the 1st choice for more people than anyone else, so far. A lot can change, but it is looking harder to envision one of the not-currently-top-3 to pull ahead of the top trio. And Biden has the benefit of being the only moderate of the trio.

[Teenwolf]

Ah, back to the fucking media saying "Warren and Sanders both support Medicare for All". Such bullshit.

Edit: I'll wait to comment fully until later.

[revo]

Biden sure doesn’t sound like a guy who’s "senile".

[DMT]

Biden sure doesn’t sound like a guy who’s "senile".

But he said Congressman when he meant councilman!!

[DMT]

It's his home turf but Beto doing very well.

[Teenwolf]

Biden sure doesn’t sound like a guy who’s "senile".

Julian Castro disagrees.

[revo]

Julian Castro disagrees.

And how did that go for him? His campaign probably ended last night.

[B-Fly]

Warren-Booker 2020. She establishes the priorities and policies, he helps promote them to the American people and the stakeholders and the Congress.

Can I say overall, though, that I walked away last night reinvigorated that the Democrats are engaging with clarity of values and purpose and thoughtfulness and seriousness about solutions, obstacles, details and reality. If they can lead with the same spirit, I will enthusiastically support the Democratic nominee, whoever it might be. There is no gap among these candidates remotely resembling the chasm between them and the narcissistic troll currently occupying the office.

[gcstomp]

Biden had solid night, and did yeoman job of pointing out differences of he is pro strengthening aca, which took monumental political capital to install in 1st place and has been actively diminished by the current fascist in office at every turn, and the pie in the sky alternatives of free stuff and magical pony for everyone. Castro looked weak in his desperate shallow attacks on Biden, and he was incorrect factually btw on the yelping of Biden forgot comment.

Get off stage 1% poller, we get you want to make your bones trying to claw at the leader but you look like an empty attack vessel like a video game character with shallow ai pathways. Mayor Pete synapsis were firing on all cylinders, and we should be so lucky to have such an agile mind in the highest office but I get that isnt realistic. Same with Harris, she was sharp. But if we need 1 of the 3 geriatric trio of warren, sanders (who seemed esp gravely, ornery, and otherwise annoyed to guess what, point out how top 3 individuals own more than bottom 50%, we get that, we hear that, but lets participate in process man. and lastly frontrunner biden who made some unusual gaffes that highlight he was around with ben franklin, with his comment that children who hear more words early in life perform better later, but he framed it as families sitting around radio or record player, yes he said record player, as if we were in 1940s.

sigh, the field is strong, oust castro and yang, this is time for some serious work, but the best of field is burried behind big 3.

[revo]

Yang's gimmick fell very flat. He basically stole an experiment Sweden(?) tried a few years ago. Big whoop.

[DMT]

Hopefully that was the final time we see Yang, Klobuchar, and Castro on stage. Some reviewers saying Warren "disappeared" even though she spoke more than anyone but Biden. But with so many people in the stage pretty much everyone is forced into the background for long stretches.