Election 2020

[revo]

While Biden has bounced back, it seems Mayor Pete has shriveled up. He went from being consistent double digits in most recent polls to the 3%-5% range again. He must’ve lost a lot with the racial shooting controversy in South Bend.


Also, where do you see a poll improvement for Trump? Latest approval polls still has him in the same zone — a low of -17 and high of -3 (Rasmussen).

[B-Fly]

Also, where do you see a poll improvement for Trump? Latest approval polls still has him in the same zone — a low of -17 and high of -3 (Rasmussen).

In his head-to-head poll numbers against the leading Democratic contenders other than Biden.

[swampdragon]

I posted this last week and here is why I still don't trust polling in places like Ohio

This response yesterday evening was to my will you vote for Trump question. He is a high school classmate of mine - white, college educated, mid 50s, very "christian", upper/middle class, suburban Ohio - ignore his snarky Biden comment - it is the 2016 Trump voter is now a closeted Trump voter but remains a Trump voter.


Yes, I voted for Trump in 2016...primarily for SCOTUS, but Hillary was not an option either. I did hope he would succeed in improving the economy and bring steel and other heavy paying labor jobs back.

For 2020 it's hard for me not to vote conservative. I don't care for anyone on the D side, however I do think Biden would be pretty impotent so he would be less painful.

I like much of what Trump is working on for the country, but I don't like him. He is labeled some things like racist...Ds call anyone a racist at the drop of a hat. Just because he wants to control the borders and doesn't want the worst South America has to offer doesn't make him a racist. We want to vet those that want to be here, and I'm all for the vast majority being accepted in, just do it the right way. We need the workforce and these are great people coming from the south by and large.

When he says some things I wish I had another conservative choice. Could I vote in another direction, possibly. I would have to see the final D candidate and if there are any other options.

[In the Corn]

So you're telling me the moderate Democrat is the best bet to beat Trump...

frae hits the nail on the head about the Midwest view of Warren. Your liberal Democrat will win the nomination, and because of that, we will be stuck with Trump for another four years.

If the Democrats nominate Biden, Klobuchar or another moderate, they have my vote. Otherwise, I go back the to the third party.

[frae]

So you're telling me the moderate Democrat is the best bet to beat Trump...

frae hits the nail on the head about the Midwest view of Warren. Your liberal Democrat will win the nomination, and because of that, we will be stuck with Trump for another four years.

If the Democrats nominate Biden, Klobuchar or another moderate, they have my vote. Otherwise, I go back the to the third party.

Let's say Biden doesn't win and Kobuchar can't ( I don't see a path for her to win, but I do see a path for her to VP). I know Bernie and Warren are non-starters for you. What are your thoughts on Harris at this point? I know where I am on the spectrum and I honestly don't consider her really liberal, but I have a view that would be different than yours.

[The Feral Slasher]

While Biden has bounced back, it seems Mayor Pete has shriveled up.

To be fair, the water is really cold.

[The Feral Slasher]

To be fair, the water is really cold.

....

[Kevin Seitzer]

[In the Corn]

Let's say Biden doesn't win and Kobuchar can't ( I don't see a path for her to win, but I do see a path for her to VP). I know Bernie and Warren are non-starters for you. What are your thoughts on Harris at this point? I know where I am on the spectrum and I honestly don't consider her really liberal, but I have a view that would be different than yours.

Kamala is on the bubble for me. I need to hear more from her to understand her position. Let me tell you, I want so badly to vote for the Democrat, but I won't vote for a complete pendulum swing that Warren and Bernie represent.

[Teenwolf]

Kamala is on the bubble for me. I need to hear more from her to understand her position. Let me tell you, I want so badly to vote for the Democrat, but I won't vote for a complete pendulum swing that Warren and Bernie represent.

Anybody who would vote for Trump over Bernie is a fucking idiot. Voting 3rd party is mostly for elitists who are desperate to spend the next 4 years telling everybody how right they were (and as a Canadian, I might just vote 5th party or some shit, now that Greens are kissing up to Cons, so I understand the dilemma as a likely fringe party voter, but I digress...)

"complete pendulum swing" away from the highest health care costs in the world, highest incarceration rate in the world, highest gun deaths in the world, economy-crippling student debt-load, corporate funded elections and senate/lobbyist revolving door of corruption, OH, and a horrific gigantic military industrial complex... you want to keep half of that bullshit? Okay, maybe just tell me which parts of the current shitshow you want to keep so we're clear. Or maybe be specific, which of Bernie or Warren's different platforms do you disagree with? You only ever speak in this vague terminology of "too far left" or "not centrist enough" without talking about actual policy. You really drink the kool-aid when Klobuchar says "we can't forgive student debt, we can't do free college, we can't do free healthcare for all, it's just not pragmatic". There's very VERY few people with you at that Klobuchar table. Have you seen the polls? She's dead in the water, as will be Joe Biden the more people see his platform.

Also, Sanders and Warren are very different. Warren supports endless military funding and interventionism, actually promoting a policy of "green militarism" that has been widely panned, Sanders does not support any of that bullshit, he supports de-escalation around the world. Warren supports incremental health care strategy, Sanders does not. Warren is planning to embrace corporate PAC funding for the general election, Sanders does not. Warren wants to cancel 1/3 of student debt, Sanders wants to crush the whole thing. These are off the top of my head, but they're offering very different platforms. Harris and Warren are closer to each other on policy than Warren is to Bernie, IMO. Bernie offers elements of Trump's populism that WILL draw out independents, Republicans, and non-voters. The difference is that Bernie is genuine in his populist messaging about ending corruption "draining the swamp", expanding healthcare "everybody will be covered", anti-interventionism "ending stupid wars", etc. Bernie is the real deal, and all of these mysterious populist voters that broke the polls would show up for Bernie too. /rant

[Teenwolf]

The Daily Beast, with an update on the campaign staffing issues for Elizabeth Warren. New article titled

Warren Fellowship Applicants: Campaign Program was a 'Great Scam'

I'll say the same thing I did last time I posted about this issue, I have no idea what kind of benefits are offered to campaign volunteers for Bernie Sanders or other campaigns. But I do know that it seems Warren is blurring the lines between interns/fellows as a way of stealing free labour. I haven't seen that reported on about Sanders, but I do wonder what the hell he does with his 1 million volunteer army. Other campaigns don't have the same scope of problem with their volunteer numbers, so they should have a better handle on how they're used without stories like this highlighting their abuses.

Also, still no answer as to how it's totally cool that Warren and Biden cap their intern hours at 30/week and $15/hr, with lower benefits than Bernie, and yet when Bernie cuts his salaried workers to 42 hours/week at above $15/hr salary, while in negotiations for raises with the union, that's somehow bad and immoral and a sign of hypocrisy? Bernie's interns were making approximately $13/hr at their 60 hr work weeks... that means that if they converted their salary to an Elizabeth Warren or Biden work-week, they'd be working half the hours... so making $26/hr for 30 hours. Hmm... methinks Sanders' staff are doing pretty okay, when you look at what others are offering.

[revo]

In his head-to-head poll numbers against the leading Democratic contenders other than Biden.

Are you sure? Fox News poll today has Biden up 10% on Dopey, who quickly threw a temper tantrum over it.

[B-Fly]

Are you sure? Fox News poll today has Biden up 10% on Dopey, who quickly threw a temper tantrum over it.

I said "other than Biden". Trump's head-to-heads against Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg have improved materially from where they were a month or so ago. That's why I am getting more worried about the candidates whom I like the best. I'm afraid that Biden is the only Democrat who can win the states that are needed to defeat Trump.

[B-Fly]

The Boris Johnson thing further underscores my fears. I fear that we're living in a time in history where, in majority-white nations, being racist and sexist and xenophobic is an electoral asset rather than a liability. It's infuriating.

[revo]

I said "other than Biden". Trump's head-to-heads against Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg have improved materially from where they were a month or so ago. That's why I am getting more worried about the candidates whom I like the best. I'm afraid that Biden is the only Democrat who can win the states that are needed to defeat Trump.

Ah. Well, the same poll had Sanders up 6, but he was indeed beating the rest. Not sure that's changed at all, though.