Election 2020

[GwynnInTheHall]

How much does demographic help help?

I wonder the same thing.

I know I may be alone in this sentiment, but I think the presidential nominee and VP nominee should be chosen because they have the best platforms not because of electability or demographic help.

But that's just me.

[Sour Masher]

I wonder the same thing.

I know I may be alone in this sentiment, but I think the presidential nominee and VP nominee should be chosen because they have the best platforms not because of electability or demographic help.

But that's just me.

I agree completely for the top spot, and I guess I should agree for the VP pick, because the worst could always happen and that person would have to take over. However, the VP spot is pretty unimportant from a policy standpoint, so I'm totally fine with a strategic pick from the top spot to shore up weaknesses. After all, what does a VP's platform matter all that much? Does anyone think Mike Pence is behind anything important Trump is doing? I always feel that way, but especially so with this election.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I agree completely for the top spot, and I guess I should agree for the VP pick, because the worst could always happen and that person would have to take over. However, the VP spot is pretty unimportant from a policy standpoint, so I'm totally fine with a strategic pick from the top spot to shore up weaknesses. After all, what does a VP's platform matter all that much? Does anyone think Mike Pence is behind anything important Trump is doing? I always feel that way, but especially so with this election.

And did Mike Pence do anything to sway anyone to vote for or against Donald Trump?

Did Hillary's VP pick...who was her VP pick again?...sway anyone to vote for or against Hillary?

[Sour Masher]

And did Mike Pence do anything to sway anyone to vote for or against Donald Trump?

Did Hillary's VP pick...who was her VP pick again?...sway anyone to vote for or against Hillary?

Good points, but for the right candidate, needing the right votes in the right places, it may. I think Biden may have swayed a few voters who may have been wary of voting for someone so young and inexperienced. IDK. Never saw any numbers on it. I've always assumed a VP pick that was popular in his home state at least helped there. In this election, swinging one of the key states may make all of the difference.

[GwynnInTheHall]

It may seem naive, and I have been called that when it comes to the political machine and it's machinations, but I approach things of import in a, best foot forward mindset.

It's also not just politics that suffers from capitulative choice making, it's also a part of life in general. Heck I remember catching hell when I'd cast a play and leave a role or two open, when there were decent enough people to cast. Still I waited, went looking and eventually (for the most part) found better suited actors for the roles I'd left vacant. It wasn't popular, but my shows were better because of it.

It's a harder way to go about things and it leads to quite a bit of frustration at times, but in the end--it, at the very least. feels more rewarding.

Hopefully, one day, we can find a way to approach all of or choices in that manner.

It sure would be an interesting experiment to say the least.

[revo]

How much does demographic help help?

Historically, a running mate is chosen to balance out the ticket, and so demographics or geography usually should be of high importance. Pence was a good strategic choice for Trump, a New Yorker, and helped solidified the Midwest and Evangelical vote.

Kaine was a very poor choice for Clinton. They already had Virginia, and he added little else. I guess they thought they had it in the bag and he added other qualities that was unknown to voters. But he obviously didn't help.

VP candidates have been somewhat important and helpful over the years -- LBJ gave JFK legitimacy in the south; Reagan, who had questions about his experience, added Bush, a Washington power-broker; Obama, a relative newbie in national politics, added Biden, a longtime player. All helped legitimize the candidates. OTOH, a bad choice can sink a candidate (i.e. Sarah Palin).

So yes, I believe a good VP choice can be very helpful.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Historically, a running mate is chosen to balance out the ticket, and so demographics or geography usually should be of high importance. Pence was a good strategic choice for Trump, a New Yorker, and helped solidified the Midwest and Evangelical vote.

Kaine was a very poor choice for Clinton. They already had Virginia, and he added little else. I guess they thought they had it in the bag and he added other qualities that was unknown to voters. But he obviously didn't help.

VP candidates have been somewhat important and helpful over the years -- LBJ gave JFK legitimacy in the south; Reagan, who had questions about his experience, added Bush, a Washington power-broker; Obama, a relative newbie in national politics, added Biden, a longtime player. All helped legitimize the candidates. OTOH, a bad choice can sink a candidate (i.e. Sarah Palin).

So yes, I believe a good VP choice can be very helpful.

I don't really buy the demographics argument (especially) or the geography argument (nowadays--how much power does a state really get from a VP selection, as opposed to 50 or 100 years ago). I do buy the "VP selection undermines the wisdom of the presidential candidate" (Palin) and Washington power broker or party power broker arguments to a greater extent.

None of your examples except the one that hurt the candidate (Palin) were choices based on balancing a demographic.

[revo]

I don't really buy the demographics argument (especially) or the geography argument (nowadays--how much power does a state really get from a VP selection, as opposed to 50 or 100 years ago). I do buy the "VP selection undermines the wisdom of the presidential candidate" (Palin) and Washington power broker or party power broker arguments to a greater extent.

None of your examples except the one that hurt the candidate (Palin) were choices based on balancing a demographic.

Nate Silver did a study (prior to the 2012 election, mind you). Between 1988-2008, a VP choice added 4.7% in their home state over the prior election (11 instances, total net pts added in the vote of 51.7%).

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/the-overrated-vice-presidential-home-state-effect/

(Just FYI, Ryan added 3.6% in 2012, Pence 2.3% in 2016, and Kaine lost 2.3% in 2016.)

Another study showed that since 1884, VPs picks added 2.7% in their home state and that was enough to sway four elections since 1960.

https://www.npr.org/2016/06/01/480038429/swing-state-vp-picks-dont-help-candidates-much-so-what-does-work

So in a tight election like we expect in 2020, that could be extremely significant in a swing state.

[frae]

Nate Silver did a study (prior to the 2012 election, mind you). Between 1988-2008, a VP choice added 4.7% in their home state over the prior election (11 instances, total net pts added in the vote of 51.7%).

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/the-overrated-vice-presidential-home-state-effect/

(Just FYI, Ryan added 3.6% in 2012, Pence 2.3% in 2016, and Kaine lost 2.3% in 2016.)

Another study showed that since 1884, VPs picks added 2.7% in their home state and that was enough to sway four elections since 1960.

https://www.npr.org/2016/06/01/480038429/swing-state-vp-picks-dont-help-candidates-much-so-what-does-work

So in a tight election like we expect in 2020, that could be extremely significant in a swing state.

So the states we have generally been saying are either toss-up or leans would be...

WI
PA
MI
AZ
NC
FL
NH
IA
GA
OH
NV
MN
I'll throw in TX but I still don't think Democrats can get there.

So from that list, the bottom is probably not states either side changes, but I'll include them. You need to know who is at the top before you try to balance anything out but for giggles, we can try pairing people up...

Biden - He probably would have to pick a woman. Abrams would be a good fit and while throwing two "moderates" on the ticket would be hard Klobuchar also will play well in the midwest.

Sanders - My inclination is again female of color, but that list isn't long and I don't think Harris takes VP so yeah Abrams. Klobuchar again helps in the midwest but are these two too far apart on issues? Castro could give the ticket diversity.

Warren - Warren needs help with African American vote so she in my mind would be best served with black VP. Booker is probably her best bet. Sure no regional help there but I think he would be good. Gillum and Abrams are possible and both are in states that could help, GA less likely but possible.

Harris - Castro and Pete are both possible here. This would be the youngest ticket we could put up. Harris already has the African American vote and Pete plays well in the midwest. Castro has shown he can handle the stage and would help drive the Latino vote so while not helping with a state individually both help with a region or voting group. She could also look at Brown from Ohio as again it will play well in that region and while Ohio is not really a toss-up anymore he would play well in MI, WI, and PA.

I won't do the people from 5 down because it seems so unlikely at this point. So my main VP candidates as of today are...

Abrams
Klobuchar
Booker
Castro
Pete
Gillum
S Brown

We don't have a lot of diversity in positions above the House of Reps to pick from so if it is Sanders, Biden or Warren the list gets short. I do think Sanders or Biden probably really need to look for a female VP. Harris has the most choices open to her and could go for just about anyone. From those states I listed we on the left would all agree we need PA, MI, and WI. None of the senators or governors in those states strikes me as dynamic, but if it is Harris she could really play to one of those states and take one of them. A fun thing to think about and totally possible I didn't mention who they will pick.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Nate Silver did a study (prior to the 2012 election, mind you). Between 1988-2008, a VP choice added 4.7% in their home state over the prior election (11 instances, total net pts added in the vote of 51.7%).

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/the-overrated-vice-presidential-home-state-effect/

(Just FYI, Ryan added 3.6% in 2012, Pence 2.3% in 2016, and Kaine lost 2.3% in 2016.)

Another study showed that since 1884, VPs picks added 2.7% in their home state and that was enough to sway four elections since 1960.

https://www.npr.org/2016/06/01/480038429/swing-state-vp-picks-dont-help-candidates-much-so-what-does-work

So in a tight election like we expect in 2020, that could be extremely significant in a swing state.

Interesting. Thanks.

[revo]

Kamala Harris came out with a plan to allocate $100Bn for down payment assistance in historically redlined areas. I dislike this plan for two reasons -- 1) home ownership is more than just a down payment, so this could be disastrous; and 2) this is just adding to the perception that Dems are trying to give handouts to everyone.

[Judge Jude]

sounds vaguely like the walkup to 2008, no? and that was started under Bush?
you're the financial guy, so as they say on sports talk radio - I'll hang up and wait for your response.

[revo]

sounds vaguely like the walkup to 2008, no? and that was started under Bush?
you're the financial guy, so as they say on sports talk radio - I'll hang up and wait for your response.

Yes, exactly. It’s easy to walk away when you have no skin in the game.

[revo]

Despite everything Biden just encountered, this ABC/Wash Post poll still has him as the only Dem contender sure to best Trump:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 53, Trump 43	[B]Biden +10[/B]
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	ABC News/Wash Post	Harris 48, Trump 46	Harris +2
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	ABC News/Wash Post	Sanders 49, Trump 48	Sanders +1
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	ABC News/Wash Post	Warren 48, Trump 48	Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	ABC News/Wash Post	Buttigieg 47, Trump 47	Tie

[revo]

Billionaire activist and vociferous Trump hater Tom Steyer plans to enter the 2020 race as a Democrat.

Meanwhile, we have our first dropout in Rep. Eric Swalwell, who is ending his longshot '20 bid.