Election 2020

[B-Fly]

I think I'm probably selling Bernie Sanders too short. I do think he's identified the most systemic, critical problems and has been critical in making the case for taking them on. I don't think he's better than Warren, but he deserves to be higher on my list with Warren and Harris.

[frae]

Mayor Pete raises just under $25 Million in Q2. Not sure where others will fall but that is over triple his Q1 total...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/pete-buttigieg-second-quarter-fundraising.html

[B-Fly]

It will be interesting to see what Mayor Pete chooses to do next if he isn't President or Vice President. He's so incredibly talented. Can he win a statewide race in Indiana, though, or is Indiana too red at this point?

[frae]

It will be interesting to see what Mayor Pete chooses to do next if he isn't President or Vice President. He's so incredibly talented. Can he win a statewide race in Indiana, though, or is Indiana too red at this point?

It'll be tough but Bayh and Donnelly held the Senate seats not that long ago. In a vacum, I think he could be a good VP Candidate but if he isn't 2022 Senate is the next statewide race to run for. Indiana Governor is up in 2020 and unless he were to drop out really early from the Pres. race that isn't an option. He has shown no real interest in congress, but his South Bend district is currently held by a Rep. If nothing comes from this 2020 campaign maybe he will run for US Senate in 2022.

[B-Fly]

It'll be tough but Bayh and Donnelly held the Senate seats not that long ago. In a vacum, I think he could be a good VP Candidate but if he isn't 2022 Senate is the next statewide race to run for. Indiana Governor is up in 2020 and unless he were to drop out really early from the Pres. race that isn't an option. He has shown no real interest in congress, but his South Bend district is currently held by a Rep. If nothing comes from this 2020 campaign maybe he will run for US Senate in 2022.

He'd also be a great White House Communications Director, but not sure if that's a gig he'd want.

[frae]

More in line with what I expected for everyone but Pete, Harris with a really big jump. This is an A- poll but as always just one data point.

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1145784429970894849

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

[DMT]

More in line what I expected for everyone but Pete, Harris with a really big jump.

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1145784429970894849

Biden 22%
Harris 17%
Warren 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 4%

Excellent!

[The Feral Slasher]

I hesitate to post this, but isn't it great that the whole Russia scare is a big nothingburger so far ? We have a lot more important issues to deal with

[frae]

Iowa Poll of likely Dem Caucus goers...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/

Biden 24%
Harris 16%
Warren 13%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 6%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 2%

All the usual caveats but nice bump for Harris in a state on paper that may not seem friendly to her. she was in single digits in all previous Iowa only polls. Sanders had been teens or low 20's in one and Pete had been in double digits in the last polls from Iowa. Just interesting data points to follow.

[onejayhawk]

In the first post debate poll, we have Biden -5, Harris +6 and the rest virtually unchangedas compared to the same poll earlier in the week. I thought there might be more movement but I was wrong.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Iowa Poll of likely Dem Caucus goers...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/

Biden 24%
Harris 16%
Warren 13%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 6%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 2%

All the usual caveats but nice bump for Harris in a state on paper that may not seem friendly to her. she was in single digits in all previous Iowa only polls. Sanders had been teens or low 20's in one and Pete had been in double digits in the last polls from Iowa. Just interesting data points to follow.

The real poll should be this weekend. DM Register is doing a monthly poll of Iowa. The next one will be all post debate.

J

[Kevin Seitzer]

This is why I said Beto O'Rourke wasn't jeopardizing anything by running for president instead of trying to knock off John Cornyn:



Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...llins-in-2020/

Texas still has a substantial lean. Cornyn isn't any more vulnerable than Lindsey Graham. In fact, I'd argue Cornyn is probably a bit safer than the partisan lean suggests, since he is well respected in Texas. Ted Cruz was just an exceptionally weak candidate for Beto to lose by only 3 percentage points in Texas. Beto was a strong candidate and ran a good campaign, and that contributed, too, but Cruz was far weaker than Cornyn will be.

[onejayhawk]

There is a reason a lot of people call Collins a RINO. She has to be in her electorate.

Cornyn is a seat warmer, but he's a loyal seat warmer. Texas's national politics already runs through Ted Cruz.

J

[frae]

More data points where Biden and Sanders slip...

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1146121136813596672?s=21

Biden 22%
Harris 20%
Warren 14%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 3%
Rest of the field at 1% or less.

Someone listed where they were compared to last months q poll for a reference point

Biden 22% (-8 since last month)
Harris 20% (+13)
Warren 14% (-1)
Sanders 13% (-6)
Buttigieg 4% (-4)
Booker 3% (+2)
O’Rourke 1% (-2)
Klobucahr 1% (-)
Castro 1% (+1)
Gabbard 1% (+1)
Yang 1% (-)

Well Pete isn’t getting a significant boost in any poll so I need to say I got that guess wrong but the Harris gain was right. We now have a clear top 4 and it’s possible Sanders is 4th. Still too early but Q is a good poll.

[B-Fly]

Well Pete isn’t getting a significant boost in any poll so I need to say I got that guess wrong

I wonder if Buttigieg's one response about the Democratic Party generally not talking about religion and the Republican Party claiming alignment with Christianity but then being un-Christian in their position toward children/families at the border hurt him. In one of my Facebook groups, there were a few Christians who found that argument deeply offensive (including one or two who were offended that someone who touts his gay marriage would dare to opine on what makes one a good Christian). Obama, in whose 2008 mold Buttigieg is running, got himself in a bit of trouble when talking about how the "opposition" was composed of people who "cling to guns and religion." And more tangentially, Clinton in 2016 stumbled with the "basket of deplorables" line. I think it's always very risky to engage in rhetoric that broadly questions the morality of supporters of a particular candidate or party. While I think Buttigieg meant to address GOP lawmakers and not their supporters, obviously there are a lot of Christian voters who support strong/strict immigration policies and think that a strong policy deterrence - "don't even try to come here illegally" - is the most "Christian" way to minimize the suffering from border crossings and detentions.

[frae]

I wonder if Buttigieg's one response about the Democratic Party generally not talking about religion and the Republican Party claiming alignment with Christianity but then being un-Christian in their position toward children/families at the border hurt him. In one of my Facebook groups, there were a few Christians who found that argument deeply offensive (including one or two who were offended that someone who touts his gay marriage would dare to opine on what makes one a good Christian). Obama, in whose 2008 mold Buttigieg is running, got himself in a bit of trouble when talking about how the "opposition" was composed of people who "cling to guns and religion." And more tangentially, Clinton in 2016 stumbled with the "basket of deplorables" line. I think it's always very risky to engage in rhetoric that broadly questions the morality of supporters of a particular candidate or party. While I think Buttigieg meant to address GOP lawmakers and not their supporters, obviously there are a lot of Christian voters who support strong/strict immigration policies and think that a strong policy deterrence - "don't even try to come here illegally" - is the most "Christian" way to minimize the suffering from border crossings and detentions.

While that may be true this probably remains Pete’s bigger problem

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1146120825210376193?s=21

Biden 31%
Harris 27%
Sanders 16%
Booker 5%
Warren 4%
Yang 2%
O'Rourke 1%
Buttigieg 0%

Also not great for Biden as I think that number was up near 50 before. Warren also will need to make connections with black voters