Election 2020

[DMT]

"I do not view abortion as a choice and a right."

I think your reading comprehension needs work.

Right, ignoring context for a gotcha sound bite is the fundamental building block of comprehension.

[Teenwolf]

Right, ignoring context for a gotcha sound bite is the fundamental building block of comprehension.

There's no gotcha quotes. There's like 40 years of him saying the same things. He's furthest right on the issue among the Democratic candidates. Whether that helps or hurts him in a general election is another question, but it shouldn't help him in the primary. That's all I'm saying.

[Bernie Brewer]

Beating Trump doesn't mean shit without giving solutions to fix the problems. Just saying "Trump is evil and bad and his supporters are deplorable" is going to lose again. That's what Biden would do. My hatred of Biden is specifically because he would likely lose to Trump, certainly the most likely to lose to Trump...

So beating Trump is also my priority! I'm just watching the goings on of the campaign cycle closer than you polling nerds.

You prefer to ignore reality, that's fine. I think reading heavily into polling before the 1st of 12 debates while ignoring the day to day happenings is goofy as fuck. I also find it funny that you haven't mentioned Biden's precipitous slide in polling. Slidin' Biden, there's one for Trump.

Nobody taking me up on my avatar bet that Biden loses? I wanna say he drops outside the top 3, but I would do an avatar bet that he doesn't take the nomination. C'mon, you were so confident a month ago, when I said Biden would go down and down as folks find out what a scumbag he is. It's been happening, down 10 pts on RCP. He keeps doing self inflicted damage, I post about it, and you all defend it... yet its cost him 25% of his support, and he hasn't even been in the public eye! Gee, I wonder why nobody will take me up on my bet? Seems my record is pretty solid to this point.

I’ve got one piece of advice for any Democrat. Whether you think it to be true or not, it’s probably not real smart to piss off his purported supporters by calling them deplorables. We saw how well that worked in 2016! Many are not as enamored with him as you seemingly think. But if you call them names, they’re probably going to tune out the Dems and vote party over person.

[Judge Jude]

In my life I have never seen, 18 months out, a chance for a landslide in a Presidential election for both parties.

if Trump got off Twitter, laid low, and actually offered sensible projects such as infrastructure, I would think he keeps his base and can win easily if the economy cooperates.

yeah, I doubt that happens. so if the Dems put up a sensible candidate, they could crush him.

[Bernie Brewer]

Acknowledging that abortions are undesirable and that decreasing the number of abortions is a shared goal does not equal saying reproductive rights should be reduced. You're blinded by your loathing of Biden and that's why others rarely respond to your posts about him.

Um, this! Both sentences.

I think Biden’s quote is probably where the vast majority stands on this issue. I’m not sure what’s in it that talks about taking rights away from women. It is already a legal right, but I think Biden is saying that women making this decision are thinking about it being a right or a choice, they’re thinking that it’s an incredibly difficult decision, which in effect acknowledges it is both a right and a choice. And, that no woman takes this option lightly.

[In the Corn]

Acknowledging that abortions are undesirable and that decreasing the number of abortions is a shared goal does not equal saying reproductive rights should be reduced. You're blinded by your loathing of Biden and that's why others rarely respond to your posts about him.

Um, this! Both sentences.

I think Biden’s quote is probably where the vast majority stands on this issue. I’m not sure what’s in it that talks about taking rights away from women. It is already a legal right, but I think Biden is saying that women making this decision are thinking about it being a right or a choice, they’re thinking that it’s an incredibly difficult decision, which in effect acknowledges it is both a right and a choice. And, that no woman takes this option lightly.

This stance will pull Republicans from Trump who are not hardline pro-lifers. I align with Biden's thinking, and I would think I am someone the Democrats would want in their column.

[Teenwolf]

This stance will pull Republicans from Trump who are not hardline pro-lifers. I align with Biden's thinking, and I would think I am someone the Democrats would want in their column.

Can one of you polling obsessives please inform ITC of the level of hardcore support Trump has built for himself within the Republican base? He's been holding rallies for 4 straight years. There is no fucking chance of peeling away Trump supporters without discouraging a greater number of Democrats from voting. It's a losing strategy.

[onejayhawk]

Can one of you polling obsessives please inform ITC of the level of hardcore support Trump has built for himself within the Republican base? He's been holding rallies for 4 straight years. There is no fucking chance of peeling away Trump supporters without discouraging a greater number of Democrats from voting. It's a losing strategy.

One of the things that should be clear by now is that Trump built a fair portion of his base from non-Republicans. A significant fraction were non-voting before they turned to Trump. It is also a group that seems to be poll averse.

He has won the Republican base since he took office. They were starting to come before the election. You can track it in Gary Johnson's (L) polling numbers. He was in double digits in September or October but finished at 3.2%. Almost all of that went to Trump.

J

[nots]

almost all of that went up in smoke.

J

ftfy ��

[revo]

Latest poll, Florida. More bad news that will be spun by Dopey as fake:

"A new 2020 poll released hours before Donald Trump formally launches his re-election bid in Florida shows the president trailing Democratic White House hopefuls Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the nation’s largest swing state.

The former vice president leads Trump among Florida voters by 50-41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll published Tuesday ahead of the president’s campaign kickoff rally at Orlando’s Amway Center.

Trump also trails the Vermont senator by a 48-42 percent margin, while head-to-head match-ups pitting the president against other top-polling Democratic rivals are “too close to call,” according to the survey."

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/18/2020-florida-poll-trump-biden-sanders-1368167

Florida: Trump vs. Biden	Quinnipiac	Biden 50, Trump 41	Biden +9
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 48, Trump 42	Sanders +6
Florida: Trump vs. Warren	Quinnipiac	Warren 47, Trump 43	Warren +4
Florida: Trump vs. Harris	Quinnipiac	Trump 44, Harris 45	Harris +1
Florida: Trump vs. Buttigieg	Quinnipiac	Trump 43, Buttigieg 44	Buttigieg +1
Florida: Trump vs. O'Rourke	Quinnipiac	O'Rourke 45, Trump 44	O'Rourke +1

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary	Quinnipiac	Biden 41, Sanders 14, Warren 12, Buttigieg 8, Harris 6, O'Rourke 1, Booker 1, Klobuchar 1, Castro 0, Yang 0, Gillibrand 0, Moulton 0, Gravel 0	Biden +27

[onejayhawk]

ftfy ��

Definitely ?? You can trace Trump winning to the votes he pulled from Johnson support in at least three states including Michigan.

Polls aren't fake but they aren't worth much yet. Iowa, yes. You are already getting serious interest and actual decisions.

National and two party polls are worth very little but check back in 15 months. By then the candidates will be set and they may mean something useful.

J

[Teenwolf]

Definitely ?? You can trace Trump winning to the votes he pulled from Johnson support in at least three states including Michigan.

Polls aren't fake but they aren't worth much yet. Iowa, yes. You are already getting serious interest and actual decisions.

National and two party polls are worth very little but check back in 15 months. By then the candidates will be set and they may mean something useful.

J

I could buy your theory on this one singular issue. Johnson crashed and burned hard, and polling early on had looked like he could get as much as 10% of the vote.

[revo]

Biden saying he worked with segregationists probably wasn’t his best tactic to gain young voters.

[Teenwolf]

Biden saying he worked with segregationists probably wasn’t his best tactic to gain young voters.

Its unreal, this strategy of reaching across the aisle. I knew he would be bombarded because of it, but I didn't see Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke to be the ones laying down the lumber... very very happy with this development. It's good for the party to expose Biden as a scumbag as early as possible to not taint the rest of the field.

How many signed up for my Biden avatar bet? Just revo? I should have made the call when he was at 42% instead of 32%.

Senator Kamala Harris of California said the former vice president “doesn’t understand the history of our country and the dark history of our country,” and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey said Mr. Biden should immediately apologize for using segregationists to make a point about civility in the Senate.

Ms. Harris and Mr. Booker, who are both black, were not alone: Other candidates including Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont also weighed in with criticism. And even some of Mr. Biden’s senior campaign advisers were privately shaken by his remarks.

Yet for much of the day, Mr. Biden and his campaign appeared publicly unbowed and intent on defending, or at least explaining, his worldview of politics, which is rooted in his early days in the Senate when, he said, legislators who disagreed still worked together. He cited two defenders of segregation, Senators James O. Eastland of Mississippi and Herman E. Talmadge of Georgia, to make that point.

“Apologize for what?” he said Wednesday evening before appearing at a fund-raiser in Maryland, adding that he “could not have disagreed with Jim Eastland more.”

Asked by reporters about Mr. Booker’s demand that he apologize for his remarks, Mr. Biden said: “Cory should apologize. He knows better. There’s not a racist bone in my body. I’ve been involved in civil rights my whole career, period, period, period.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/us/politics/biden-eastland.html

It bothers me that Biden simply lies. He was against desegregation. He acts like video of himself doesn't exist to refute his new statements. That won't go well.

The most insane part might be demanding an apology from Cory Booker for criticizing him. What better representation of white supremacy could there be? I also love the part that mentions Biden's team being "privately shaken"... damn, so delicious.

[Teenwolf]

I realize that it hasn't been explicitly mentioned, so I'll clarify the point that Booker was upset with is that Biden claimed Eastland "never called me 'boy', he called me 'son'." Gee, I wonder why he didn't call Joe Biden 'boy'? Anybody have any insights for Uncle Joe?