Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

I don't know if this is the thread for this, but I really don't see being against free college as being a big loser for centrist dems in this race. To me, the only litmus test progressive issue is health care. As much as I'd like it to be the Green Deal too, I sadly don't think most voters agree.

I have two young boys who I am scared about in terms of paying for college. College costs have sky rocketed and something needs to be done about it. I work at a college. All that said, I don't think free college for all is the right solution to this problem. Not everyone should go to college. I see many students who are going into debt and spending their parents money that shouldn't be doing that. They won't end up using those degrees, even if they get them. A better solution is to give options. Some kind of support to control college costs for all, and then credits to young people to pursue more options than just 4 year degrees. Our vocational education rate is way lower than most other countries, and there is a stigma about it that should not be there. I don't think it is an effective use of resources to spend tax payer dollars to make university education free for all, when college is not for everyone. And I am someone who believes in the value of the college experience and a liberal arts education. But I also see the realities that it isn't for everyone every day.

This was posted late Feb. SM knows what's up, one of the few folks here following the goings on more than polling. Med4All and Green New Deal are the two biggest policy priorities for voters at this point.

Yet B-Fly claims it's a good thing that Warren is running as far from Med4All as she can. Seems like being against the #1 priority for 90% of Dem voters is a bad strategy, but most voters haven't observed this from her yet. It's going to hurt her.

Free college is relatively cheap. The last military budget increase could have paid for it with money to spare. So I disagree with the 2nd part that we can't always have nice things. That's a Republican talking point. For someone who claims "we need big systemic changes", she sure seems afraid to support the boldest progressive initiatives. "Multiple avenues to quality healthcare" + "Green Military" will show a huge gap between Sanders and Warren. Sanders has specific plans, Warren has pablum for warhawks and health insurers. Hmm... I wonder when folks will see it. She won't reveal much in the first debate with a stage full of pretenders, but I'm hoping Tulsi smacks her around on these issues.

[Teenwolf]

"Seems my record is pretty solid to this point."

I'll bite


what election results have you correctly predicted here or anywhere that outsmarted the polling?

and I hope you appreciate that I am asking a real question - and am willing to appreciate any response.

I'm speaking merely of my predictive record in this election cycle, so clearly there's a long way to go. I'm not talking about wins and losses, just the goings on, which most of you ignore as I post about it.

When Bernie and AOC first came up with the phrase 'Green New Deal', well before it was announced as a policy, I predicted that it would become a major 2020 issue. Many here said that it was foolish, and too extreme, etc. Its now a top 3 issue.

When candidates like Klobuchar and Beto were lauded as possible frontrunners and I said they each had zero, nothing, nada... y'all mocked me. "Oh, TW thinks Beto's fundraising is suspect because he's a brainwashed Bernie bro"... turns out Beto DID cheat on his first day fundraising totals, something like $300K was promised to his general election if he wins the nomination, and he counted that $300K in his total. I railed about his idiotic table standing and empty words, and y'all said he had a shot. Now he looks to most like a sad and defeated version of Buttigieg, taking all the "nicest smile" voters. Same with Klobuchar, many here said she would appeal to centrists, I claimed she had less than zero chance at surging. She's toast, unable to break into the 2% range. When Biden announced, Revo acted like a 42% command of the vote was likely to hold. I claimed then that Biden's 1st day of campaigning would be his best day. He's slid 10 pts so far.

I think I've been right on a lot of things in the last few months, lots I'm surely forgetting. Anything I've predicted that's been proven horribly wrong this election cycle? I can't think of anything I've been surprised by. Oh, I guess I'm surprised the DNC didn't protect Biden in the 1st debate like I predicted.

[Teenwolf]

"Seems my record is pretty solid to this point."

I'll bite


what election results have you correctly predicted here or anywhere that outsmarted the polling?

and I hope you appreciate that I am asking a real question - and am willing to appreciate any response.

Avatar bet, if Biden finishes outside of the top 2, you adopt a Biden avatar of my choosing. If Biden wins the nomination, you choose the Biden avatar of your choosing...

If Biden finishes 2nd, we call it a draw. That would seem to be pretty fair rules in a predictive battle, no? Any other election prediction you'd like to make?

[revo]

Beating Trump isn't the real issue.

Restoring integrity/ethics to our democracy is.

Of course that's important, but in order to do that, the madman has to lose, hence the Beating Trump part. You're putting the cart before the horse.

And TW, I'll take you up on an avatar bet as well. I'll also add a Sanders bet -- he doesn't finish in the Top 2.


And just in time for another critical battleground state poll - Michigan. Guess who?

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	EPIC-MRA	Biden 52, Trump 41	[B]Biden +11[/B]

[Teenwolf]

Of course that's important, but in order to do that, the madman has to lose, hence the Beating Trump part. You're putting the cart before the horse.

And TW, I'll take you up on an avatar bet as well. I'll also add a Sanders bet -- he doesn't finish in the Top 2.


And just in time for another critical battleground state poll - Michigan. Guess who?

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	EPIC-MRA	Biden 52, Trump 41	[B]Biden +11[/B]

I'm leaving Bernie out of the avatar bet. He has the fiercest opposition, mainstream media shitting on him constantly. I think Bernie will have a very hard fight to win the nomination, but would be most likely to landslide the general. I'm cautiously optimistic that voters will see through the media smears, but it's no sure thing.

I'm absolutely sure that Biden will continue to pull feces from his diaper to smear on the walls. Your lack of critical assessment of Biden is quite clear, and I'm quite confident his precipitous slide will continue. Should be fun to monitor, slidin' Biden.

[swampdragon]

Gwynn-

would you rather have a democratic candidate fight the good fight and lose to Trump
or a democratic candidate that you don't align with completely win?

me - I want to see Trump lose so that the country can right itself sooner than later

[Teenwolf]

Latest example of Biden's upcoming problems, video surfaced from 2006.

"I do not view abortion as a choice and a right. I think it's always a tragedy, and I think that it should be rare and safe. And I think we should be focusing on how to limit the number of abortions, and they oughta be able to have a common ground and consensus as to do that. I think the vast majority of the American people think that that can be done. But unfortunately we're put in a position, you're either eliminate all abortions, or its quote abortion on demand. The fact of the matter is, I've never known of a woman having an abortion saying "by the way, I feel like havin' an abortion." Its always a tragic decision made and it's always a difficult decision. And I think we should focus on how to prev-... how to deal with women not wanting abortions."

See, he knows what women secretly want, which is the government controlling their bodily autonomy. Just like a gentle back rub, or a playful sniff of the hair, uncle Joe knows what women really want. Trust him, and his good judgment about what women really want.

2006? That won't play well.

[frae]

I'm leaving Bernie out of the avatar bet. He has the fiercest opposition, mainstream media shitting on him constantly. I think Bernie will have a very hard fight to win the nomination, but would be most likely to landslide the general. I'm cautiously optimistic that voters will see through the media smears, but it's no sure thing.

I'm absolutely sure that Biden will continue to pull feces from his diaper to smear on the walls. Your lack of critical assessment of Biden is quite clear, and I'm quite confident his precipitous slide will continue. Should be fun to monitor, slidin' Biden.

I am not rooting for Biden and I've said singular polls mean nothing and even the aggregate right now doesn't mean much, just look at where the Republicans were at this time in 2015. I just think both Biden and Sanders will fade for different reasons. So I don't want to bet because if you said Biden and Sanders or the field I'll take the field.

[DMT]

Latest example of Biden's upcoming problems, video surfaced from 2006.

"I do not view abortion as a choice and a right. I think it's always a tragedy, and I think that it should be rare and safe. And I think we should be focusing on how to limit the number of abortions, and they oughta be able to have a common ground and consensus as to do that. I think the vast majority of the American people think that that can be done. But unfortunately we're put in a position, you're either eliminate all abortions, or its quote abortion on demand. The fact of the matter is, I've never known of a woman having an abortion saying "by the way, I feel like havin' an abortion." Its always a tragic decision made and it's always a difficult decision. And I think we should focus on how to prev-... how to deal with women not wanting abortions."

See, he knows what women secretly want, which is the government controlling their bodily autonomy. Just like a gentle back rub, or a playful sniff of the hair, uncle Joe knows what women really want. Trust him, and his good judgment about what women really want.

2006? That won't play well.

Dude that's just a ridiculous interpretation of his comments.

[revo]

I'm leaving Bernie out of the avatar bet. He has the fiercest opposition, mainstream media shitting on him constantly. I think Bernie will have a very hard fight to win the nomination, but would be most likely to landslide the general. I'm cautiously optimistic that voters will see through the media smears, but it's no sure thing.

The MSM hates Trump with a passion and wants him gone, but oh, of all the Dem candidates looking to take Trump down, they also hate Bernie too. And front-runner Biden doesn't have a target on his back? Seems like a major cop out, but OK. Not surprising.

And what "precipitous slide?" Between January and May, Biden was polling consistently between 27-30 and held a about a 9 pt lead over his chief rival, Bernie. Now he's at 32% in the RCP average and has a 16 pt lead. Sure, he's down from his initial official entry bump, but he's still WAY above where he was earlier this year.

[Teenwolf]

Dude that's just a ridiculous interpretation of his comments.

Not as ridiculous as defending his abortion stance. Take a shot!

[Teenwolf]

The MSM hates Trump with a passion and wants him gone, but oh, of all the Dem candidates looking to take Trump down, they also hate Bernie too. And front-runner Biden doesn't have a target on his back? Seems like a major cop out, but OK. Not surprising.

And what "precipitous slide?" Between January and May, Biden was polling consistently between 27-30 and held a about a 9 pt lead over his chief rival, Bernie. Now he's at 32% in the RCP average and has a 16 pt lead. Sure, he's down from his initial official entry bump, but he's still WAY above where he was earlier this year.

Sliding 42 down to 32 since his announcement is... not sliding? Okay... where will Biden be 2 months from now, 2 weeks after the 2nd debates? Down from 32 or up? I would guess he sheds 5-10 more pts in that time.

Edit to add: i have no clue what you're saying about MSM, turn down the sarcasm level so I can understand your point.

[DMT]

Not as ridiculous as defending his abortion stance. Take a shot!

Acknowledging that abortions are undesirable and that decreasing the number of abortions is a shared goal does not equal saying reproductive rights should be reduced. You're blinded by your loathing of Biden and that's why others rarely respond to your posts about him.

[Teenwolf]

Acknowledging that abortions are undesirable and that decreasing the number of abortions is a shared goal does not equal saying reproductive rights should be reduced. You're blinded by your loathing of Biden and that's why others rarely respond to your posts about him.

"I do not view abortion as a choice and a right."

I think your reading comprehension needs work.

[frae]

"I do not view abortion as a choice and a right."

I think your reading comprehension needs work.

Biden is not as left as a lot of the party here, but he has regularly supported Roe v Wade and as long as he is nominating judges who see Roe v Wade as law of the land I can live with that. He has backtracked on Hyde now and will probably wind up moving a little left on somethings if he wants to be the nominee the same way McCain had to move right. Again he isn't my first choice, but if he is the nominee I'll fall in line. Party primaries are always interesting, the most active people in a primary are the people who are more left or right in your party but nominating the people that represent that group isn't always a winning formula. We will see where this goes, there is such a long way to go, we are what 6 plus months from the first primary?