Election 2020

[frae]

It's actually great that he does this. He's not seeing the forest through the trees. If he wants to think he's at 50% because one highly-skewed poll says so, more power to him. If he wants to reject his internal polling which shows him getting battered because it's not what he wants to see, more power to him.

Just like the Dems in 2016 had a false sense of security with polls that showed Hillary comfortably ahead nationally, let Dopey believe he's doing much better than he really is.

What I think I most failed to see was that the predicted 2.5 point popular vote win just isn't enough to mean an electoral win. Clinton won by 2.1 points I think in the popular vote, but the swing in MI and WI was more than the margin of error and the flip there was surprising and I am putting those two states on the Clinton campaign. PA was in the margin of error in a lot of polls and the other "toss-ups" (FL, NC, and OH) were all within the margin of error. Polls and projections just give us a starting point of what is likely to happen and 2016 definitely hammered that home for me. Polls are useful and an aggregate of the polls is best, but they aren't saying this is definitely what will happen. Hopefully others in my party learned our lesson and will drag everyone we know to the polls in 2020.

[Steve 2.0]

I get so annoyed when people talk about themselves in the third person.

Steve 2.0 agrees with this take.

[onejayhawk]

Steve 2.0 agrees with this take.

Well played.

J

[Steve 2.0]

Well played.

J

Steve 2.0 agrees with this take.

[Teenwolf]

Joe Biden with another interesting few days. I think he's panicking.

First, he tweets "Happy #BestFriendsDay to my friend, @BarackObama." Accompanying a pic of 2 literal friendship bracelets that say Joe and Barack.

CNN's David Axelrod mocked a tweet from former Vice President Joe Biden to former President Obama celebrating "Best Friends Day," with the former Obama-Biden campaign chief strategist asking if it was joke.

"This is a joke, right?" Axelrod, who hosts "The Axe Files" on CNN, asked in a tweet on Sunday to his 1.1 million followers after Biden, a 2020 presidential candidate, wished Obama "happy #BestFriendsDay" on Saturday. Biden's post included a photo of the bracelets he shared to celebrate his Obama's 55th birthday in Aug. 2016

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4...s-a-joke-right

Next, I cannot believe this is real. For his major campaign promise... Joe Biden announced that he was going to cure cancer.

I'm going to transcribe this entire statement from Biden to illustrate how nuts he is.

"A lot of you understand what loss is. When a loss occurs, you know that uh, people come up and tell you I understand if you lose a husband, a wife, a son, a daughter, a family member, and a lot of time feel like saying 'Listen, I know how you feel,' and hadn't. You'd look at them and you'd feel like saying 'you have no idea how I feel.' But when it happens to you, you know.

That's why I've, uh, worked so hard in my career to make sure that, uh... I promise you, if I'm elected President, you're gonna see the single most important thing that changes America, is we're gonna cure cancer."

Aside from how bizarre and maniacal that campaign promise is... does anybody else here think that if he does something like this on stage at a debate he could be laughed/booed off the stage? What in the actual fuck kind of campaign pledge is that? Cure cancer! Fighting "the nazis" wasn't broad enough I guess.

[revo]

These other candidates are gonna have to come up with something yuuuge to top curing cancer!!


Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren is surging while Bernie 2.0 continues to peter out. For the first time in a major national poll, Warren has leapfrogged into 2nd while Bernie stumbles to just 12%, his worst showing of this campaign:

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination	Economist/YouGov	Biden 27, Sanders 12, [B]Warren 16[/B], Buttigieg 8, Harris 7, O'Rourke 3, Booker 2, Klobuchar 0, Yang 1, Castro 1, Bennet 1, Inslee 1, Ryan 0	Biden +11

More importantly, in Nevada, which is 2nd on the Dem primary calendar, Warren has hurdled into 2nd as Bernie slumps to just 13%:

Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus	Monmouth	Biden 36, Sanders 13, [B]Warren 19[/B], Harris 6, Buttigieg 7, O'Rourke 2, Yang 2, Booker 2, Klobuchar 1, Gabbard 1, Castro 1, Williamson 1, Gillibrand 0	Biden +17

The debates in 2 weeks will make it clearer if Warren is now the biggest challenger to Biden.

[B-Fly]

Warren, more than any other primary candidate I can remember, is truly earning her rise with policy chops/substance. It's getting harder and harder for me to envision a scenario where she's not my choice on NJ primary day.

[Bernie Brewer]

Just like the Dems in 2016 had a false sense of security with polls that showed Hillary comfortably ahead nationally, let Dopey believe he's doing much better than he really is.

Being a contrarian and all, isn’t this exactly like 2016? The Dems comfortably ahead and trump believes he is doing much better than the poles? And, as Paul Harvey once said, and now you know the rest of the story.

[B-Fly]

I don't understand the attacks on Biden's cancer comment. He's essentially saying that he's committed to investing in the R&D for a cure and making it a priority. It reminds me of JFK's commitment to put a man on the moon before the end of the 1960s. Its a statement of priority/commitment. Biden is far from my favorite candidate, but I'm not going to get mad at him for committing to a cure for cancer.

[revo]

Being a contrarian and all, isn’t this exactly like 2016? The Dems comfortably ahead and trump believes he is doing much better than the poles? And, as Paul Harvey once said, and now you know the rest of the story.

Don’t bring the Poles into this, my wife is Polish!

There’s still a sense that their big lead to date isn’t real. Quite a few have brought up this silent, stealthy faction of GOPers who are out to derail the polls. And the Dems certainly don’t feel like they have it in the bag, like they did in ‘16.

[Teenwolf]

I don't understand the attacks on Biden's cancer comment. He's essentially saying that he's committed to investing in the R&D for a cure and making it a priority. It reminds me of JFK's commitment to put a man on the moon before the end of the 1960s. Its a statement of priority/commitment. Biden is far from my favorite candidate, but I'm not going to get mad at him for committing to a cure for cancer.

Okay. So I guess since Medicare for All is too expensive, but curing fucking cancer is a totally realistic campaign promise, he's going to do great when asked "what do you say to the 30 million Americans who won't be able to access the cure for cancer?", right?

You all defend this as if its smart policy announcement? Warren and Bernie are gonna steamroll this loser. Watch.

Funny that nobody is touching the friendship bracelet post, which Axelrod, the actual Obama-Biden campaign strategist mocked it as being so stupid it had to be a joke.

I'm saying Biden is such a clown, he likely finishes outside the top 3. Just my prediction, if anybody wants an avatar bet over Biden losing the primary, get in line.

[B-Fly]

You honestly think that Elizabeth Warren is better on foreign policy than Bernie Sanders?

For you and other non-interventionists, she probably is not, because she's not as doctrinally committed to non-intervention as Sanders. But as we've discussed at greater length in the "Libertarianism and the balance between individual rights and anti-interventionism" thread and the "What's the right World Islam policy/strategy?" thread, I believe on a case by case basis that we do have either a legitimate strategic basis and/or a legitimate humanitarian basis to intervene. I think Warren is more of a case-by-case person who balances the pros and cons, albeit with a strong commitment to military intervention as a last resort. That's ultimately "better on foreign policy" from my perspective.

[Bernie Brewer]

Don’t bring the Poles into this, my wife is Polish!

There’s still a sense that their big lead to date isn’t real. Quite a few have brought up this silent, stealthy faction of GOPers who are out to derail the polls. And the Dems certainly don’t feel like they have it in the bag, like they did in ‘16.

Well, the good news is Trump likes those Poles very much. He said yesterday, that those Poles like Trump too and they’re buying “his” beautiful beautiful airplanes!

The good news for the Dems is they can’t get too comfy this round, at least not yet, because they have to cull the heard. Once the culling is complete, let’s hope it isn’t Hillary 2.0! Work Wisconsin and Florida and other swing states and take nothing for granted.

[Teenwolf]

For you and other non-interventionists, she probably is not, because she's not as doctrinally committed to non-intervention as Sanders. But as we've discussed at greater length in the "Libertarianism and the balance between individual rights and anti-interventionism" thread and the "What's the right World Islam policy/strategy?" thread, I believe on a case by case basis that we do have either a legitimate strategic basis and/or a legitimate humanitarian basis to intervene. I think Warren is more of a case-by-case person who balances the pros and cons, albeit with a strong commitment to military intervention as a last resort. That's ultimately "better on foreign policy" from my perspective.

Sanders is not "doctrinarily committed to non-intervention". He has supported the military use of drones in warfare in the past, among other things, which leads me to believe that he has the pragmatic situational stance that you ascribe to Warren.

But I also believe these instances where Warren has supported military funding or intervention are all problematic, more so than Bernie's support of the use of drones (despite drone warfare killing something like 12 innocents for every 1 successful target hit). I think they're both problematic, but Bernie less so than Warren.

[Steve 2.0]

Well, the good news is Trump likes those Poles very much. He said yesterday, that those Poles like Trump too and they’re buying “his” beautiful beautiful airplanes!

The good news for the Dems is they can’t get too comfy this round, at least not yet, because they have to cull the heard. Once the culling is complete, let’s hope it isn’t Hillary 2.0! Work Wisconsin and Florida and other swing states and take nothing for granted.

I'll run. My entire platform: Try to not be an asshole.