Election 2020

[Judge Jude]

weird day in NYC.

Mayor Bill de Blasio - who is polling roughly 26th of the 23-ish Democratic candidates for President - taking flak for campaigning in Iowa today to a couple of tipped cows, and even fewer farmers. So he skipped the annual Puerto Rican Day parade in NYC, which is a really big deal. (I think there are about as many Puerto Ricans living in NYC as there are in Puerto Rico. but Trumpsters need not panic - Puerto Ricans are American citizens.)

it's just weird. mayor of the biggest US city is a much bigger job than any Senate seat, which mostly is a lazy slot so they can abandon their spot for a while and it doesn't even matter.

his pitch in Iowa is about "white privilege," which confuses the almost Iowans who are white. they are polite because they are Midwestern, but they seem baffled.

[revo]

This poll is the Silver standard. It's interesting to look at the 1st choice/2nd choice breakdowns. At this point it already looks like a 4 candidate race, at least for Iowa. Harris is a distant 5th and no else has anything.

J

Yes, if Gillibrand/Booker/Klobuchar/Beto don’t gain any traction in the first debate, they’re toast. The rest are already DOA. In Beto’s case, it might be better if he ran for Texas Senate again.

[revo]

In that same Des Moines Register poll, respondents were asked, "What's most important for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses?" 65% said the winner had to have a 'strong chance of beating Trump' while 35% said the winner should 'share the same issues.'

[B-Fly]

In that same Des Moines Register poll, respondents were asked, "What's most important for the winner of the Iowa Caucuses?" 65% said the winner had to have a 'strong chance of beating Trump' while 35% said the winner should 'share the same issues.'

It's interesting, as this suggests that Biden's high polling is largely grounded in Biden's high polling.

[revo]

It's interesting, as this suggests that Biden's high polling is largely grounded in Biden's high polling.

Precisely!


Besides TeenWolf, there's another guy who doesn't believe the polls -- Donald Trump!

From the NY Times:
"After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his own campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/us/politics/trump-biden-iowa.html

[Kevin Seitzer]

Yes, if Gillibrand/Booker/Klobuchar/Beto don’t gain any traction in the first debate, they’re toast. The rest are already DOA. In Beto’s case, it might be better if he ran for Texas Senate again.

John Cornyn will be extremely tough to unseat. People hate Ted Cruz and the R beside his name still took him to a narrow victory over Beto.

Not that I think Beto has a great shot in the presidential primary. I'm just saying running for Texas Senate against Cornyn is probably even more of an uphill proposition than that.

[B-Fly]

John Cornyn will be extremely tough to unseat. People hate Ted Cruz and the R beside his name still took him to a narrow victory over Beto.

Not that I think Beto has a great shot in the presidential primary. I'm just saying running for Texas Senate against Cornyn is probably even more of an uphill proposition than that.

Would he have a shot at governor in 2022?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Would he have a shot at governor in 2022?

Very slim. Possibly a little better than his shot at upsetting Cornyn, but nowhere near the chance he had at beating Cruz. Cruz was an unusually weak and vulnerable candidate.

[Hornsby]

[Judge Jude]

I believe that's seen as a pretty reliable poll outfit.

[onejayhawk]

Very slim. Possibly a little better than his shot at upsetting Cornyn, but nowhere near the chance he had at beating Cruz. Cruz was an unusually weak and vulnerable candidate.

Cruz was a distracted candidate. He is known for the quality of his ground game and it was largely absent while the DNC poured a lot of advertising into the campaign. Cruz phoned one in and it only made things somewhat close.

Would he have a shot at governor in 2022?

Not if Abbott runs. There is no term limit.

Otherwise, he might get the nomination but his current campaign will be used against him.

J

[The Feral Slasher]

Cruz was a distracted candidate. He is known for the quality of his ground game and it was largely absent while the DNC poured a lot of advertising into the campaign. Cruz phoned one in and it only made things somewhat close.

J

I get so annoyed when people talk about themselves in the third person.

[revo]

Latest national poll from Quinnipiac:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Quinnipiac	Biden 53, Trump 40	[B]Biden +13[/B]
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	Quinnipiac	Sanders 51, Trump 42	Sanders +9
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	Quinnipiac	Warren 49, Trump 42	Warren +7
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	Quinnipiac	Harris 49, Trump 41	Harris +8
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	Quinnipiac	Buttigieg 47, Trump 42	Buttigieg +5
General Election: Trump vs. Booker	Quinnipiac	Booker 47, Trump 42	Booker +5

Jeez, even Corey Booker is opening a can of whoopass on Dopey!

[frae]

When you use one poll to tell the story you want it is just spinning or lying. I was an insane debate last night on twitter with Trump backers over the Q poll and them comparing it to 538’s probability model. I had one guy telling me 538 said Clinton would win the popular vote 71-29 (he didn't understand a probability of an electoral college win vs the popular vote projection) so this Q poll is crap. And while the lack of polling makes this data point not a strong one it isn’t necessarily crap. I don’t expect anyone to win the popular vote by 7 plus points.

Then on the left Sanders speech writer cherry picks numbers in the Q poll as opposed to the aggregate on RCP.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1138850966932021248?s=21

Polls don’t give guarantees but if you ignore patterns and cherry pick data that’s being dishonest too.

The hatred of polls and models still baffles me, they are useful tools and while they got the electoral college wrong in 2016 they nailed the popular vote and a 7/10 probability of winning isn’t a guaranteed win it is just giving you data.


Edit: Here is the RCP polls if you don't want to read the tweets...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

And like Trump who likes to tout any approval poll that gets him near 50% he ignores the averages...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

One poll can never stand on its own as clearly right and anytime that data gets cherry picked or totally ignored it drives me crazy. All polls and the way they are conducted and their track records will tell us how to look at that, but aggregate polls are a better way to see real movement.

[revo]

And like Trump who likes to tout any approval poll that gets him near 50% he ignores the averages...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

It's actually great that he does this. He's not seeing the forest through the trees. If he wants to think he's at 50% because one highly-skewed poll says so, more power to him. If he wants to reject his internal polling which shows him getting battered because it's not what he wants to see, more power to him.

Just like the Dems in 2016 had a false sense of security with polls that showed Hillary comfortably ahead nationally, let Dopey believe he's doing much better than he really is.