Election 2020

[DMT]

I'm not seeing the utility in backing anyone other than your top choice in the primary.

[umjewman]

LOL. So you totally flipped the script there at the end. Sounds like you're as torn as I am about the right way to choose whom to back.

I won't lie, Ted Cruz is pretty tempting...

[frae]

We will be well into primary season by the time I vote in PA so at that point we should be down to 1,2, or maybe 3 people still running.

I like Warren on policy, but as much as I want to wave a magic wand and get people in the middle and to the right to like her a northeast liberal policy wonk is maybe a hard sell.

Harris isn't as well known as Warren and there is probably a higher ceiling on her still so I still hold out hope she can break through.

Mayor Pete is probably the candidate most likely to fit midwest voters, the concern will be his African American support. I think good showings in Iowa and NH could give him a chance to get a real look in SC and a balanced ticket (Abrams?) could help motivate that voting group.

I voted for Bernie in the primary in 2016 as a I want to move my party to the left vote, Hillary was going to win PA, but this time I don't see a lot of scenarios where I vote for Bernie. This election is too important and while I'd love to say the country is ready for some of Bernies ideas they aren't and he isn't a Democrat and that bothers me.

Biden, mile wide and an inch deep is my guess. If he is the nominee you are damn right I am voting for him, but to me these polls don't convince me and I just don't know I want to put up an old white man against Trump.

Beto and Booker haven't gained traction but both would be fine with me.

So by the time PA votes if we are down to 2 - 3 candidates yes I will look at who can beat Trump and by then the polls will have a little more validity.

[frae]

Nate Silver with an interesting article on candidates "floors"...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-has-the-highest-floor-and-its-pretty-damn-low/

[Teenwolf]

After a day or two of getting slammed with criticism for supporting the Hyde amendment, Joe Biden flip-flopped and changed his stance. It will still hurt him going forward. He probably gets shielded from Bernie and Warren in the 1st debate, hopefully Tulsi is on his debate stage to attack him.

I saw this article that I found interesting regarding the Hyde amendment:

The Hyde Amendment passed in 1977 as part of an appropriations bill, and, while it was only in effect as long as that budget lasted, has appeared in subsequent appropriations bills for decades. Even the Affordable Care Act contains a complicated provision that echoes Hyde. And while Biden would've been the only congressmember around to okay the original amendment, Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), as well as Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), voted for a 2018 appropriations bill that contained similar language.

Of the current and former congressmembers running for president, only Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) voted down the 2018 bill. Still, Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, Warren, and others have all joined his call to repeal Hyde.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/845701/2020-democrats-are-grilling-biden-over-hyde-amendment-voted

In other news, Tulsi is taking criticism for private fundraisers with wall street exec's. It's interesting, some of her supporters are legitimately upset about it, some deny it has any merit. I'm not a fan of how it played out, but it's probably more of an organizational issue rather than a revelation about her policy goals. I think, anyway, that she would have been better off to have more transparency.

An argument that I heard which B-Fly would probably like, is that in some ways, Warren's policy proposals are more socialistic than Bernie, yet because she identifies as a capitalist reformer, as opposed to Bernie identifying as a Social Democrat, the message is heard differently, and the reforms would be less likely to be viewed as a Socialist takeover by mush-brain voters... but Warren's plan to have the government produce generic drugs is the #1 move capitalists fear, seizing the means of production. I wonder how coverage of issues like this would be handled in the general election. I prefer Bernie's activist vision to the policy wonk style of Warren's campaign, and I believe Bernie would lead a populist uprising to make change happen, whereas I'm not sure Warren would do it. She wasn't even willing to commit to killing the filibuster, and you think she's going to round up 60 votes for these far left policies? I prefer Bernie's brick through the window approach. Mobilize 3.5% of the population to protest and the pressure can create big changes. Bernie is the only one that can create that.

[Teenwolf]

Elizabeth Warren at California Democratic convention, obviously regarding Joe Biden... cannot wait for him to get dismantled:

"Some Democrats believe the only changes we can get are tweaks and nudges. If they dream at all, they dream small. Some say if we all just calm down, the Republicans will come to their senses. But our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over."

If the DNC ever allowed Biden, Bernie, and Liz on the same debate stage, it would be a bloodbath... I guess by the 3rd or 4th debates we could see the field whittled down to one stage, but I would bet money Biden is protected from those 2 in the first and probably 2nd debates. Would love to be proven wrong.

[onejayhawk]

Elizabeth Warren at California Democratic convention, obviously regarding Joe Biden... cannot wait for him to get dismantled:

"Some Democrats believe the only changes we can get are tweaks and nudges. If they dream at all, they dream small. Some say if we all just calm down, the Republicans will come to their senses. But our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over."

If the DNC ever allowed Biden, Bernie, and Liz on the same debate stage, it would be a bloodbath... I guess by the 3rd or 4th debates we could see the field whittled down to one stage, but I would bet money Biden is protected from those 2 in the first and probably 2nd debates. Would love to be proven wrong.

The scary thing is that you just read Warren's war cry. Bernie would liven things a little but Biden vs Warren could cure insomnia.

J

[Teenwolf]

From endless wars that strain military families to trade policies that crush our middle class, Washington’s foreign policy today serves the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of everyone else.


For too long, our economic policies have left workers with the short end of the stick. We need to strengthen labor standards – and then fight to enforce them. That’s why Elizabeth will oppose Trump’s new “NAFTA 2.0” unless he produces a better deal for America’s working families. It’s time to stop prioritizing corporate profits over American paychecks.


A strong military should act as a deterrent so that most of the time, we won’t have to use it. We must continue to be vigilant about the threat of terrorism, but it’s time to bring our troops home – and make sure they get support and benefits they’ve earned.


We should also leverage all the tools of our national power, not just our military might. That means cutting our bloated defense budget and ending the stranglehold of defense contractors on our military policy. It means reinvesting in diplomacy and standing with our allies to advance our shared interests. It means new solutions to new global challenges, from cybersecurity to the existential threat posed by climate change.


Our strength abroad is generated here at home. Policies that undermine working families in this country also erode our strength in the world. It’s time for a foreign policy that works for all Americans, not just wealthy elites.

https://elizabethwarren.com/issues/#...policy-for-all

You honestly think that Elizabeth Warren is better on foreign policy than Bernie Sanders?

While Bernie was speaking against and voting against Trump's escalation against Iran in 2017, every other candidate supported that dangerous escalation, against a country that's followed the guidelines of the peace deal that the US walked away from. It's such BS blatant warmongering. Warren and the rest supported it, Bernie didn't.

So that's 2 issues that Warren has spoken about without following through on (women's choice, foreign policy). Seems like flowery words are worth a lot less than candidate's records.

Intelligent discussion found in the video.

[revo]

Latest Dem Iowa Poll: Hey TW, what's going on with Bernie?

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus	DM Register/CNN	Biden 24, Sanders 16, Buttigieg 14, Warren 15, Harris 7, O'Rourke 2, Booker 1, Klobuchar 2, Delaney 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Inslee 1, Bennet 1	Biden +8

Same exact poll 3 months ago had Biden 27%, but Bernie right on his heels with 25%. Mayor Pete and Warren are surging at Bernie's expense, it seems, as voters who want someone besides Biden are looking elsewhere. What's going on?

[Teenwolf]

More on the difference between Warren and Sanders on military intervention.

Warren supported sanctions against Venezuela, Bernie fought against those sanctions.

Warren supported the US position on Israel bombing Palestine in 2014. Bernie has consistently spoken out against Netanyahu's attacks on Palestine.

Warren's language regarding "green militarism" is extremely worrisome, as the video describes.

By the way, I chose 2 Michael Brooks videos because he's the best on international relations. I apologize for the length, but he's much smarter than I am at articulating these foreign policy issues, so I leave the bulk of the work to him.

[Teenwolf]

Latest Dem Iowa Poll: Hey TW, what's going on with Bernie?

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus	DM Register/CNN	Biden 24, Sanders 16, Buttigieg 14, Warren 15, Harris 7, O'Rourke 2, Booker 1, Klobuchar 2, Delaney 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Inslee 1, Bennet 1	Biden +8

Same exact poll 3 months ago had Biden 27%, but Bernie right on his heels with 25%. Mayor Pete and Warren are surging at Bernie's expense, it seems, as voters who want someone besides Biden are looking elsewhere. What's going on?

Probably voters who think Warren and others better represent their positions, but they're too busy following polling and nonsense to understand what candidate's positions are yet. Should become clearer after debates.

Your obsession with polling has blinded you to reality. Nothing to say about Biden's horrendous week? Stay warm and cozy in that bubble.

[Sour Masher]

It seems both Biden and Sanders are falling down toward the here-to-fore also rans and Warren and Mayer Pete are rising to make this a foursome at the top right now. I worry about electability issues for all four, but it really will come down to how skillfully each addresses those issues, including the prejudices among certain voters against electing the oldest candidates ever, or a Jewish candidate, or a gay candidate, or a too young/inexperienced candidate, or a woman. Barack Obama (a black man with a muslin name) proved with his first election that with the proper campaign, skill, charisma, and message, anyone can overcome such prejudices to win. Which of these candidates will make the right choices to do the same? Or will in be a dark horse outside of this foursome?

One thing that makes me feel good about this election vs the last one is this is a deep field and it won't be a cake-walk for any of them. Whoever emerges will have been tested much more than HRC was last time. Whoever it is should be more well-prepared to face Trump.

[revo]

Probably voters who think Warren and others better represent their positions, but they're too busy following polling and nonsense to understand what candidate's positions are yet. Should become clearer after debates.

Your obsession with polling has blinded you to reality. Nothing to say about Biden's horrendous week? Stay warm and cozy in that bubble.

Your obsession with all things anti-Biden is blinding you to the reality that Sanders' story is old and haggard and his bandwagon is starting to realize Sanders 2.0 is petering out far quicker than Sanders 1.0 did.

As far as Biden's bad week, who cares? As long as he's the dominating front-runner, he's my guy. Maybe Warren or Harris or another darkhorse emerge after the debates, but as of now, as long as Biden is enjoying a double-digit lead over Trump in those key battleground states, he's the man. You still don't seem to understand that I have no dog in this fight. I'm a total bandwagon jumper. Whoever is polling the best vs. Trump is my guy/gal.

You can concentrate on the issues all you'd like, but besides a "national emergency," nothing is getting through a GOP-led Senate. So first things first, let's find the person who is best positioned to oust the madman from office. If that's Sanders, great (although I seriously doubt that). If it's Mayor Pete, great! If that's Harris or Beto or Warren or whomever, great, let's all get behind him or her in order to avoid a repeat from 2016, instead of getting all uppity and taking your ball and going home (like Sanders supporters did in '16)

[Judge Jude]

finally got through Time mag's new Bernie Sanders cover story titled: "Building a Better Bernie: On the Road with a Rebooted Sanders Campaign"

it's really long - and kinda weird.

it takes about 50 paragraphs to get to: "After a few of these town halls, Sanders' own stoicism begins to make more sense. He begins to seem almost a secular priest: People come to him with stories of despair, and he lifts their pain up into the air, to a place where it is no longer personal but something civic. He gives them the language and information to know it isn't their fault. His speeches are like that hug in 'Good Will Hunting': It's not your fault; it's not your fault. The system did this. Big corporations did this. A bought-and-paid-for government did this."

lots of details on the challenges of his first 20 years or so (trivia: iirc, Bernie attended the same HS in Brooklyn as the fathers of Revo and B-Fly as well as Judge Jude). also, it turns out he's kinda gruff and impatient and doesn't like to talk about himself. who knew?

here's a gem: "Biden vs. Sanders is a perfect experiment - tactile vs sterile, too much rubbing vs. rubbing people the wrong way."

"those years of shouting, feeling unheard, being unheard, left scars. And belated validation can rewrite, or reinforce, habits bred by marginalization.... What will it be for Sanders? Can he seize upon the moment he created?"

I'll just throw one last one out there: "Sanders seems to believe the public doesn't have a right to know him more intimately - even though there is abundant evidence that the essential character traits of our Presidents eventually shape all our lives: Bill Clinton's appetites; George W. Bush's certitude; Barack Obama's instinct to hire bankers; Donald Trump's narcissism."

[onejayhawk]

Latest Dem Iowa Poll: Hey TW, what's going on with Bernie?

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus	DM Register/CNN	Biden 24, Sanders 16, Buttigieg 14, Warren 15, Harris 7, O'Rourke 2, Booker 1, Klobuchar 2, Delaney 1, Castro 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Inslee 1, Bennet 1	Biden +8

Same exact poll 3 months ago had Biden 27%, but Bernie right on his heels with 25%. Mayor Pete and Warren are surging at Bernie's expense, it seems, as voters who want someone besides Biden are looking elsewhere. What's going on?

This poll is the Silver standard. It's interesting to look at the 1st choice/2nd choice breakdowns. At this point it already looks like a 4 candidate race, at least for Iowa. Harris is a distant 5th and no else has anything.

J