Democratic Socialist Takeover

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, it's Sanders vs. Trump in a petri dish. I hadn't heard about Florida's shift to the right. I believe the toxic algae situation will help swing things left, and I really hope Gillum can capitalize on all the free advertising from his upset win to get his platform out there.

As a former Floridian who still visits family there, and just experienced the dreaded toxic algae on my recent trip, I would not hold my breath...unless you are around the toxic algae. It's nuts how crazy that state has become. When I lived there it was purple, leaning red. But now, it is all red. I mean, they elected Rick Scott twice there, which says a lot. And TW, if you really an example of the worst gun laws in the country, read up on Forida's insane version of stand your ground. It started bad, and it has gotten worse. Basically, not only can you shoot just about anyone you claim is a threat without fear of prosecution, the burden of proof on whether the threat was real is now on the murdered victm, even when there is video evidence f cld blooded murder of an unarmed person. Here is just the first article a quick search brings up of many, many articles that explains just how awful that law is. Knowing your stance on this, I think your head will explode when you read into just how bad it is (worst in the country)--https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...ton-ncna894356. Basically, if you make a white person (sometimes non-white people too, but mostly white people) scared for any reason down there, said scared person gets to shoot you for being unarmed and scary. Think you will get an ass whooping after talking crap to someone? No worries, if he comes at you just keep shooting the unarmed person until he is dead, on camera. You stood your ground and murdered someone who might have given you a black eye that you may have deserved to get! Yay for you!

The algae deal won't be pinned on global warming for folks down there. While that is certainly part of it, there is a narrative that seems to have some truth that all the pollution of lake Okeechobee, and the opening up of that every year to the ocean is a big part of the problem. Unless they can pin that pollution and mismanagement on the Repubs, it won't have any traction, and while it is a viable strategy, the Republican political machines down there have been really effective at spin in recent years, and folks seem eager to embrace it. It would be a welcome change if Floridians have grown weary and wary of that way of running the state and swing left, but I think a moderate would have had a better shot down there based on history.

My wife and I want to move back down there now that we have two young children, to be closer to family. But it is hard to commit to given how crazy that state has become, not to mention it is hot as the devil's balls all the time down there.

[B-Fly]

On the bright side, Floridians collectively understand as well as any state's residents the overall quality and efficiency of the Medicare program (as distinguished from the much more troubled Medicaid program), from both the patient and the provider perspective. Without seeing any Florida-based polling on the issue, I suspect health coverage and care is a top priority for voters and Medicare-for-all would play well.

[Sour Masher]

On the bright side, Floridians collectively understand as well as any state's residents the overall quality and efficiency of the Medicare program (as distinguished from the much more troubled Medicaid program), from both the patient and the provider perspective. Without seeing any Florida-based polling on the issue, I suspect health coverage and care is a top priority for voters and Medicare-for-all would play well.

Yeah, mostly because the number of elderly voters in the state is high, so that is an area they care about. So, yeah, there are issues a progressive can gain traction on, but man, there are so many things down there that make me scratch my head.

I'm in a goading mood, and the many stand your ground cases that let people shoot other unarmed people without prosecution (there is even at least one case I know of a guy who has killed two people in two separate cases without prosecution under this law) got me thinking of one of the cases that really brought this to national attention--the Trayvon Martin case. And I wanted to put out there that not only did he kill an unarmed kid, he tried to sell the gun he did the deed with three times, and seems to finally have gotten over 100k for it back in 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/19/u...-high-bid.html. And despite all the attention that case got, that law in Florida has actually gotten worse, not better.

[Sour Masher]

Its going too be a really interesting test case. As TW says, this really is Sanders vs Trump in Florida. Very interesting to see how it shakes out.

[The Feral Slasher]

Its going too be a really interesting test case. As TW says, this really is Sanders vs Trump in Florida. Very interesting to see how it shakes out.

2 years too late....or perhaps 2 years early

[Sour Masher]

2 years too late....or perhaps 2 years early

For me, I've always been nervous about the electability of Sanders, in part because of my feelings of Florida not being receptive to his message, and how important I think Florida would be in a progressive candidate winning nationally. If Gillum, running on the platform he is running on, beats DeSantis, who has all but changed his name to Trump, it really changes my view of the electability of a progressive presidential candidate. If a progressive can win Florida, that is a clear sign of a significant sea change imo.

Not to mention, I think Gillum would be a better governor than DeSantis, and may influence my family moving back to Florida (to be closer to grandparents/extended family for our kids). A Trump POTUS and Trump wannabe governor would be too much to stomach.

[Judge Jude]

I think it's good for the country to have that Florida showdown.

that said, I am sympathetic to those who live there or who are considering living there soon.

no matter who wins, I wonder if FL will have an unusually large number of exiting residents - and entering ones.

[Sour Masher]

I think it's good for the country to have that Florida showdown.

that said, I am sympathetic to those who live there or who are considering living there soon.

no matter who wins, I wonder if FL will have an unusually large number of exiting residents - and entering ones.

It is possible, if Gillum wins--we might get an influx of folks looking to get a piece of his promises, although I suspect they may end up disappointed on the number of those promises he'd actually be able to deliver on. I'm not sure a whole lot would change from Scott to mini-Trump, so that would be a status quo win, so I wouldn't expect much or any movement.

My politics lean more centrist on fiscal issues, and I lean away from socialization of everything, as I don't generally think throwing more money at government is always the best solution for many of our problems (that is why I really liked Warren's corporate accountability plan)--healthcare being the exception, because I think it should be a basic universal thing society provides its people, and just about every other industrial nation has proven it is not only ethical and right for the individuals helped by it, it is generally more cost effective and better for the society as a whole. So, personally, I think Gillum may be a bit pie in the sky with some of his platform. But I also think he'd address safety concerns I have about moving back.

Seriously, that stand your ground law, in its current, recently updated form, is nuts. It ties back to that Truth vs truth convo we were having. The current law is written so that the legal ramifications of a shooting is based on the subjective feelings of the shooter, rather than the objective facts of the situation. There have been cases, at least one caught on video, where a shooter is cleared because he believed deadly force was necessary to not only prevent imminent death or great harm, but simply to stop the commission of a forcible felony (and "forcible felonies" apparently include an unarmed father shoving you in the chest during an argument, because you are yelling at his girlfriend and young children, who are in the car and watch you get murdered, legally). The specific cases I've seen make it clear it is basically a licence to kill in way more circumstances than is appropriate, and by and large it escalates many situations to the point of an unarmed person dying needlessly. Too many people are becoming wanna be cops down there, and they don't have the training or the temperament needed for their self-appointed tasks. I have two biracial boys and the idea that one of them could get shot, legally, because they grow up and scare someone or push someone that confronts them aggressively...it is only one concern I have about current Florida policies/laws/politics, but it is a big one.

Despite not being all in on all of Gillum's policies, the choice in this election in Florida is super clear to me. 1. you pick a guy who you may or may not think is too progressive and/or is likely over-promising on what he can actually accomplish, but who has a sincere desire to help the people of Florida and address specific Florida issues, many of which have gotten worse under Scott. 2. you pick the guy who is SWFing Trump (old movie reference), who has been on Fox over 100 times getting national face time, but who hardly ever seems to give two rat asses about specific Florida issues, and would rather just parrot Trump national talking points and let everyone know he will just keep doing what has been done under Scott, whether it worked or not. Oh, and like Trump, he seems keen on using racist dog whistling to bring out the white nationalist vote, so there is that. But Trump is popular in Florida, so we'll see how it plays out.

[Teenwolf]

For me, I've always been nervous about the electability of Sanders, in part because of my feelings of Florida not being receptive to his message, and how important I think Florida would be in a progressive candidate winning nationally. If Gillum, running on the platform he is running on, beats DeSantis, who has all but changed his name to Trump, it really changes my view of the electability of a progressive presidential candidate. If a progressive can win Florida, that is a clear sign of a significant sea change imo.

Not to mention, I think Gillum would be a better governor than DeSantis, and may influence my family moving back to Florida (to be closer to grandparents/extended family for our kids). A Trump POTUS and Trump wannabe governor would be too much to stomach.

Curious if you've followed the West Virginia race between Richard Ojeda (D) and Carol Miller (R)? Ojeda is running a populist far left campaign and taken a district Trump won by 44 pts down to a toss-up. Ojeda is a real badass, and his ads have been devastating. Highly enjoyable. Anybody hear about him?

[Sour Masher]

Curious if you've followed the West Virginia race between Richard Ojeda (D) and Carol Miller (R)? Ojeda is running a populist far left campaign and taken a district Trump won by 44 pts down to a toss-up. Ojeda is a real badass, and his ads have been devastating. Highly enjoyable. Anybody hear about him?

I have not kept up with that race. I'd be pleasantly surprised if a far left dem took WV. More like shocked, really. I'm gonna start paying attention to it.

[Judge Jude]

Ojeda? he IS interesting

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/03/polit...ess/index.html

he backed Sanders over Hillary in 2016, then says he voted for Trump for President.

could be an interesting needle to thread in a far-right state

[Sour Masher]

Ojeda? he IS interesting

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/03/polit...ess/index.html

he backed Sanders over Hillary in 2016, then says he voted for Trump for President.

could be an interesting needle to thread in a far-right state

I just watched his reasoning for voting for Trump on CNN. It is a 1 minute reminder of how poorly HRC campaigned in that area on a key and immediate economic issue for many in the area--getting high paying jobs back now, not way down the road with theoretical training. A Dem needs to provide both long term and short term solutions on this issue. I hope whoever runs in 2020 will have learned this lesson.

[Teenwolf]

Ojeda? he IS interesting

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/03/polit...ess/index.html

he backed Sanders over Hillary in 2016, then says he voted for Trump for President.

could be an interesting needle to thread in a far-right state

Here's a video that includes 4 Ojeda TV ads. (Sorry to any right wingers for posting a TYT clip... haha) Ojeda is a savage, and these ads are incredible... They don't include the ads that focus on him being attacked and nearly killed on the campaign, but those ones are powerful too.

Clinton lost the district by 49 pts (not surprising given her rhetoric on coal), and Ojeda is up 5 pts in polling. 54 pt swing.

[nots]

What poll has Ojeda up 5? Last two polls on 538.com have Miller up

[Teenwolf]

What poll has Ojeda up 5? Last two polls on 538.com have Miller up

Not sure, heard it referenced in another video. Either way, 50 pt swing to toss-up rating is pretty huge, and you'd have to think that the populist messaging Ojeda relies on will have the same poll-breaking effect that Trump had, which found their reliance on "likely voters" was way off...

I could still be proven wrong. Fun race to watch however it ends, should be a tight race.