Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion

[Hornsby]

And when is welfare not welfare? When it's handed out to people that by and large voted for you!

The U.S. Agriculture Department announced Tuesday a $12 billion package of emergency aid for farmers caught in the midst of President Trump’s escalating trade war the latest sign that growing tensions between the United States and other countries will not end soon.

Trump ordered Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue to prepare a range of options several months ago, amid complaints from farmers that their products faced retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries. The new package of government assistance funds announced Tuesday and will go into effect in September.

The aid package will target soybean farmers, dairy farmers, and pork producers, among others. White House officials hope it will temporarily quiet some of the unease from farm groups, but the new plan could revive debates about taxpayer-funded bailouts and the degree to which Trump’s trade strategy is leading to unforeseen costs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/white-house-readies-plan-for-12-billion-in-emergency-aid-to-farmers-caught-in-trumps-escalating-trade-war/2018/07/24/7bec9af4-8f4d-11e8-b769-e3fff17f0689_story.html?utm_term=.4f9824ac8619

[Mithrandir]

And when is welfare not welfare? When it's handed out to people that by and large voted for you!



https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.4f9824ac8619

But but but it's different than those welfare queens who work 16 hour days just to survive!! and need a little help...

[revo]

And when is welfare not welfare? When it's handed out to people that by and large voted for you!



https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.4f9824ac8619

This is starting to get ridiculous. Dumb Donald is doing exactly what the Chinese are, handing out subsidies to businesses, and using taxpayer dollars to mend a debacle of his own doing. 60% of these taxpayers, by the way, didn't vote for him. And oh, by using the CCC law, he circumvented Congress voting on it.

[revo]

This is what happens when companies do the Dirty Dance with Donald:


"Tariffs are the greatest!" President Donald Trump said on Twitter Tuesday morning. Whirlpool used to agree.
In January, when Trump announced tariffs on imported washing machines, CEO Marc Bitzer told analysts, "This is, without any doubt, a positive catalyst for Whirlpool."

But the Trump administration didn't stop there. It imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, sending raw material prices skyrocketing. That has raised costs for Whirlpool by $350 million and squeezed its profit margins. Steel prices in the United States are 60% higher than the rest of the world, Bitzer told analysts on Tuesday.

Now Whirlpool is backtracking on its protectionist cheerleading. The company's reversal demonstrates the unintended consequences tariffs have sowed on manufacturers and their carefully-planned supply chains.

The company on Monday slashed its profit outlook for 2018 in part because of a "very challenging cost environment." Whirlpool's (WHR) stock tanked 14% on Tuesday after it missed Wall Street's expectations.

"The global steel costs have risen substantially, and in particular, in the US, they have reached unexplainable levels," Bitzer told analysts. "Uncertainty" around additional tariffs and global trade has disrupted Whirlpool's supply chain and heightened pricing pressure.

Whirlpool and rivals, such as LG and Samsung, have increased prices on washing machines since the tariffs went into effect. That led some people to pass up a new purchase. Washing machine prices in June were up close to 20% from a year prior, according to the Labor Department.

[cardboardbox]

This is starting to get ridiculous. Dumb Donald is doing exactly what the Chinese are, handing out subsidies to businesses, and using taxpayer dollars to mend a debacle of his own doing. 60% of these taxpayers, by the way, didn't vote for him. And oh, by using the CCC law, he circumvented Congress voting on it.

I dont like it. It reminds me a lot of the "Housing for everyone!" scheme where I pay rent for people making up to 125k.

[cardboardbox]

Quite a few repub senators grumbling about this but all too afraid to vote on ending the tariffs except those who are out the door anyway. And it would be tough to pass anything because I think Schumer would vote no on ending the tariffs.

[revo]

Trump meeting with EU Chief Juncker momentarily. My guess is there won't be any solution because Trump sees a problem on trade that isn't really there; he totally misunderstands the whole situation. Plus, the negotiations are likely to go, "well, if the US removes tariffs we'll remove our retaliatory tariffs." But Trump believes that will still leave us in the soup. I wouldn't expect much to come out of this, but stranger things have happened.

[cardboardbox]

Trump meeting with EU Chief Juncker momentarily. My guess is there won't be any solution because Trump sees a problem on trade that isn't really there; he totally misunderstands the whole situation. Plus, the negotiations are likely to go, "well, if the US removes tariffs we'll remove our retaliatory tariffs." But Trump believes that will still leave us in the soup. I wouldn't expect much to come out of this, but stranger things have happened.

I bet a lot of people misunderstand the whole situation. Do you feel you understand it completely?

I hope Trump got my memo about getting a small concession out of the EU and ending the trade war.

[revo]

I bet a lot of people misunderstand the whole situation. Do you feel you understand it completely?

I hope Trump got my memo about getting a small concession out of the EU and ending the trade war.

Whole situation, no, but I trust virtually every economist, former Secretaries of Commerce, and heads of trade both here and abroad on the subject far more than an amateur like Trump. I've read up on the history of trade disputes and in virtually every case, tariffs were a major mistake. I've also read plenty on the subject since he began this whole boondoggle. But I'm no economist.

His misunderstanding is in the "deficit" of trade. For example, if we import $1Bn from China yet export only $500Mn, he believes there's an net deficit of $500Mn. But the reality is that businesses chose to import from China and actually received $1Bn worth of goods, which they then re-sell at presumably a large markup.

He also misunderstands the tariffs themselves. Many heads of trade look at "cumulative tariff dollars" and not just the percentages. For example, the US has tariffs on imported cars of 2.5%. China had a tariff on cars of 25%, which they lowered to 15%. But taken in cumulative dollars, according to these trade heads, the US actually tariffs cars far more than China does because far more are sold here.

He also misunderstands that you should not tariff a "finished product." Washing Machines are a perfect example. He placed a tariff on them, but then they also got hit with a tariff increase with aluminum and steel, further raising prices. As such, prices to consumers have soared 20% since January.

He also misunderstands that forcing businesses to buy American also creates havoc -- through bogged-down supply as well as these businesses taking advantage of escalated prices elsewhere (i.e. Steel).

He also misunderstands that companies have tightly-crafted supply chains and in many cases, razor-thin margins, and any escalation of prices along the supply chain could lead to either companies eating the cost and losing profit; eating the cost and laying off employees; or finding replacements outside of their supply chain (i.e. Harley-Davidson).

He also misunderstood that countries would just bow down to his tariffs, and his Trade chief Peter Navarro is actually on record saying back in March that the Administration "didn't expect" countries to retaliate.

[revo]

And looks like there's been a deal made with the EU on industrial products and other issues. EU agrees to buy more soybeans. Not sure if any tariffs have actually been lifted, though.

[Hornsby]

Sixteen of the eighteen states that produce 96% of the soybeans grown in the US voted for...Donald Trump in the 2016 election.

Many products have suddenly become more expensive. The additional taxes will ripple through supply chains, forcing companies in both countries to decide whether to take a financial hit themselves or pass it along to consumers. If demand drops, jobs will be in jeopardy.

The US industries facing tariffs include cotton, dairy, auto and soybeans — the United States' top agricultural export to China in 2017. Many of those industries have their roots in the Midwest and southern United States, areas that helped propel President Donald Trump to victory in 2016 on the promise of putting America first.

John Heisdorffer, a soybean grower from Iowa and president of the American Soybean Association, said the group had appealed to the Trump administration to find other solutions to addressing trade issues with China.

"Soybeans are the top agriculture export for the United States, and China is the top market for purchasing those exports," Heisdorffer said in a statement. "The math is simple. You tax soybean exports at 25-percent, and you have serious damage to U.S. farmers."

The group's lobbying efforts have included a social media campaign in which "individual soybean farmers who will be directly affected by the trade conflict attached their photographs to statements appealing directly to the President and his advisors," the group said.

There are 18 states that grow about 96% of the US's soybeans, according to government statistics. All but two of them, Illinois and Minnesota, went for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Trump maintains the tariffs will pressure China to address trade complaints from the US, including intellectual property theft.

Retaliatory measures by China also include taxes on imports of a variety of US dairy products. It comes at a time when the US dairy industry was already bracing for new tariffs on cheese exported to Mexico. The cheese tariffs were put in place in response to an earlier tariff move by the Trump administration.

Jaime Castaneda, senior vice president of the US Dairy Export Council, said the retaliatory tariffs have been a "one-two punch" that have left the industry "reeling."

"You have to put all of this into context," Castaneda said in an email. "Producers have had 3 years of low prices and this fall was looking promising. We were going to get back to profitable margins for the first time in years. All that is gone now."

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/07/news/economy/trade-china-tariffs-impact/index.html

[revo]

Inflation is obviously inevitable when you place tariffs on goods, as we can't expect companies to just eat the cost, so therefore, tariffs are a tax on consumers. Except you don't see it that way if you're Donald Trump!


"The cost of having fun is going to get a lot less fun.

The price of snowmobiles, RVs and even beer are the latest victims of the global trade war.

The makers of Polaris snowmobiles, Winnebago RVs and Sam Adams beer each said they will be forced to hike prices because of recently increased tariffs placed on European aluminum and steel have increased their commodity costs.

Boston Beer, the maker of Sam Adams brews, facing “significantly higher” freight and commodity costs, jacked prices as much as 2 percent, company brass said Thursday on a call with analysts. Investors also got burned as shares plunged 15 percent since Koch broke the news.

Meanwhile, in Medina, Minn., Polaris said the increased tariffs means $40 million in added costs. The company, which makes Indian motorcycles and off-road vehicles, said last week price increases will offset some of the burn.

“We see the multifaceted influences of the escalating and protracted trade war as the biggest risk to Polaris and the economy,” Chief Executive Scott Wine said.

“It’s fair to say that our focus on this issue and its attendant financial impact have increased dramatically in the past three months,” he added. Polaris shares fell 13 percent over three days.

Last week, Coca-Cola and General Motors said they were being forced to raise prices in the wake of tariff-induced commodity price increases. “Clearly, it’s disruptive for us. … It’s disruptive for our customers.” Coca-Cola Chief Executive James Quincey told analysts last week.

And while GM shied away from explicitly calling out tariffs, it slashed its profit forecast in response to rising commodity prices."

https://nypost.com/2018/07/30/snowmobiles-beer-among-latest-victims-of-global-trade-war/

"Caterpillar Inc. announced Monday that it will raise prices for its products to offset the costs of President Trump’s recently imposed tariffs.

In a press release, the construction manufacturing giant said that the tariffs on aluminum and steel imports announced by the Trump administration are expected to add around $100 million to $200 million in extra material costs."

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/international-taxes/399476-caterpillar-to-raise-prices-due-to-trump-tariffs-on

[Teenwolf]

What do you guys think of this Koch brothers funded study that ended up estimating the cost of Medicare for all to SAVE $2 trillion over a decade? But how are those damned idiotic socialists gonna pay for all that cheaper health care, amirite? Koch bros. estimates surely paint it in the worst light possible, and even they couldn't tweak it enough to show an increased cost.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare...t-for-medicare

[chancellor]

What do you guys think of this Koch brothers funded study that ended up estimating the cost of Medicare for all to SAVE $2 trillion over a decade? But how are those damned idiotic socialists gonna pay for all that cheaper health care, amirite? Koch bros. estimates surely paint it in the worst light possible, and even they couldn't tweak it enough to show an increased cost.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare...t-for-medicare

LOL...I sure hope Bernie keeps running with it, as it's living proof my sig is correct. Let's summarize Charles Blohaus' conclusions:

1. M4A would increase federal budget commitments by approximately $32.6 trillion during its first 10 years of full implementation (2022–2031), assuming enactment in 2018.
2. Doubling all currently projected federal individual and corporate income tax collections would be insufficient to finance the added federal costs of the plan
3. It is likely that the actual cost of M4A would be substantially greater than these estimates, which assume significant administrative and drug cost savings under the plan, and also assume that healthcare providers operating under M4A will be reimbursed at rates more than 40 percent lower than those currently paid by private health insurance.

Blohaus' numbers are about 7% higher than Kenneth Thorpe (Emory University, former Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services in the Clinton administration); Thorpe projected $24.7 MM excluding Long Term Supports and Services and between $5.5 - 6.0 MM in LTSS. So we can likely meet Thorpe's projections by doubling the personal and corporate income tax levels.

"Double your taxes for free health care at Medicare levels"

I'd suggest the left run with that strategy. I think it'll be killer in the upcoming elections.

[Teenwolf]

I'd suggest the left run with that strategy. I think it'll be killer in the upcoming elections.[/QUOTE]

Taxes go up, overall costs go down. How do you not see the obvious inefficiency of a for-profit model imposed on health care?!

You cant afford the cost of Medicare... but support the recent tax giveaway to the rich and the bloated military budget? Did you see the national debt projected to soar an extra $3 trillion because of the tax cut? I think we should stop letting the irresponsible teenagers stop blowing their inheritance on corporate handouts and give back to the REAL producers of wealth in the economy... the folks working like slaves for Amazon, not guys like Jeff Bezos.

Charles Krauthammer proclaimed that Medicare for all was an inevitability over a year ago, and he made a lot of sense. The cat is out of the bag.

Canadians think American health care is a travesty. We have insight into the benefits of a mixed market that excludes things like health care from the for-profit market... kinda like we do with our prisons. But, y'know, call me crazy.

Edit to add... pretty sure Americans think the current health care system is a travesty as well. I've heard around 60% of the country now supports Medicare for all.