Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion

[onejayhawk]

Wow. 'nuff said.
I guess you didn't read the question, which is what MEXICO got out of it, not Trump.
I think from now on most of us here should just answer you with one word: "Huh?" That should suffice with most of your responses.

I wish.

You don't get the slippage there?

It's very simple. You and the article assume that the tariff was an empty threat. Neither you nor the article gave any basis for this assumption which is counter-intuitive. What has the President done at any point that suggests he was making an idle threat? Any open minded person would see this as a red flag.

J

[revo]

It's very simple. You and the article assume that the tariff was an empty threat. Neither you nor the article gave any basis for this assumption which is counter-intuitive. What has the President done at any point that suggests he was making an idle threat? Any open minded person would see this as a red flag.

J

Trump and idle threats? Hmmm, I might need 50 posts to fill that up.



Meanwhile.......almost 70% of America's CFOs predict a recession next year thanks to the Epic Debacle known as the Trade War:
"Nearly half (48.1%) of chief financial officers in the United States are predicting the American economy will be in recession by the middle of next year, according to the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey released on Wednesday. And 69% of those executives are bracing for a recession by the end of 2020.

CFOs are growing more certain of a 2020 recession because of the paralyzing consequences of economic and political uncertainty — including trade wars — on business.
"Faced with uncertainty, companies may pause by holding off on spending and hiring. That can turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy," he said."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/12/economy/2020-recession-cfos-duke/index.html

[onejayhawk]

Trump and idle threats? Hmmm, I might need 50 posts to fill that up.



Meanwhile.......almost 70% of America's CFOs predict a recession next year thanks to the Epic Debacle known as the Trade War:
"Nearly half (48.1%) of chief financial officers in the United States are predicting the American economy will be in recession by the middle of next year, according to the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey released on Wednesday. And 69% of those executives are bracing for a recession by the end of 2020.

CFOs are growing more certain of a 2020 recession because of the paralyzing consequences of economic and political uncertainty — including trade wars — on business.
"Faced with uncertainty, companies may pause by holding off on spending and hiring. That can turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy," he said."
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/12/econo...uke/index.html

Just explain why you assume that the tariff threat was idle.

A recession is overdue, of course, so having a downturn in 2020 is not unexpected. That said, the expectation is that it will be short lived, a correction, a modest downturn, things of that nature. Are you suggesting otherwise because of, "the paralyzing consequences of economic and political uncertainty — including trade wars"?

J

[The Feral Slasher]

Just explain why you assume that the tariff threat was idle.



J

Already covered in post 606

[onejayhawk]

Already covered in post 606

No it isn't. It is assumed without any factual justification. That's the article. Ed hasn't explained his reasoning either.

J

[frae]

No it isn't. It is assumed without any factual justification. That's the article. Ed hasn't explained his reasoning either.

J

You asked Ed to explain why he assumes it, the article lists reasons I assume it. We can't get into Trump's head and Mexico isn't going to actually tell us what they really thought. The article just lays out what I see as a logical conclusion to what happened. Trump made an idle threat and Mexico knew it.

[DMT]

No it isn't. It is assumed without any factual justification. That's the article. Ed hasn't explained his reasoning either.

J

The factual justification is in the result. Seriously, you're grasping, even by your weak standards.

[onejayhawk]

You asked Ed to explain why he assumes it, the article lists reasons I assume it. We can't get into Trump's head and Mexico isn't going to actually tell us what they really thought. The article just lays out what I see as a logical conclusion to what happened. Trump made an idle threat and Mexico knew it.

The article lists no reasons I can see for the assumption that the tariff is an empty threat. Feel free to point it out but all I see is a statement that Trump could not be serious.

Ed's reasoning is still a mystery.

The factual justification is in the result. Seriously, you're grasping, even by your weak standards.

You are saying the factual justification is that it worked. It's nice of you to give Trump credit, but it undermines your logic. It seems the Mexicans do not share your belief that the threat was empty.

You were saying about weak logic?

J

[revo]

The article lists no reasons I can see for the assumption that the tariff is an empty threat. Feel free to point it out but all I see is a statement that Trump could not be serious.

Ed's reasoning is still a mystery.
J

Cue the canned OneJay response: Huh?

The Mexicans KNEW Trump couldn't go through with his threat because it would have led to an even bigger disaster than the current China Trade War. But they allowed Dopey to save face in order to keep the status quo and gave him an out, and that out was making public the prior agreement, which included this National Guard force to patrol their southern border, so it would look like he actually did get something. But uh oh, the NY Times reported that this had already been negotiated! Whoops! When Dopey pressed for more, they balked.

What part of this are you not getting?

[revo]

Trade Wars, oooh yeah
what are they good for
absolutely nothin
say it again


Let's have India join in, why not? Could devastate our almond and walnut industry, but who really cares, amiright?

NEW DELHI, June 14 (Reuters) - India is preparing to impose higher tariffs on some U.S. goods including almonds, walnuts and apples next week after a delay of about a year, two sources said, following Washington's withdrawal of key trade privileges for New Delhi.

From June 5, President Donald Trump scrapped trade privileges under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for India, the biggest beneficiary of a scheme that allowed duty-free exports of up to $5.6 billion from the country.

India is now looking at adopting the higher tariffs, the sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, although the U.S. has warned that any retaliatory tariffs by India would not be "appropriate" under WTO rules.

"What India is doing is legal and the tariffs on U.S. goods will only lead to an impact of around $220 million," one of the sources said, declining to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry did not respond to an email from Reuters to seek comments.

India initially issued an order in June last year to raise import taxes as high as 120% on a slew of U.S. items, incensed by Washington's refusal to exempt New Delhi from higher steel and aluminium tariffs. (https://reut.rs/2RfD9Rg)

But New Delhi repeatedly delayed raising tariffs as the two nations engaged in trade talks. Trade between them stood at about $142.1 billion in 2018.

[heyelander]

I need another Tariffs 101 primer ....

I follow what you and others say about US consumers paying for the tariffs we impose on other countries, so the hurt goes to us. But above it sounds like the tariffs India is imposing will hurt US exporters. So I guess the tariffs on China must be causing distress to Chinese exporters, no? I guess Trump's goal is in the long term a more beneficial homeostasis. Where's the error?

[revo]

I need another Tariffs 101 primer ....

I follow what you and others say about US consumers paying for the tariffs we impose on other countries, so the hurt goes to us. But above it sounds like the tariffs India is imposing will hurt US exporters. So I guess the tariffs on China must be causing distress to Chinese exporters, no? I guess Trump's goal is in the long term a more beneficial homeostasis. Where's the error?

Yes, the US tariffs on China are absolutely hurting Chinese exporters without question. Many US companies who import Chinese goods are looking to eject China from their supply chain if they can, because they don't know how long this Trade War will keep up. The problem with Trump's faulty logic is that those companies are NOT bringing these manufacturing jobs back to the US, but instead are looking for other cheap countries like Mexico, Vietnam or Malaysia, who are unaffected by tariffs, to produce their goods.

Part II to this answer is that China is not a democracy, so while a knock on their economy inflicted by the US may be painful, there's no political ramifications. Xi is president for life. Trump has an election in 18 months and is seeing much of his base getting pummeled by Chinese retaliatory tariffs. In addition, by placing tariffs on Chinese goods, many companies who need Chinese parts are absorbing costs or raising prices, because they can't get these parts anyplace else.

[heyelander]

Yes, the US tariffs on China are absolutely hurting Chinese exporters without question. Many US companies who import Chinese goods are looking to eject China from their supply chain if they can, because they don't know how long this Trade War will keep up. The problem with Trump's faulty logic is that those companies are NOT bringing these manufacturing jobs back to the US, but instead are looking for other cheap countries like Mexico, Vietnam or Malaysia, who are unaffected by tariffs, to produce their goods.

Part II to this answer is that China is not a democracy, so while a knock on their economy inflicted by the US may be painful, there's no political ramifications. Xi is president for life. Trump has an election in 18 months and is seeing much of his base getting pummeled by Chinese retaliatory tariffs. In addition, by placing tariffs on Chinese goods, many companies who need Chinese parts are absorbing costs or raising prices, because they can't get these parts anyplace else.

Thank you. This is the piece I'm missing. I need to read more.

[onejayhawk]

Yes, the US tariffs on China are absolutely hurting Chinese exporters without question. Many US companies who import Chinese goods are looking to eject China from their supply chain if they can, because they don't know how long this Trade War will keep up. The problem with Trump's faulty logic is that those companies are NOT bringing these manufacturing jobs back to the US, but instead are looking for other cheap countries like Mexico, Vietnam or Malaysia, who are unaffected by tariffs, to produce their goods.

Part II to this answer is that China is not a democracy, so while a knock on their economy inflicted by the US may be painful, there's no political ramifications. Xi is president for life. Trump has an election in 18 months and is seeing much of his base getting pummeled by Chinese retaliatory tariffs. In addition, by placing tariffs on Chinese goods, many companies who need Chinese parts are absorbing costs or raising prices, because they can't get these parts anyplace else.

You started so well then fell apart in paragraph two.

J

[Bernie Brewer]

You started so well then fell apart in paragraph two.

J

Are you saying revo tried over selling it again?