Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion

[onejayhawk]

don't buy stocks in a bear market unless you're shorting. i remember when i worked at Corning during the dot com bubble burst. watching GLW go from $100 (really $300 but they did a 3 for 1 split right before the collapse) to $1.10. probably took a year to hit bottom. and during that whole time it was a so-called 'buying opportunity'. if you want to lose you're entire 401k.

you can time tops and sell and wait for a pull back and jump in again, but you can't time bottoms. the only rally's are shorts covering and then it's back to jumping off the cliff.

winter is coming

It's not a Bear market. I wonder if your point about rallies being short covering is valid. Enforcement of the uptick rule has been very lax for years.

Winter started yesterday.

J

[nullnor]

i think they removed the rule in 2007. and i think it was mostly just symbolic anyway. for example when you are watching a company about to declare bankruptcy and you see a stock go from .60 to .006 i believe the dead cat bounces are the shorts covering. you can make a lot of money during it. i've never done it. but if you buy 10k shares at .04 and the shorts covering rally it to .09 before the final death plunge for example.

[onejayhawk]

I know that various dividend capture programs used short sales without waiting for an uptick.

J

[nullnor]

i've never had a margin account but i think it's easier to short. it's easier to tell a top than a bottom technical analysiswise because people always take profit. it's more risky if you're wrong though. when you're long you can always just wait. short's don't really have that option if they make the wrong play.

[revo]

It's not a Bear market. I wonder if your point about rallies being short covering is valid. Enforcement of the uptick rule has been very lax for years.

Winter started yesterday.

J

After today’s 650 pt plunge, caused primarily by Trump battering Jerome Powell again and Steve Mnuchin’s disastrous “reassurance,” both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are officially in bear markets.

[onejayhawk]

After today’s 650 pt plunge, caused primarily by Trump battering Jerome Powell again and Steve Mnuchin’s disastrous “reassurance,” both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are officially in bear markets.

Which I would call a buying opportunity because the earnings are there. Generally, when most people want to sell, it's time to buy.

J

[revo]

Which I would call a buying opportunity because the earnings are there. Generally, when most people want to sell, it's time to buy.

J

Feel free. One of my other Wall Street friends kept saying "buy the dip" every time it dropped 500 pts -- that was about 10 dips ago. There's a saying on WS -- don't try to catch a falling knife.

This whole "crash" is about one thing: the complete and total dysfunction of the Executive office. Nothing more, nothing less. The market realized this after that China meeting fiasco, when it was quickly realized he was lying through his teeth. The market no longer trusts the president -- which is horrifying.

The there's the Fed. The Fed exists to tame inflation, and they do that through interest rates. They are independent, and are made up of Fed governors from across the country. The Fed chairman himself does NOT change interest rates -- a committee of Fed governors do though a vote. Dumb Donny doesn't understand this. Threatening to fire the fed Chairman -- who HE APPOINTED just 10 months ago, because the previous Fed chairman, who was absolutely fine at her job, was fired because she was TOO SHORT -- just creates the optics of no confidence in the US financial system. Threatening to fire the SecTreas does nothing but do the same. It's ridiculous that this MAROON continues to publicly do this.

Dumb Donny today tweeted about "buying the dip" too. As I have said countless times in this thread, why is he tying his presidency to the stock market, which does NOT work in conjunction with the economy?? What a MAROON. And this guy was a "successful" businessman? Cripes.

[onejayhawk]

I'm fully invested, so the point is moot. Regardless, bear markets do not begin with fear and anxiety. They begin with runaway enthusiasm. For now, all that need be said is that earnings support the market value at better than normal ratios. Moreover, earnings futures look excellent.

Give up on the "complete and total dysfunction of the Executive office." It may look chaotic, but it is not dysfunctional. The Trump administration has functioned quite well and has the results to prove it. It surprises even conservatives, eg: https://spectator.org/trump-the-best...idnt-vote-for/ I can understand how a Democrat or a liberal does not like the accomplishments, but they should be willing to acknowledge them if they are intellectually honest.

As the saying goes, he's not Dumb Donny, he's crazy like a fox. The stock market will be his friend in 2019 at least. A finance major knows that.

J

[Fresno Bob]

I'm fully invested, so the point is moot. Regardless, bear markets do not begin with fear and anxiety. They begin with runaway enthusiasm. For now, all that need be said is that earnings support the market value at better than normal ratios. Moreover, earnings futures look excellent.

Give up on the "complete and total dysfunction of the Executive office." It may look chaotic, but it is not dysfunctional. The Trump administration has functioned quite well and has the results to prove it. It surprises even conservatives, eg: https://spectator.org/trump-the-best...idnt-vote-for/ I can understand how a Democrat or a liberal does not like the accomplishments, but they should be willing to acknowledge them if they are intellectually honest.

As the saying goes, he's not Dumb Donny, he's crazy like a fox. The stock market will be his friend in 2019 at least. A finance major knows that.

J

I'll go with the financial planner over the grocery clerk on this one

[revo]

At this point, you have to be conpletely and willfully blind that it’s not the dysfunction with Trump that has driven this market crash. Whether it’s his public angst with the Fed or his TreasSec, or his bald-faced lies, or the govt shutdown that he proudly owns, or the global slowdown from his epic Trade War disaster, it’s completely on him.

And wow— you give an OPINION piece from a RIGHT BIASED blog as “proof.” Jeez louise.

One Jay is the guy who tells the naked Trump how beautiful his suit is.

[revo]

Dow surges 1,086 pts, largest 1-day gain ever!

[Bernie Brewer]

Dow surges 1,086 pts, largest 1-day gain ever!

Thanks, Obama!

[onejayhawk]

I'll go with the financial planner over the grocery clerk on this one

That would be me.

At this point, you have to be conpletely and willfully blind that it’s not the dysfunction with Trump that has driven this market crash. Whether it’s his public angst with the Fed or his TreasSec, or his bald-faced lies, or the govt shutdown that he proudly owns, or the global slowdown from his epic Trade War disaster, it’s completely on him. And wow— you give an OPINION piece from a RIGHT BIASED blog as “proof.” Jeez louise. One Jay is the guy who tells the naked Trump how beautiful his suit is.

No. Trump will always look like shit. His wives can wear the clothes, but not the Donald.

Shocking that a conservative has an opinion. Report it immediately. In case you didn't read, it was not submitted as proof of anything but that conservatives have come around. It also does not make the facts raised into non-facts.

You claim it's disfunction. I claim it works. Perhaps it looks more dysfunctional than it is but it still works.

J

[revo]

OneJay -- Trump's capos today publicly said nah, he won't fire Jerome Powell, and the Dow shoots up 1,086 points. There you have it.

That would be me.

Since when?

Me, since 1992.

[onejayhawk]

OneJay -- Trump's capos today publicly said nah, he won't fire Jerome Powell, and the Dow shoots up 1,086 points. There you have it. Since when?
Me, since 1992.

Powell's job security was the only reason. Right.

Technically, a stockbroker in 1986 before I went to the actuarial side in 1989. I was there during the option calls of the 1987 meltdown. You will note that in spite of the Dow losing 20% in four hours, 1987 was basically a correction. The Dow made it all back in four months.

J