2018 Midterm Election Thread

[cardboardbox]

Within expectations this was a pretty good night!

[Judge Jude]

my House district was won by one of the many younger D candidates who said they won't vote for Pelosi to return as House Speaker. she got tied to Pelosi in nasty fliers anyway. if she 'flips' on that, it makes her 2020 scenario harder. if she doesn't - maybe same.

I think there are something like a dozen winning D incumbents who have said they are done with Pelosi, and about 50 more newcomers who ran in part against "Pelosi speaker."

that's one helluva lot of arm-twisting to come.

[onejayhawk]

As predicted, a mixed bag. Democrats are +4 in Governorships as of now. Republicans are +3 in the Senate and appear likely to hold Arizona. Democrats are currently +15 in the House and should pick up at least five more just in California. The question is not if the Democrats control the House, but how big the margin will be.

J

[revo]

my House district was won by one of the many younger D candidates who said they won't vote for Pelosi to return as House Speaker. she got tied to Pelosi in nasty fliers anyway. if she 'flips' on that, it makes her 2020 scenario harder. if she doesn't - maybe same.

I think there are something like a dozen winning D incumbents who have said they are done with Pelosi, and about 50 more newcomers who ran in part against "Pelosi speaker."

that's one helluva lot of arm-twisting to come.

I think it’s time for Pelosi to go, if only because Trump has her number.

[cardboardbox]

my House district was won by one of the many younger D candidates who said they won't vote for Pelosi to return as House Speaker. she got tied to Pelosi in nasty fliers anyway. if she 'flips' on that, it makes her 2020 scenario harder. if she doesn't - maybe same.

I think there are something like a dozen winning D incumbents who have said they are done with Pelosi, and about 50 more newcomers who ran in part against "Pelosi speaker."

that's one helluva lot of arm-twisting to come.

Speaker Waters! Now!

[Fresno Bob]

Nancy Pelosi is my representative, but I'm 100% fine with her turning over Speakership to someone 30 years younger

[nots]

Speaker Waters! Now!

She is going to be the head of the banking committee. That should be interesting

[frae]

So I am trying to sift through things to see where we are...

Still seeing the projection of about 34 seats picked up in the House. Some seats are too close to call at this hour.

The Senate gains and losses look like. R gains in IN, MO, and ND. Dem gains NV Then what I would have to guess are likely R gains in FL and AZ but I haven't dug into what is outstanding in AZ so maybe that one still has a chance to be a dem flip I don't know. I know McSally leads. Dave Wasserman has Tester holding MT based on what is going to come in still, but no one is officially calling it.

7 governors mansions flipped to the Democrats and they did not lose any that they previously held. Dems were unable to get FL and GA while I don't see it conceded yet seems unlikely to get Kemp under 50 to trigger a runoff. The two best wins of the night were in KS and for me personally seeing Scott Walker finally lose in WI. CT is still close enough and could be a flip for R's. Democrat Ned Lamont leads now with 91% in. The most likely scenario at this hour seems to be 27-23. I will say there is a still a chance those absentee ballots trigger a runoff in GA.

My wish list of 5 had a decent night.

I got Spanberger and Evers to win. Scott Walker losing is just too good and Dave Brat someone who outflanked Eric Cantor to the right going down is great.
Beto will lose by less than 3%, so maybe just a few Texans like him uh? Maybe he was a good candidate?
Abrams is still putting up a hell of a fight with a lot going against her.
King won by 3.5, sadly overt racism can't overcome an R+25 or more district.

Both sides have stories to spin their way. I guess I'll give the positives on my side. Control of the house gives Democrats some actual oversite on President Trump and his agenda. Winning back races in WI, PA, MI, and MN are good news in 2020 in my mind. TX and GA opened up a bit more tonight to future state elections for Dems. I won't spin for the other side I am sure someone else can do that. Overall I'll take it.

[frae]

Digging through some of my favorite House races.

GA 6 - The Ossoff race has now moved to Lucy McBath holding a 2,100 vote lead over Rep incumbent Karen Handel. 100% in accoring to the NYT but not officially called, but this would be a good win.

CA 48 - The Rohrabacher district. Currently Rouda leads by about 2,700 with 100% in very similar to GA 6. I assume the dems get it at this point.

[nots]

All 3 indicted Congressman won. Menedez and Hunter rather easily, while Collins slipped by. Sad really that folks value party over ethics, but it is what it is.
All 3 Senate races I was pulling for fell short. In addition to Menendez, Beto couldn’t quite finish. He ran a great campaign, had all the money he could possibly want and was running against a very unlikeable candidate but still couldn’t get it done.I think is likely to be the Dems high water mark in Texas for awhile. Can’t see even Beto getting to within 3 of Cornyn, letting alone another Texas D.
Feinstein won too, albeit a closer race than I expected. Still don’t understand the rationale for a Democrat in California voting for her over a much more liberal, much younger opponent who would represent the future. Didn’t pay close attention to the race, so maybe deLeon didn’t run a great campaign. Folks must not have seen her performance at the Kavanaugh hearings. She can now serve her final term.
Surprised by the spreads in the red state Senate race with Blackburn, Hawley, Cramer and Braun winning by double figures. 538 and RCP all had much, much closer spreads than that. Guess it speaks to the increased polarization of the country.

[umjewman]

All 3 indicted Congressman won. Menedez and Hunter rather easily, while Collins slipped by. Sad really that folks value party over ethics, but it is what it is.

I think Hugin would have beaten Menendez if anyone other than Trump was the President. Just a hunch. I heard multiple people say they hated Menendez but wanted to vote against Trump, so there you go.

[Teenwolf]

All 3 indicted Congressman won. Menedez and Hunter rather easily, while Collins slipped by. Sad really that folks value party over ethics, but it is what it is.
All 3 Senate races I was pulling for fell short. In addition to Menendez, Beto couldn’t quite finish. He ran a great campaign, had all the money he could possibly want and was running against a very unlikeable candidate but still couldn’t get it done.I think is likely to be the Dems high water mark in Texas for awhile. Can’t see even Beto getting to within 3 of Cornyn, letting alone another Texas D.
Feinstein won too, albeit a closer race than I expected. Still don’t understand the rationale for a Democrat in California voting for her over a much more liberal, much younger opponent who would represent the future. Didn’t pay close attention to the race, so maybe deLeon didn’t run a great campaign. Folks must not have seen her performance at the Kavanaugh hearings. She can now serve her final term.
Surprised by the spreads in the red state Senate race with Blackburn, Hawley, Cramer and Braun winning by double figures. 538 and RCP all had much, much closer spreads than that. Guess it speaks to the increased polarization of the country.

Agree on all points. Pathetic that Duncan Hunter was voted back in.

Do you think the reason Blackburn, Hawley, Cramer and Braun all crushed so much is that their opponents ran as "R-lite", and Republicans preferred the full calorie alternative?

[B-Fly]

I know everyone's instinct is to spin, but even keeping my expectations in check, I'm very disappointed in the results in the Senate and several Governorships. I obviously can't complain about the House. But Florida was pretty devastating - big polling miss there, plus Donnelly, McCaskill and potentially Tester and Sinema going down. Democrats won the popular vote by over 9 percentage points across all votes/voters last night, but given our federalist system that's not good enough to win an amalgamated tally of statewide races.

I know Teenwolf won't be happy to hear me say this, but last night was particularly bad for progressives, largely because of the Florida governor's race, after the polling looked good. Maybe it's just a return of the Bradley effect and maybe a white semi-populist progressive like Sanders (or a younger version) can win blue collar voters in swing states, but I'm not optimistic.

The Democratic Party is a plurality party, not a majority party (once accounting for independents). As currently constituted, it gets the most American votes most of the time. And the Progressives certainly can capture a majority of Democrats in a lot of places a lot of the time. And "the system is fundamentally broken"/"the empire is dying"/"the country is irredeemably racist" Progressives can win in the right Congressional districts. But statewide? In the rust belt? In the south? For the presidency? I think the nation as a whole is too committed to the idea of American exceptionalism to run against that. Obama appealed to many progressives on an idealistic and symbolic level, but he was one of the best orators/advocates for American exceptionalism and sunny patriotism in US history (despite what GOP "nationalists" will tell you). Wrap that around a meaningful economic security/opportunity message (including health care/cost security) and you've got something. I say that even as I think in some ways the system is fundamentally broken, the empire is dying and the country is irredeemably racist. There's a lot of evidence to support such beliefs. It's just not going to win the Senate or the White House any time soon.

[B-Fly]

Do you think the reason Blackburn, Hawley, Cramer and Braun all crushed so much is that their opponents ran as "R-lite", and Republicans preferred the full calorie alternative?

No, I don't. I think those states voted against the Democratic Party, just like NJ voters voted against the Republican Party.

[gcstomp]

Not a blue wave. But turnout was there. D captured majority by is it 9 million net votes, yet lost ground in senate. The structural strangulation of democracy, what democracy? As in he with the most votes wins is democracy, we have a perversion as shaped by gerrymandering. But with progress in number of governorship maybe maps can be more fairly restructured. In any case, we have restoration of checks and balances to Trumps previously unfettered strong man aspirations with House.
Florida is a heart breaker. The Parkland kids worked hard. The influx of Puerto Rico residents to Florida I thought would make a dent, with how poorly Trump handled that island disaster. Instead criminal Rick Scott can reap another 350 million in ill gotten gains into his pockets in unethical maneuverings, just sickening. But overall still has to rank as a good night with gain of House plus some governerships for Dems.