2018 Midterm Election Thread

[Hornsby]

A few posts earlier it was already decided that Nancy Pelosi will fix it for everyone when the blue wave crash’s upon the rocky shoreline.

Yeah, not gonna happen...changing the entire (or damn near) tax code as just happened is an enormously difficult thing to do. Even if the "blue wave" takes both the house and Senate, Trump will never sign a bill like that.

[onejayhawk]

What's not going to happen, the blue wave or rescinding the tax law?

Either way, you're right.

J

[cardboardbox]

A few posts earlier it was already decided that Nancy Pelosi will fix it for everyone when the blue wave crash’s upon the rocky shoreline.

That's accurate.

[Bernie Brewer]

That's accurate.

I am thinking the Blue Wave is not going to be as blue as predicted. Chance is correct, “it’s the economy, stupid!” While I’ll stipulate the Obama got handed a pile of dog poop and not the kind in a plastic baggy, as yet and maybe never tTrump hasn’t screwed it up which is much to the chagrin of many in the left. Generally speaking, the economy is doing very well.

It will be interesting “selling” voters on we can make the economy better for Blacks and Hispanics when unemployement for both is at all time lows. If all they have to sell is “well, he’s worse!” And the GOP doesn’t run a bunch of Roy Moores and Don Blankenships!

[Hornsby]

I am thinking the Blue Wave is not going to be as blue as predicted. Chance is correct, “it’s the economy, stupid!” While I’ll stipulate the Obama got handed a pile of dog poop and not the kind in a plastic baggy, as yet and maybe never tTrump hasn’t screwed it up which is much to the chagrin of many in the left. Generally speaking, the economy is doing very well.

It will be interesting “selling” voters on we can make the economy better for Blacks and Hispanics when unemployement for both is at all time lows. If all they have to sell is “well, he’s worse!” And the GOP doesn’t run a bunch of Roy Moores and Don Blankenships!

Ya know, these things tend to come in waves of momentum (see what I did there?), and I suspect that there are a few more waves to come before November. Oil prices are going up, due in large part (according to analysts) to Trump pulling us out of the Iran nuclear deal. The low unemployment numbers are a double edged sword, as are the immigration crackdowns. I read story after story about how certain businesses can't get workers, visas are being denied, and sooner rather than later, prices will rise on a lot of goods.

So I'll be hesitant to point at any big shift in momentum until a couple of weeks before the election.

[Bernie Brewer]

Ya know, these things tend to come in waves of momentum (see what I did there?), and I suspect that there are a few more waves to come before November. Oil prices are going up, due in large part (according to analysts) to Trump pulling us out of the Iran nuclear deal. The low unemployment numbers are a double edged sword, as are the immigration crackdowns. I read story after story about how certain businesses can't get workers, visas are being denied, and sooner rather than later, prices will rise on a lot of goods.

So I'll be hesitant to point at any big shift in momentum until a couple of weeks before the election.

Right, I agree. Lots of ballgame left. Gas prices are rarely affected by the President and this time it might be different. But we’ll see.

[OaklandA's]

Generally speaking, the economy is doing very well.

This part really confuses me, because the Republicans saying that the economy is doing well are the same ones who said the economy was doing terribly under Obama. But the economy is almost exactly the same.

Average GDP Growth 2014-2016: 2.3%
GDP Growth 2017: 2.3%

Average Jobs Added 2014-2016: 2.6M
Jobs Added 2017: 2.11M

Average Budget Deficit 2014-2016: $500M
Budget Deficit 2017: $665M
Projected Deficit 2018: $800M

So GDP growth has been the same, job growth has actually slowed a little, and budget deficits are rising quickly. Serious question - why is the economy considered so good now, and considered so bad under Obama?

[onejayhawk]

This part really confuses me, because the Republicans saying that the economy is doing well are the same ones who said the economy was doing terribly under Obama. But the economy is almost exactly the same.

Average GDP Growth 2014-2016: 2.3%
GDP Growth 2017: 2.3%

Average Jobs Added 2014-2016: 2.6M
Jobs Added 2017: 2.11M

Average Budget Deficit 2014-2016: $500M
Budget Deficit 2017: $665M
Projected Deficit 2018: $800M

So GDP growth has been the same, job growth has actually slowed a little, and budget deficits are rising quickly. Serious question - why is the economy considered so good now, and considered so bad under Obama?

Who said Republicans couldn't spin facts when they want to? Absolutely Trump has been taking credit for work that was done before he arrived. It's not like he applied brakes.

J

[Bernie Brewer]

This part really confuses me, because the Republicans saying that the economy is doing well are the same ones who said the economy was doing terribly under Obama. But the economy is almost exactly the same.

Average GDP Growth 2014-2016: 2.3%
GDP Growth 2017: 2.3%

Average Jobs Added 2014-2016: 2.6M
Jobs Added 2017: 2.11M

Average Budget Deficit 2014-2016: $500M
Budget Deficit 2017: $665M
Projected Deficit 2018: $800M

So GDP growth has been the same, job growth has actually slowed a little, and budget deficits are rising quickly. Serious question - why is the economy considered so good now, and considered so bad under Obama?

I certainly didn’t say it was bad under Obama. I said he got handed a bag of poop when he came into office. But why is it that Democrats who predicted the stock market would crash under Trump and his policies would slow improving unemployment and only make to wealthy better off are not likely to admit that there is finally real wage growth again, not great but moving in the right direction at about 2.5%. Unemployment corrections didn’t cease and job growth it difficult when you don’t have many people out looking. Unemployment was 3.9% in April. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

In April, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, following 6 months at 4.1 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.3 million, also edged down over the month.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women decreased to 3.5 percent in April. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (6.6 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little or no change over the month

The DOW is up about 50% since Trump took office after dropping 8% in Obama’s last year. Not sure what to make of either but it’s hardly a sign of loss of confidence.

So my honest question is other than “Well, he’s worse!” What are the Democrats going to sell as the message for the blue wave? Again, there are indicators that all of this could change. The tariffs and trade wars, the recent unsteadiness in the stock market (still significantly higher than when Obama left office), etc. Lotta ballgame left before Election Day. Anything can happen.

[OaklandA's]

The DOW is up about 50% since Trump took office after dropping 8% in Obama’s last year. Not sure what to make of either but it’s hardly a sign of loss of confidence.

So my honest question is other than “Well, he’s worse!” What are the Democrats going to sell as the message for the blue wave? Again, there are indicators that all of this could change. The tariffs and trade wars, the recent unsteadiness in the stock market (still significantly higher than when Obama left office), etc. Lotta ballgame left before Election Day. Anything can happen.

Setting aside your distortions about the stock market, I think the stock market would tank if Trump was actually was allowed to do the things that he campaigned on - putting 35% tariffs on imports, ending NAFTA, pulling out of the WTO, ending the ACA and taking away health care from tens of millions, spending tens of billions on the wall, deporting all 13 million undocumented immigrants, slashing legal immigration, etc. Luckily, Trump has been prevented from doing most of those things.

There are two main areas that Trump has affected the economy:
1) Slashed environmental regulations - This trades environmental quality for economic growth. Obviously, everyone draws the line at different places, but I would prefer stricter laws on air and water quality than Trump's administration.
2) Tax Cuts - This has been the biggest factor for the stock market, since obviously corporations are loving the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. But is it good for the country? The administration says the cuts will increase GDP by an additional 1 or 2%. Even if you believe this to be true (most economists don't), you still have to ask if this GDP growth is worth the larger deficits. GDP is around $20T/yr. So increasing it by an additional 1% means an extra $200B in GDP. But if the deficit goes up by $300-500B, is that a worthwhile trade? I think the GOP expects that the country will see the short-term growth, and ignore the longer term implications, in that the increasing deficit will lead to Congress needing to slash critical government spending, which will hurt the overall economic state and quality of life for the country. Plus, there are issues with income inequality, tax cut permanence, etc. that also suggest that the tax cut law is not good for the country.

[gcstomp]

As oak laid out, Trump would be devastating to market, general economy, as well as world markets if everything he campaigned on were allowed to pass. Also U.S. would helm a level of vindictive action in ousting 13 million undoc immigrants the likes only seen in truly evil sadistic strong man regimes.
But odd to pick and choose Dow.
How did stocks under the Obama administration fare?

First year: U.S. up 47.2%.
First term: U.S. up 19.9% annually.
Two terms: U.S. up by 16.5% annually.

[onejayhawk]

If you want some analytics, try this. https://www.axios.com/trump-midterm-...74c3e48ef.html

As oak laid out, Trump would be devastating to market, general economy, as well as world markets if everything he campaigned on were allowed to pass. Also U.S. would helm a level of vindictive action in ousting 13 million undoc immigrants the likes only seen in truly evil sadistic strong man regimes.
But odd to pick and choose Dow.
How did stocks under the Obama administration fare?

First year: U.S. up 47.2%.
First term: U.S. up 19.9% annually.
Two terms: U.S. up by 16.5% annually.

You're cherry picking a bit. The Dow was rebounding from a major drop. Starting in January 2008 or 2010 you get a different picture.

That said, you have a valid point. Trump is standing on Obama's shoulders but taking full credit. This is particularly true of employment numbers.

J

[nots]

If you want some analytics, try this. https://www.axios.com/trump-midterm-...74c3e48ef.html



You're cherry picking a bit. The Dow was rebounding from a major drop. Starting in January 2008 or 2010 you get a different picture.

That said, you have a valid point. Trump is standing on Obama's shoulders but taking full credit. This is particularly true of employment numbers.

J

I agree with you fully OJH.

[gcstomp]

onejay, Bernie chose to play the look how great market is under Trump. I just pointed Dow out the entire 8 years under Obama. I didnt just out of blue say lets talk about how great market was under prior President, but was trying to point out Bernies 1 year was the cherry picking part, but no biggie.

That mega tax plan that Trump proudly penned thru gave massive breaks to corps, Exxon alone made something like a 50 billion windfall, hundreds of companies did massive stock buyback plans that resulted in higher stock prices, it would have been pretty amazing for market to tank considering the plan passed was all about mega corps and billionaires getting even more wealthy while pushing the vast majority of population further down the inequality rabbit hole, all at the expense of vastly higher deficits. Monster deficit not for the greater good as Obama tried to do, but for the benefit of a handful. I guess in either case our kids are screwed as one administration to another is pushing higher deficits, who cares reasons, but reckoning is acoming.

[Bernie Brewer]

onejay, Bernie chose to play the look how great market is under Trump. I just pointed Dow out the entire 8 years under Obama. I didnt just out of blue say lets talk about how great market was under prior President, but was trying to point out Bernies 1 year was the cherry picking part, but no biggie.

That mega tax plan that Trump proudly penned thru gave massive breaks to corps, Exxon alone made something like a 50 billion windfall, hundreds of companies did massive stock buyback plans that resulted in higher stock prices, it would have been pretty amazing for market to tank considering the plan passed was all about mega corps and billionaires getting even more wealthy while pushing the vast majority of population further down the inequality rabbit hole, all at the expense of vastly higher deficits. Monster deficit not for the greater good as Obama tried to do, but for the benefit of a handful. I guess in either case our kids are screwed as one administration to another is pushing higher deficits, who cares reasons, but reckoning is acoming.

I didn't choose to play anything. I made the comment that I don't see the Blue Wave happening, at least not to magnitude that has been predicted by many MSM and pundits. I asked the question of what are the Blue Wavers going to run on? I said it can't be the economy because things are pretty good. Most voters don't even understand the economy, they only understand their own pocketbook issues.

The DOW is up about 50% since Trump took office after dropping 8% in Obama’s last year. Not sure what to make of either but it’s hardly a sign of loss of confidence.

Where does it say "look how great market is under Trump" because that's not what I wrote, but it may be what you read! I think the second sentence says more than the first about my opinion!