2018 Midterm Election Thread

[Bernie Brewer]

Yes, and yes, but I'll answer . Overturning domestic agendas and abiding by international agreements are entirely separate matters for me.

You know I’m being sarcastic (in an ironic and humorous way, though I’m sure it’s never funny to some), right? But if you truly believe this you understand why Obamacare being changed is OK (I agree there need to be changes but not totally blown up). Again. Wrong thread.


To get back on track, in response to JJ’s post, it is an example of the lack of real analysis of polling data. Blankenship was supposed to win last night because the major MSM had him surging. Turns out not to be true. Since Trump was elected, against the apparent odds, why trust polling anymore? I guess it’s something but it’s not as reliable as in the past. I hate to say fake news but it some times seems like CNN and the ilk are pushing for the Blue Wave because it fits their agenda of correcting their overzealous coverage of Trump in 2015 & 2016. Yes, there have been some strange special election results recently, such as with a Roy Moore debacle, but it’s because really bad candidates were coming to the front. Even Trump had the good sense to come out hard, though late, against Blankenship. If both parties need to run better candidates then maybe we’ll not see such wildly varying polling data.

[onejayhawk]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/polit...ows/index.html

I seriously do not understand why the change. anyone? did I miss something?

"The generic congressional ballot has continued to tighten, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, with the Democrats' edge over Republicans within the poll's margin of sampling error for the first time this cycle.
About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%).

The Democrats' advantage in the generic ballot dipped from 16 points in February to six points in March to just three points now. The party's advantage has waned among enthusiastic voters as Republican enthusiasm has grown"

there is still good news on the left:

"the Democrats still have a double-digit lead among those most excited to vote this fall (53% of those who are very enthusiastic about voting say they'd back the Democrat in their district vs. 41% who say they favor the GOP candidate)."

"By 48% to 43%, registered voters say they would rather back a candidate who opposes Donald Trump than one who supports the President. (That margin has narrowed from the 52% who opposed Trump to the 41% who supported him in January.)"

The generic average at RCP is still about 6%. The highest margin was about 13% early in the year. All that said, there are some obvious reasons. The economy is good, the job climate is excellent, and foreign news has been upbeat. Witness Trump's numbers. His disaprroval numbers are in single digits, after topping -21% late last year. His job approval on the economy is +7%. On foreign policy it's -8%, but that includes a month old -16%. Numbers in the last week have been -4% or better. In general, people feel better about the country than any point of not just Trump's tenure, but since the recession.

You can make a sound case that Trump is standing on Obama's shoulders. Unemployment was under 7% when he took office. The economy has not had a negative quarter since 1014 and only two since the end of 2009. While the economy has warmed somewhat, it is not moving much faster, common perception to the contrary. Trump and the GOP have successfully taken credit with very little blow back. To a degree it is understandable. Fracking has been a major boost to the economy and a genuine asset in foreign relations, but Democrats shy from it. It is ironic that Obama is the fracking President much as Reagan was the tax increase President.

In any event, turnout numbers from Tuesday do not show the Democratic enthusiasm that was expected. Instead, early voting pushes cannibalized their live vote. Republicans were the ones out in record numbers. A blue wave may materialize, but at the moment it looks like the Hillary wave.

CNN today. https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opini...ion/index.html

J

[chancellor]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/polit...ows/index.html

I seriously do not understand why the change. anyone? did I miss something?

As the successful Clinton campaign noted "It's the economy....".

[B-Fly]

In any event, turnout numbers from Tuesday do not show the Democratic enthusiasm that was expected. Instead, early voting pushes cannibalized their live vote. Republicans were the ones out in record numbers. A blue wave may materialize, but at the moment it looks like the Hillary wave.

CNN today. https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opini...ion/index.html

J

I think in this first midterm election of the Trump administration, Democratic enthusiasm and turnout translates to general election turnout against Republicans, not primary turnout. I think many Democrats -- both 2016 Bernie supporters and 2016 Hillary supporters -- are now either more dispirited or more cautious about Democratic primaries. I, for one, have in the past actively chosen, donated to, and advocated for a particular primary candidate. For 2018, I'm largely holding back until after the primaries establish the general election matchups.

[Hornsby]

Outstanding young man and soon to be private citizen Paul Ryan (he of the chaplin firing) met with Mega Doner Sheldon Adelson to secure a 30 million dollar donation to a SuperPac aimed at the 2018 midterms. He laid out the whole plan for Adelson...However, since it would be illegal for young Paul to personally ask for the money (because it was a 7 figure political donation), Young Paul left the room and had his friend, former Senator Norm Coleman, actually ask for the money. Sheldon wrote out the check and everything was right with the world...

Ain't politics grand? And yes, I'm sure that there are cases where the Dems did similar shenanigans, but this was reported today, so I post it today.

[onejayhawk]

I think in this first midterm election of the Trump administration, Democratic enthusiasm and turnout translates to general election turnout against Republicans, not primary turnout. I think many Democrats -- both 2016 Bernie supporters and 2016 Hillary supporters -- are now either more dispirited or more cautious about Democratic primaries. I, for one, have in the past actively chosen, donated to, and advocated for a particular primary candidate. For 2018, I'm largely holding back until after the primaries establish the general election matchups.

That may be true to a point. Still, Conor Lamb would have real trouble winning a primary

Usually it's the second mid term that goes badly against the President's party--1966, 1986, 2006. 1994 is the big exception and there were two major Washington insider scandals that bit Democrats harder than Republicans--The House Bank and the Congressional Post Office. Newt made hay, but the field was already cut.

J

[chancellor]

Interesting opinion piece in the NY Times...and, yes, I'm conceding that the Grey Lady has produced something of value.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/10/opinion/democrats-partisanship-identity-politics.html

[The Feral Slasher]

Outstanding young man and soon to be private citizen Paul Ryan (he of the chaplin firing) met with Mega Doner Sheldon Adelson to secure a 30 million dollar donation to a SuperPac aimed at the 2018 midterms. He laid out the whole plan for Adelson...However, since it would be illegal for young Paul to personally ask for the money (because it was a 7 figure political donation), Young Paul left the room and had his friend, former Senator Norm Coleman, actually ask for the money. Sheldon wrote out the check and everything was right with the world...

Ain't politics grand? And yes, I'm sure that there are cases where the Dems did similar shenanigans, but this was reported today, so I post it today.

This is just partisan hackery on a grand scale. The primary claim is just not true and a quick google search easily confirms it.













Sheldon Adelson is not, in fact, a huge Mediterranean sandwich.

mega doner.jpg

[Judge Jude]

Politico put it this way:

"YES, Paul Ryan flew across the country to meet with Sheldon Adelson, and when the super PAC asked for $30 million, he had to leave the room. Yep, it’s weird. That’s how campaign finance works. They can do everything but ask for the big dough. Happens routinely in both parties."

so I don't understand the point of your post. maybe you can explain how it is productive to constructive discussion.

I'm guessing it's what passes for discourse on Facebook; if so, I'm glad I never joined Facebook.
(and no, the late half-hearted disclaimer doesn't save it)

[Sour Masher]

Interesting opinion piece in the NY Times...and, yes, I'm conceding that the Grey Lady has produced something of value.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/10/o...-politics.html

Yeah, that is a good piece. A pity most folks won't read it, because it is in the "failing NYT" :P.

[Judge Jude]

it is interesting, though I found it making the same fundamental error of that "What's the Matter with Kansas" guy - mostly assuming that all one should support is a policy expected to boost one's pocketbook. it does make good points on the NIMBY variety

[B-Fly]

Yeah, that is a good piece. A pity most folks won't read it, because it is in the "failing NYT" :P.

I'm just trying to think about how close I'm getting to the monthly cap on NYT articles I can read online, lol. I guess if both you and chancellor agree that it's worth reading, I'll use up an article on it.

[nots]

I'm just trying to think about how close I'm getting to the monthly cap on NYT articles I can read online, lol. I guess if both you and chancellor agree that it's worth reading, I'll use up an article on it.

I’m over my limit....guess I will have to sit this one out

[Hornsby]

Politico put it this way:

"YES, Paul Ryan flew across the country to meet with Sheldon Adelson, and when the super PAC asked for $30 million, he had to leave the room. Yep, it’s weird. That’s how campaign finance works. They can do everything but ask for the big dough. Happens routinely in both parties."

so I don't understand the point of your post. maybe you can explain how it is productive to constructive discussion.

I'm guessing it's what passes for discourse on Facebook; if so, I'm glad I never joined Facebook.
(and no, the late half-hearted disclaimer doesn't save it)

My point was simply to point out the hypocrisy of the situation, and, as I pointed out, I'm sure that it happens on both sides of the aisle. How it may be productive is to educate people on the laws, silly as they may be, and to perhaps spark conversation about how we might limit big money in campaigns.

Nice snark on the facebook jab, too bad I don't do anything on facebook...

[nots]

My point was simply to point out the hypocrisy of the situation, and, as I pointed out, I'm sure that it happens on both sides of the aisle. How it may be productive is to educate people on the laws, silly as they may be, and to perhaps spark conversation about how we might limit big money in campaigns.

Nice snark on the facebook jab, too bad I don't do anything on facebook...

Cmon man, own it. There is no chance you would have ‘pointed out the hypocricsy of the situation’ if it was Tom Seyter making the donation. No chance. It makes the GOP look bad, so it’s a win for you and your team, which is why you posted it.