2018 Midterm Election Thread

[Teenwolf]

Which 5 Wins do you want the most?

1) Ojeda in WV. If far left populism can turn a +50 Trump district blue it will validate the progressive model of how to run.

2) Beto beating Ted Cruz. Obviously.

3) Amar Campa-Najjar beating Duncan Hunter in California. Hunter is just such a scumbag. Stole a quarter million in campaign funds, then blamed his wife as his campaign manager, despite the fact that some of the stolen funds were spent on escapades with 2 different mistresses! Then he released an ad smearing Campa-Najjar as an invading Muslim extremist (idiocy, he was born in Palestine, but practised as a Christian)... so all those factors, plus C-N is a Justice Democrat, and I want a large true progressive caucus.

4) Stacy Abrahms over Kemp. The rampant cheating just disgusts me. Not sure how Republicans justify it to themselves.

5) Sarah Smith over Adam Smith, Washington. I want the uncorrupted Justice Dem to take it from the incumbent corporate Dem. Dem on Dem crime, fun to watch.

(Gillum will be fun too if it happens, but i wanted to highlight smaller races)

[B-Fly]

OK time to make picks I guess.

The House - Democrats gain 35 seats, I won't go district by district, but there are some fun races to watch out there.

The Senate - My house projection is not overly optimistic, but since I want to be a full on cheerleader here I'll take Democrats gain 1 seat. I can't guess based on the evidence present that Beto or Bredesen win, but I will be cheering for that. What I will project is all the Likely/lean and tossups on 538

Dems win - NJ, WV, MT, FL, AZ, Mizzou, and NV. My confidence is probably in that order. So those are 2 gains for the Democrats in AZ and NV.

Reps win - ND,TX, TN, and MS (there will be a runoff but the Dems won't get a majority tonight to eliminate that and then they will lose in the runoff.) . 1 Gain for the Republicans.

I've seen the stats that 18-29 voting is up in TN and TX, but this is one of those things that you need to show me with results before I am going to throw out models saying how unlikely it is. That said I do think it is likely that Beto has closed it to 3-4 points which is pretty damn impressive.

Ok Govenors this one is crazy to project but here goes, I'll draw the line at 8/10 races and use the deluxe model of 538 here...

Democrats win - Oregon, CT, FL, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Kansas because it is close enough to happen.

Republicans win - Oklahoma, Alaska, South Dakota, and Georgia.

The Georgia race is the one I am most interested in. The last reputable poll there had Kemp +2, but a female black candidate could bring voters we don't count as likely voters. I think IA, OH, WI, NV, KS, SD, and GA are all going to be 3 or less points and that will be within the margin of error of most polls we have seen. So anything could happen there, but the good news for Democrats is outside of CT and Oregon which are fairly safe they are playing offense here unlike the Senate. So any of these wins are pickups and it is vital that Democrats start having more influence at the state level.

Ok that's it we will see how it goes. I had hernia surgery yesterday so I will be on my ass watching The West Wing a lot of the day until I switch over to political coverage this evening. Get out there and vote guys.

Hm, that would be a pretty good night. Not sure I'm as optimistic as you on the Senate or the Governor's races. Probably a bit more optimistic than you on the House.

I'll go with Dems +40 in the House, Dems either lose one or hold a zero gain in the Senate (I fear at least one and maybe two of AZ/MO/NV goes red), and on the governors, that the GOP holds Kansas. Otherwise I'm with you on Senate and Governor's races, although I still hold out some desperate hope for Stacey Abrams based on the supercharged black voter engagement in that race.

[frae]

Strictly speaking, as I want the most I would list 5 close Senate races and give the Democrats the Senate. Throwing that out I'll give you the 5 that I think would matter to the message of the Democrats getting through...

1. Stacy Abrams wins as a black female in a conservative state in the south. Her opponent is an ass who has done everything in his power as state AG to help himself win and just last night tweeted a picture of 4 black men and said something along the lines of do you want to vote for Stacy Abrams when the black panthers support her.

2. I'm tempted to say Kansas but I'll go with Wisconsin Tony Evers over Scott Walker. Walker has been a the guy that the Dems just can't beat and he is in part of the rust belt states that cost Clinton the election that the Dems need to take back.

3. Beto - If you are asking me to pipe dream I will take the progressive candidate running unabashedly as a progressive in Texas.

4. JD Scholten over Steve King in the Iowa 4th. A midwestern state that had voted for Obama before. A very conservative district standing up to a blatantly racist candidate.

5. Abigail Spanberger over David Brat in the VA 7th. I saw her debate closing and she was awesome. This is a more conservative VA district and would be good to see that state keep trending from purple to blue.

[B-Fly]

Which 5 Wins do you want the most?

1) Ojeda in WV. If far left populism can turn a +50 Trump district blue it will validate the progressive model of how to run.

2) Beto beating Ted Cruz. Obviously.

3) Amar Campa-Najjar beating Duncan Hunter in California. Hunter is just such a scumbag. Stole a quarter million in campaign funds, then blamed his wife as his campaign manager, despite the fact that some of the stolen funds were spent on escapades with 2 different mistresses! Then he released an ad smearing Campa-Najjar as an invading Muslim extremist (idiocy, he was born in Palestine, but practised as a Christian)... so all those factors, plus C-N is a Justice Democrat, and I want a large true progressive caucus.

4) Stacy Abrahms over Kemp. The rampant cheating just disgusts me. Not sure how Republicans justify it to themselves.

5) Sarah Smith over Adam Smith, Washington. I want the uncorrupted Justice Dem to take it from the incumbent corporate Dem. Dem on Dem crime, fun to watch.

(Gillum will be fun too if it happens, but i wanted to highlight smaller races)

1) Abrams over Kemp
2) Beto over Cruz
3) Evers over Walker
4) Scholten over Steve King
5) Sinema over McSally

I don't have great confidence in any of those, but think/hope at least Evers and Sinema pull it out and hold out some real hope for Abrams and a tiny little thread for Beto. I just hate Steve King, but it would take a blue tsunami to unseat him.

[B-Fly]

LOL, nice frae. A four out of five match.

[frae]

Hm, that would be a pretty good night. Not sure I'm as optimistic as you on the Senate or the Governor's races. Probably a bit more optimistic than you on the House.

I'll go with Dems +40 in the House, Dems either lose one or hold a zero gain in the Senate (I fear at least one and maybe two of AZ/MO/NV goes red), and on the governors, that the GOP holds Kansas. Otherwise I'm with you on Senate and Governor's races, although I still hold out some desperate hope for Stacey Abrams based on the supercharged black voter engagement in that race.

I wanted to pick Abrams and as you posted this I put her #1 on my wish list of what I really want to happen. I am putting on some blue colored glasses for the senate, but I want to be a fan tonight and I am ok being let down. 50-50 - 52-48 I will not be too upset as long as the Democrats take the house. I love that we are playing offense in these Govenors races, it will definitley be a plus night there but the question is just how many.

Already limped my ass over to the poll and voted. Time to lay down and watch The West Wing to stay positive all day.

[frae]

LOL, nice frae. A four out of five match.

Wow that is hard to do lol. There are hundreds of races and we picked 4/5. Let's hope a few go our way.

[Teenwolf]

1) Abrams over Kemp
2) Beto over Cruz
3) Evers over Walker
4) Scholten over Steve King
5) Sinema over McSally

I don't have great confidence in any of those, but think/hope at least Evers and Sinema pull it out and hold out some real hope for Abrams and a tiny little thread for Beto. I just hate Steve King, but it would take a blue tsunami to unseat him.

Interesting that the Republican party have chastised King and distanced themselves from him in the last week after his supporting comments for various international white supremacists, as well as equating one of them with Republicans. He said "if this were a party in the US, they would be Republicans", regarding nazis.... so they're getting sick of him. Their abandonment of him could be a sign that they see the writing on the wall for him losing. They dont usually attack their own.

[onejayhawk]

I'm going with 27 and 3. The Republicans hold all their Senate seats and pick up ND, MO, and IN. No specifics in the House but a 7 vote Democratic margin. The big news of the night is that the Democrats are +7 in Governorships, including my birth state.

One straight prediction: Cruz 54%, O'Roark 44%, Other 2%. That's a nice moral win for Beto.

J

[revo]

First info from exit polls rolling in from CNN. Doesn't seem too promising for a "Red Wave" comeback, but what do I know?

55% disapprove of Trump, with 47% strongly disapproving
40% of voters said they voted for candidates in the House to oppose Trump, 26% to support Trump
65% made up their minds months ago
16% first time voters in a midterm election (up from 10% in 2014)
41% said health care was the biggest issue. Next was immigration at 23%.
68% said economy is good
35% say they're better off today than 2 years ago

[fuhrdog]

4. JD Scholten over Steve King in the Iowa 4th. A midwestern state that had voted for Obama before. A very conservative district standing up to a blatantly racist candidate.

I pray that this happens and that low life POS King finally gets the boot. Finally a strong candidate to go against him but his base is very loyal. Whites and guns are what matters to them. I'll give it a 40% chance of happening unfortunately but finally there is a punchers chance.

[chancellor]

Found this interesting: https://www.dropbox.com/s/bs618kn939...rtisanship.pdf

[Hornsby]

I pray that this happens and that low life POS King finally gets the boot. Finally a strong candidate to go against him but his base is very loyal. Whites and guns are what matters to them. I'll give it a 40% chance of happening unfortunately but finally there is a punchers chance.

King banned the largest newspaper in the state, the Des Moines Register, from covering his election night event just about an hour ago...what a fucking pig.

[cardboardbox]

I guess I should get my prediction in.... -40 in the house, +1 senate. Tmw republicans will be talking about how they should have stuck to the economy message every second of the day.

[frae]

VA 7th and KY 6th are good early races to watch. Over 40% in and McGrath leads Barr by over 4 points in KY.