2018 Midterm Election Thread

[frae]

The classic version of the 538 model has hit a high mark today for Democratic chances at the house. 86.4-13.6. I keep waiting for that Republican Kavanaugh bounce to really kick in, maybe I was right that the loser of that battle would remain the most fired up to election day.

The Senate also is essentially at its largest split (technically not, but close enough) 82.3 17.7 for the Republicans. No real changes the final number will come down to NV, MO, AZ, FL, IN and then I'll say for the left TN and TX will be interesting to see. If a guy like Bredesen can't win in TN just the party ID democrat is only going to currently allow for wins in some states agaisnt flawed candidates. He has basically run as a right leaning moderate. Beto will just be interesting to see where the numbers come in.

Same Governor races remain toss-up, OH, WI GA, and NV. Alaska and Kansas are the only two races that lean and they are lean R.

Last week tonight did a story highlighting the importance of state AG races and I had mentioned the 538 article on them before. Hopefully, for me, the Democrats can flip a few of those as the power and partisanship both parties are using them for making them quite important.

Best guess as of today will be rosy in the Senate and I'll say net gain 0, Mizzou AZ is blue, NV and ND go red. IN FL stay blue TX TN stay red. The house I'll adjust my pick up a little and say D+34, fundamentals look good, the generic ballot avg is 50.4 - 42, the money is up in all sorts of house races, Democrats have candidates in almost every house race, and they should have a good night in the house.

[onejayhawk]

One week to go. Time for predictions.

RCP averages have the Democrats winning the House with a whopping three vote majority. Republicans gain two seats in the Senate.
538 has Democrats winning the House with a 31 vote majority. Republicans gain one seat in the Senate.
These are the mean numbers of the probability spread.

Literally, everyone expects Democrats to win seats in the House. The question is whether they are +23, which is the number they need for the majority.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

J

[nots]

I think if I were betting, I would take the over on both +31 and +1.

[frae]

I think if I were betting, I would take the over on both +31 and +1.

If I can get an over under at 31 today I’d take the over all day. All the trends are moving hard in the wrong direction for Republicans. I had +32 as my guess even before the latest surge.

The senate number is crazy close. I will go under with my heart. It’s basically what I have outlined a few times. Keep IN FL Missouri. Lose ND. Pickup AZ. Lose nv tx Tn

Edit - I thought your +31 was seats gained not majority, still not sure. But if I can get +31 gain I’ll take the over. A +31 majority is tougher to say over.

[onejayhawk]

I think if I were betting, I would take the over on both +31 and +1.

Good +/- placement. That's a 17 seat majority in the House and four seats in the Senate.

I think I would split those. Republicans have consistently outperformed their polling.

The Iowa University political market is about 8-1 Democrats gain control and the same for Republicans maintaining or increasing their Senate advantage. There is also a market for overall control. It is showing about 2/3 preference for a split Congress, but almost 20% for "Other", primarily a Democratic House and a 50/50 Senate.

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/

J

[frae]

One week to go. Time for predictions.

RCP averages have the Democrats winning the House with a whopping three vote majority. Republicans gain two seats in the Senate.
538 has Democrats winning the House with a 31 vote majority. Republicans gain one seat in the Senate.
These are the mean numbers of the probability spread.

Literally, everyone expects Democrats to win seats in the House. The question is whether they are +23, which is the number they need for the majority.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header

J

Ok checked all 3 538 models for the house.

The median pickup is

Deluxe - +35 230-205 25 seat majority
Classic - +39 234-201 33 seat majority
Lite - +37 232-203 29 seat majority

Your use of plus/minus confused me so I just wanted it more clear what each version shows.

[onejayhawk]

Ok checked all 3 538 models for the house.

The median pickup is

Deluxe - +35 230-205 25 seat majority
Classic - +39 234-201 33 seat majority
Lite - +37 232-203 29 seat majority

Your use of plus/minus confused me so I just wanted it more clear what each version shows.

I think Mean is better in this case. The 538 Senate numbers are 1.2, 0.8, and 0.9 respectively.

Nots over/under are for gains for Senate and House, I think. They very similar to the 538 average, though a touch low for the House.

J

[Sour Masher]

A good breakdown on the birth and rapid growth of a lie on line, spread by right wing media sources, and how such lies can feed violent acts: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/ne...ne/1824633002/

[onejayhawk]

A good breakdown on the birth and rapid growth of a lie on line, spread by right wing media sources, and how such lies can feed violent acts: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/ne...ne/1824633002/

Did you post this in the wrong thread?

J

[Sour Masher]

Did you post this in the wrong thread?

J

Nope. The midterm game plan for the GOP is to talk caravan and kavanaugh. Posting about how a talking point on the former is based on a right wing media fabrication fits here.

[chancellor]

Nope. The midterm game plan for the GOP is to talk caravan and kavanaugh. Posting about how a talking point on the former is based on a right wing media fabrication fits here.

Agree on caravan, disagree on Kavanaugh. I'm very surprised at how few ads bring up the Kavanaugh nomination on the GOP side. Many involving illegal immigration.

Edit to add: And John Tester's campaign just took a big hit as the Libertarian candidate has dropped out under unusual circumstances and has endorsed the GOP candidate.

[B-Fly]

Edit to add: And John Tester's campaign just took a big hit as the Libertarian candidate has dropped out under unusual circumstances and has endorsed the GOP candidate.

538 had Breckenridge's (the libertarian) vote share forecast at 2.6%, Tester at 52.2% and Rosendale at 45.1%. I assume at this stage the libertarian's name will stay on the ballot. Most folks who were planning on voting libertarian were presumably planning to do so as a protest vote, not based on any personal affinity for Breckinridge or belief that he had any shot at victory. So with the normal caveats around polling and projection errors, it wouldn't appear that Breckenridge announcing that he's dropping out and endorsing the Republican would move the needle on this race much (which 538 puts as around 80% likely to go Tester's way, depending on which of their models is used).

[Hornsby]

Agree on caravan, disagree on Kavanaugh. I'm very surprised at how few ads bring up the Kavanaugh nomination on the GOP side. Many involving illegal immigration.

Edit to add: And John Tester's campaign just took a big hit as the Libertarian candidate has dropped out under unusual circumstances and has endorsed the GOP candidate.

Don't Libertarians pride themselves on their rugged individualism...why would they switch over to a candidate that a quitter recommends?

[frae]

There are a lot of stories about Beto supporters harrassing women which kind of weird. The latest polls are out of the 4-6 already (RCP average is 7.0) and moving wider.

Why wouldn't people stand in line to meet Cruz? In any event, they do. With Trump and Cruz in Houston last night, they had massive overflow issues.

J

The last two polls by Emerson (B+) and Quinnipiac (A-) 50-47 51-46 I still don't see a win for Beto but the range is now moving the other way. I think it will be fun to see where it winds up.

[nots]

Don't Libertarians pride themselves on their rugged individualism...why would they switch over to a candidate that a quitter recommends?

Lesser or two evils for me when there isnt a Libertarian in the race, but for others, you are correct, it will be a blank ballot I am sure.

Edit: not to imply Tester is evil—I like him a lot. I think he wins comfortably and will easily over perform the current polls.