2018 Midterm Election Thread

[onejayhawk]

Oh I am sure Rush has done hours of research on individual house races and has poured over the fundraising numbers in the identified toss up districts to come to his shocking conclusion that Republicans will win the house.

84.5 - 15.5 in the house as of this hour with a median pickup of +39. I'll say like Nate has said we can't be sure what these crazy money differences mean with certainty, but more indidvidual donors and signifigant money advantages in the races that matter probably means something. I know Nate's model is factoring that so I'll continue to play it safe and say +32, but again if this is a race where Republicans have a "real" chance than Democrats have a slightly better chance (78.8 - 21.2) to win the Seanate and we have all gone over the needle they have to thread to do that - ND, MO, IN, FL, AZ, NV or have something truly crazy happy in TX or TN. So I guess if you are set on the house being a race I'll have to wait until election night to see.

You say "I'm sure" as if you were anything but sure. You should be sure by now.

While I appreciate your sarcasm, I'm actually hoping they don't. If they do, it'll pretty much convince me that we're no longer in a Kafka novel, but now in full-blown Salem witch trials.

Or Brazil.

Have you seen a form 27B/6? I can't seem to get anything done without one.

J

[chancellor]

Where are you finding any specifics about the allegations that suggest sexual assault? All I can find is a vague account of an unidentified woman of an unwanted sexual advance, not assault. The allegation is he made a move and then immediately stopped when she said no. All from his political opponent. Do you really equate this to the Kavanaugh accusers? Until more info is available about the accuser and the specific allegation, this is nothing. Even if the woman exists, the language used of sexual advance not assault suggest no allegation of a crime. And the accusation makes clear she does not plan to come forward with her allegation of the non-crime she described. There seems to be no there, there.

LOL. Here’s the document reference.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1053095800941752321/photo/1

So, he pushed her and grabbed her after stating he’d been attracted to her. So, what you’re saying, is if he’s attracted to her, he can just grab and push away, and that’s not sexual assault? Really?

The hypocrisy drips.

[Sour Masher]

LOL. Here’s the document reference.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jpelzer/status/1053095800941752321/photo/1

So, he pushed her and grabbed her after stating he’d been attracted to her. So, what you’re saying, is if he’s attracted to her, he can just grab and push away, and that’s not sexual assault? Really?

The hypocrisy drips.

I think this account is far less severe than Ford's. He stopped when she said no. I also think there is a big difference between an alleged, unnamed accuser who refuses to come forward and Ford, who came forward to give her account. You really don't see any differences in these cases?

[Judge Jude]

I see differences, but there is no way to be "all-in" against Kavanaugh and "all-in" for Brown based on the allegations, without being quite partisan.

I don't think there is enough evidence in either case to draw a firm conclusion. also, the allegation against Kavanaugh is when he was age 17 and a girl was 15, the allegation against Brown is when he first got divorced and made by an adult woman. that, too, is a difference.

I think that eventually, it is going to seem unbelievable that US Senators ever quizzed a nominee about "boofing" and "Devil's Triangle" based on a SCOTUS candidate's high school yearbook. but it will take time, I guess.

Brown has been a good Senator, and if I lived in Ohio, this would not be enough to make me vote against him.

[onejayhawk]

Even chancellor said he did not believe either one of them.

J

[Fresno Bob]

Even chancellor said he did not believe either one of them.

J

yet he believes a 2000 year old book of fairy tales

[onejayhawk]

yet he believes a 2000 year old book of fairy tales

Truth is truth and lies are lies.

If you mean the Bible, most is far older than 2000 years.

J

[Teenwolf]

yet he believes a 2000 year old book of fairy tales

He also thinks racial discrimination against black people is a fairly tale. Stated black people's claim of victimhood status is a bigger problem than actual racism.

A sad and pathetic opinion that he's never been taken to task for, and never answered for the last several times I brought it up. Fuck that unaccountability. Typical Trump guy.

[chancellor]

yet he believes a 2000 year old book of fairy tales

So you believe Brown’s accuser, yes? Because in your mind, I’m sure due process means squat.

[onejayhawk]

He also thinks racial discrimination against black people is a fairly tale. Stated black people's claim of victimhood status is a bigger problem than actual racism.

You understand that the first part does not follow from the second, right?

Comparing lowest income black's from the 1970s to present and the Vietnamese boat people for the same period would be an interesting academic paper. It would not be the same as your statement, but it could shed light on the subject.

J

[frae]

Something we haven't spent much time on that 538 only posted a week or so ago is Governors elections. As of today counting the races not up for election and putting all the toss ups and leans to who is favored they have it as 26-24 R's. There are 36 races in play and here are the ones that seem to have some doubt to them.

Florida is actually in the likely Democratic range at 77.4%, but it is Florida and probably the biggest prize in play (TX, CA, and NY are having elections but they aren't close) . Gillum hasn't trailed in a Poll since July so that is why the odds are so high and I think African American enthusiasm will be way up for a midterm election in FL. This is also good news for Nelson in the Senate race.

Alaska is a lean R at 65%, one of those states that doesn't have a lot of polling so not sure what is going on.

KS is lean R at 62% and a few sites have it as a toss up. Most polls i see have the R as a +1 in polls. It would be very interesting to see KS flip to blue.

WI lean D at 62% I have seen Evers up a few points in some Polls and have seen Walker at a +1. For me personally this is the race I most want to win of this group after FL. I disdain Scott Walker and what he has treid to do to teachers unions.

OH is at 59% R and in the toss up range. Lots of money is pouring into this one and it is going to be close.

GA 58.3% for the R Kemp. This race has got some national news lately because of what Kemp has been doing to the voter rolls. I have seen Kemp as +2 in a number of polls, but it will be interesting to see if having an African American on the ticket changes what we define as a likely voter in a GA midterm.

NV - I can only imagine living in NV this year with two true coin flip races going on. Laxalt and Siolack have both led in Polls. 538 has it has a 54% chance in favor of the R's.

I think this will be an interesting follow on election night as Democrats can make soem real gains back.

A secondary point with voter rights and voter rolls becoming an issue in the election 538 also has an article on 8 potential swing Attorney General races. The Democrats have 7 pickup chances while the Republicans have 1. Hopefully my party is finally realizing that these down ticket races are crucial...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/these-8-attorney-general-races-could-make-a-big-difference-to-trumps-agenda/

And finally our house and senate updates as of today

House 85.1 -14.9 for the Democrats

Senate - 78.9 - 21.1 for the Republicans

Things are getting interesting now, can't wait to just sit there election night and enjoy seeing some actual data.

[nots]

Kramer up 16 in latest poll.
I think the Dems best chance is either Texas or Tennessee. The ND ship seems to have sailed

[frae]

I think the best realistic result is hold everything but ND and win AZ and maybe NV. TX based on demos and polling seems unlikely but I’ll at least say Beto’s candidacy is unique and maybe that changes who votes, but I won’t bet on it. TN I’ve at least seen the one Vandy poll having Bredesen ahead but it seems like an outlier. For me I want 30+ in the house and I’d walk away happy with a 0 net gain in the senate. This was never a good map and getting 6 more years in MT, IN, WV, and hopefully Mizzou isn’t so bad.

[onejayhawk]

What about Beto is unique? He comes across very same old, same old.

His commercials are downright boring. Campaigning against school vouchers does not seem like a winning strategy but Cruz owns him on immigration.

J

[frae]

What about Beto is unique? He comes across very same old, same old.

His commercials are downright boring. Campaigning against school vouchers does not seem like a winning strategy but Cruz owns him on immigration.

J

I am not going to convince you so I won't try very hard, but he raised $38 million dollars in the third quarter. If you don't think his message is resonating with Democrats I don't know what to tell you.