Democratic Party 2017 and beyond

[B-Fly]

I thought you were a John Edwards guy pretty early. Am I misremembering?

Not in 2008, no. I supported Obama very early on. In 2004, I thought Edwards seemed like a stronger general election candidate than John Kerry and therefore supported him vis-à-vis Kerry.

[nots]

Not in 2008, no. I supported Obama very early on. In 2004, I thought Edwards seemed like a stronger general election candidate than John Kerry and therefore supported him vis-à-vis Kerry.

Ok. Been a long time.....my mistake.

[DMT]

he might be more charismatic than the rest of the democrat field, but that really is a low bar to clear.

Well it's hard for a baby-killer to put on the charm to you centrists, no?

[swampdragon]

Yes, being Obama-like as a candidate is a very good thing, regardless of skin color. And it's kind of absurd for you to suggest that the title is the point, when the actual piece clarifies what they mean:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-2020-democratic-primary-995353

He's the kind of candidate who could potentially energize and unite many segments of an incredibly diverse Democratic Party: young and old, moderate and progressive, men and women, white and non-white, white collar and blue collar. He's a very effective communicator who is positive and hopeful and who can articulate his positions and views in ways that are respectful of differing viewpoints.

I am, in fact, intrigued by him as a possible candidate for a lot of the same reasons I gravitated pretty early to Obama.

calling onejay absurd is not worth your time

BUT - I do have mixed feeling about the electability of Beto - ideologically I am happy with his positions but is he too progressive for the centrist democrat.

[B-Fly]

calling onejay absurd is not worth your time

BUT - I do have mixed feeling about the electability of Beto - ideologically I am happy with his positions but is he too progressive for the centrist democrat.

I don't think he could have come as close in Texas as he did without being able to appeal well beyond the progressive left wing of the Democratic Party. I can't like to YouTube from the office, but the viral video of his response to a conservative white male's town hall question about the NFL flag/anthem protests shows a guy who can stay true to his values without demeaning or belittling folks who have strong contrary feelings on the issue. That's important to me as a pretty mainstream Democrat, and I think to a lot of centrists and independents as well.

[frae]

I don't think he could have come as close in Texas as he did without being able to appeal well beyond the progressive left wing of the Democratic Party. I can't like to YouTube from the office, but the viral video of his response to a conservative white male's town hall question about the NFL flag/anthem protests shows a guy who can stay true to his values without demeaning or belittling folks who have strong contrary feelings on the issue. That's important to me as a pretty mainstream Democrat, and I think to a lot of centrists and independents as well.

I can't embed it from work, but I can google search and copy the link from the site that is blocked

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGWmh-maevk

[TS Garp]

I don't think he could have come as close in Texas as he did without being able to appeal well beyond the progressive left wing of the Democratic Party. I can't like to YouTube from the office, but the viral video of his response to a conservative white male's town hall question about the NFL flag/anthem protests shows a guy who can stay true to his values without demeaning or belittling folks who have strong contrary feelings on the issue. That's important to me as a pretty mainstream Democrat, and I think to a lot of centrists and independents as well.

Yeah, that video is great and was the thing that sent him soaring to another level. His ability to raise massive amounts of money shouldn't underestimated, either, but Swampdragon makes a good point. It seems like the more moderate democrats generally did better in the midterms, whereas the truly progressive candidates had a more difficult time. Of course, you have to really dig into that in terms of where they were competing, how they did compared to democrats in previous years, etc. I do think that Democrats are dying for another Obama to walk through the door and Beto is the closest we've seen, so there's a lot of momentum behind him, but whether he lives up to that comparison (which will continue to be made, whether it's fair or not) is a more complicated question.

[Teenwolf]

B-Fly, swampdragon, TS Garp... you're all wrong about the progressives vs. centrists in the midterms... Progressives did much better than their centrist counterparts in general. But I recognize that's been the common narrative in mainstream media, Politico and such, so I'm not surprised that's the common perception.

Governors races. Tester is much more progressive than Donnelly, and outperformed him bigtime... same with 2 other losers I cant remember the names of... the only example that fits the popular narrative is Joe Manchin (and now Sinema also), but most other races with progressives saw bigger swings than races with moderates. B-Fly responded once to me saying this by simply stating "you're wrong", but it doesn't really matter. 2020 approaches, and we'll see soon enough.

[Teenwolf]

Also, I have a very different take on why Beto and Gillim each lost. Beto did not have an attack mode. If he was willing to be selectively vicious, I think he could have pushed over the top.

Gillum abandoned his progressive stance after the primary. Made appearances with Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, Cory Booker, etc, as well as pivoted from talking about Medicare for all to talking about supporting Obamacare expansion or whatever... so I think both candidates tried to play it safe in some ways, and each paid for it.

[B-Fly]

B-Fly responded once to me saying this by simply stating "you're wrong", but it doesn't really matter.

LOL, to be fair, I had already posted my more detailed analysis and was therefore joking in that quick reply to a post you ended with something along the lines of "Tell me if I'm wrong."

And the names you were searching for are Heitkamp and McCaskill.

[B-Fly]

B-Fly, swampdragon, TS Garp... you're all wrong about the progressives vs. centrists in the midterms... Progressives did much better than their centrist counterparts in general. But I recognize that's been the common narrative in mainstream media, Politico and such, so I'm not surprised that's the common perception.

Governors races. Tester is much more progressive than Donnelly, and outperformed him bigtime... same with 2 other losers I cant remember the names of... the only example that fits the popular narrative is Joe Manchin (and now Sinema also), but most other races with progressives saw bigger swings than races with moderates. B-Fly responded once to me saying this by simply stating "you're wrong", but it doesn't really matter. 2020 approaches, and we'll see soon enough.

Also, I think this analysis misses the lede. Where the Democrats did the best by far was in the House, and what they did in the House was flip lots of districts that had been red for a pretty long time by running moderate candidates who they felt could win over independents and moderate Republicans in those districts. The strong consensus coming out of the midterms is that that decision - to compete everywhere by finding and promoting Democratic candidates who could appeal to the voters in those specific districts, including many right-leaning districts, paid off big time.

[Teenwolf]

Also, I think this analysis misses the lede. Where the Democrats did the best by far was in the House, and what they did in the House was flip lots of districts that had been red for a pretty long time by running moderate candidates who they felt could win over independents and moderate Republicans in those districts. The strong consensus coming out of the midterms is that that decision - to compete everywhere by finding and promoting Democratic candidates who could appeal to the voters in those specific districts, including many right-leaning districts, paid off big time.

Pretty sure the biggest house district swing in the country was Ojeda's 36 pts, but again, tell me if I'm wrong!

[In the Corn]

Also, I think this analysis misses the lede. Where the Democrats did the best by far was in the House, and what they did in the House was flip lots of districts that had been red for a pretty long time by running moderate candidates who they felt could win over independents and moderate Republicans in those districts. The strong consensus coming out of the midterms is that that decision - to compete everywhere by finding and promoting Democratic candidates who could appeal to the voters in those specific districts, including many right-leaning districts, paid off big time.

This!

What's wrong with incremental change. The vast majority of people are in the middle. I voted for the Dem for the House because he was a moderate Democrat. When parties try to hit home runs they usually strike out. Hit singles and move runners around.

[Teenwolf]

Its funny to me that the right wing and mainstream "left wing" media are both doing everything they can to discredit progressives. There was an interesting clip of Fox News bring up Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over 30 times in 24 hours, host after host. The energy right now in the media is pretty strongly behind attacking all progressives. I really think it works in their favor, as progressives used to be laughed off, now they're vilified and talked about endlessly. As Trump showed, free media is good, whether the coverage is positive or negative. 70% of the country now supports Medicare for all, including 52% of Republicans! Millenials across the country supported Democrats by a 2-1 margin, and if you look at the polling data, millenials are radically left on issues. Probably further left than me. Run towards those voters, they wont be dead in 4 or 8 years, they're the future of the party.

[B-Fly]

Pretty sure the biggest house district swing in the country was Ojeda's 36 pts, but again, tell me if I'm wrong!

He didn't win. The biggest swing from a red district to a blue district was the NJ 11th, right next door to me, which swung from GOP +19 to Dem +13. The candidate was a relatively moderate navy pilot/prosecutor/mom, Mikie Sherrill. That basic strategy flipped almost the entire NJ congressional delegation.