Democratic Party 2017 and beyond

[Teenwolf]

I am pretty clearly not a Ted Cruz fan, but saying his $23M is from Super PAC money is simply not true. $14M is from individual donors, both large and small.
https://www.opensecrets.org/members-...?cid=N00033085

Thanks for the reference point. How much from individual contributions under $200?

You think his ads have been smart or stupid? Thanks.

[nots]

The answer to your questions were in the link I posted, but here goes:
O’Rourke :
59% of funds come from individual large contributions (over $200)
41% individual contributions under $200
<1% PAC money (about $54k)
Cruz:
33% large individual contributions
27% small individual
4% PAC
35% Other ( no idea what that means)
Cruz is a douche and next to Hung Jury Menedez, there is no one I would rather see lose. But we can’t Trump up (pun intended) bogus facts to make the case.
As to your second question: I haven’t seen any of his ads, nor do I hope to, but I am pretty confident in saying I wouldn’t like them. I don’t know what that has to do with me correcting your post.

[Teenwolf]

The answer to your questions were in the link I posted, but here goes:
O’Rourke :
59% of funds come from individual large contributions (over $200)
41% individual contributions under $200
<1% PAC money (about $54k)
Cruz:
33% large individual contributions
27% small individual
4% PAC
35% Other ( no idea what that means)
Cruz is a douche and next to Hung Jury Menedez, there is no one I would rather see lose. But we can’t Trump up (pun intended) bogus facts to make the case.
As to your second question: I haven’t seen any of his ads, nor do I hope to, but I am pretty confident in saying I wouldn’t like them. I don’t know what that has to do with me correcting your post.

I knew the answers were in the link, I'm just short on time to post (on my phone at work). Thanks for doing the work.

So you have "no idea" who Ted Cruz's biggest source of campaign funds come from. Interesting. I guess we'll find out soon, since the SCOTUS case was just decided that all dark money in campaigns needs to be disclosed! I'm sure we can agree that's excellent news.

[B-Fly]

FiveThirtyEight posted their latest 2020 Democratic Primary snake draft, and as fantasy sports guys, we at least gotta love the format.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/

Women were selected with the top three picks, and Beto O'Rourke and Michael Avenatti cracked the top ten. Oprah, The Rock and Michelle Obama were among the sillier later round picks.

[Sour Masher]

FiveThirtyEight posted their latest 2020 Democratic Primary snake draft, and as fantasy sports guys, we at least gotta love the format.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/

Women were selected with the top three picks, and Beto O'Rourke and Michael Avenatti cracked the top ten. Oprah, The Rock and Michelle Obama were among the sillier later round picks.

Thanks for posting this. It is a fun format. Interesting convo. Although, the fact that Avenatti cracked the top 10 is depressing to me. I'd take some of the "sillier" late rounders over him.

[B-Fly]

Thanks for posting this. It is a fun format. Interesting convo. Although, the fact that Avenatti cracked the top 10 is depressing to me. I'd take some of the "sillier" late rounders over him.

Yes. It's worth noting that the draft participants didn't seem enthused about Avenatti being a consideration for the Democratic Party nomination. They just felt that the world/country is in a place where it couldn't be ruled out. Which is sad.

[Teenwolf]

Yes. It's worth noting that the draft participants didn't seem enthused about Avenatti being a consideration for the Democratic Party nomination. They just felt that the world/country is in a place where it couldn't be ruled out. Which is sad.

I think they conflate "anti-Trumpism" with being a presidential candidate, since that's the path Trump took to the WH.

I currently handicap it as:

#1 - Kirsten Gillibrand - as Orrin Hatch would say "she looks very pleasing"... I think her good looks will be accentuated by her running to the progressive left. She's been surprisingly aggressive.

#2 Bernie - you're gonna be hearing "too old" a lot, and it might work... I feel Gillibrand has the edge because she's a fresh face.

#3 E. Warren - she's a more likely VP for the others looking to elevate their progressive bona fides.

[TS Garp]

I think they conflate "anti-Trumpism" with being a presidential candidate, since that's the path Trump took to the WH.

I currently handicap it as:

#1 - Kirsten Gillibrand - as Orrin Hatch would say "she looks very pleasing"... I think her good looks will be accentuated by her running to the progressive left. She's been surprisingly aggressive.

#2 Bernie - you're gonna be hearing "too old" a lot, and it might work... I feel Gillibrand has the edge because she's a fresh face.

#3 E. Warren - she's a more likely VP for the others looking to elevate their progressive bona fides.

Probably about right although I'd add Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and also Beto O'Rourke, who may have more momentum than anyone. I also think someone else from outside of politics will emerge, such as Howard Schultz.

[OaklandA's]

Probably about right although I'd add Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and also Beto O'Rourke, who may have more momentum than anyone. I also think someone else from outside of politics will emerge, such as Howard Schultz.

I think Amy Klobuchar should also be on the list. Her personality is kind of the opposite of Trump's, and I think that might be effective.

[Teenwolf]

FiveThirtyEight posted their latest 2020 Democratic Primary snake draft, and as fantasy sports guys, we at least gotta love the format.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/

Women were selected with the top three picks, and Beto O'Rourke and Michael Avenatti cracked the top ten. Oprah, The Rock and Michelle Obama were among the sillier later round picks.

Curious who your top 5 contenders are. Not who you want, but who you predict as most likely to win the nomination.

[frae]

I thought it was interesting too. Top 5 contenders with nothing to do with who I want...

1 Elizabeth Warren - She has some name recognition. Will get the Bernie people with some of her liberal cred, but is also not Bernie so she is actually electable.

2 Kamala Harris - More of an unknown but getting more name recognition. Also can get the base but will not sound so far left where it is too much of an issue.

3. Cory Booker - He has a reputation as being good on the trail and I think the party will not put up an old white man this time.

4. Kristen Gillibrand - She's been in the senate for almost 8 years so experience won't be a problem for her and I think she can play to the middle enough.

5. Amy Klobuchar - She doesn't seem electric and she won't be what the base of the party initially wants in a primary, but she is a winner in the midwest and maybe she wins Iowa and gets momentum?

I honestly see now way it is Bernie and I don't think Biden can win either. I like Biden a lot, but I don't think the primary crowd elects him. If Beto loses to Cruz maybe he does run I don't know. That said it was only 4 years ago we nominated Hillary and for as much as the right hates her both she and Bill are pretty moderate pro business Democrats. So maybe I am wrong and we look at one of those purple state (Hickenlooper) or red staet (Bullock) governors. I just want to win and I have no clue right now who gives us the best chance at that. I'll be thrilled with a super moderate Democrate just to get us back to sanity.

3.

[swampdragon]

Curious who your top 5 contenders are. Not who you want, but who you predict as most likely to win the nomination.

1 - Hickenlooper (and Trump will call him chicken-pooper, pretty funny huh)
2 - Booker
3 - Kaine
4 - O'Rourke
5 - Warren

[B-Fly]

Curious who your top 5 contenders are. Not who you want, but who you predict as most likely to win the nomination.

Kamala Harris
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders
John Hickenlooper

Ultimately, I think it depends who throws their hat in the ring and how long they hold out. Warren and Sanders would presumably split the progressive vote, and one will ultimately have to give way. I think Harris, Booker and Biden would all be trying to compete for establishment and African American support, and I think Booker will ultimately be the odd one out, there. Hickenlooper is the Democratic version of John Kasich - the guy who will most appeal to people who are put off by perceived hyper-partisanship. Biden could get a nice head start in Iowa and do well in the industrial Midwest.

[Teenwolf]

Kamala Harris
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders
John Hickenlooper

Ultimately, I think it depends who throws their hat in the ring and how long they hold out. Warren and Sanders would presumably split the progressive vote, and one will ultimately have to give way. I think Harris, Booker and Biden would all be trying to compete for establishment and African American support, and I think Booker will ultimately be the odd one out, there. Hickenlooper is the Democratic version of John Kasich - the guy who will most appeal to people who are put off by perceived hyper-partisanship. Biden could get a nice head start in Iowa and do well in the industrial Midwest.

Interesting. One of my favourite commentators (Sam Seder) is saying the same thing, and it looks very likely that it will be Warren who runs, and Bernie acting as a major campaign booster/head cheerleader... it's a pretty strong strategy, if Bernie commits to that. Warren is gearing up in a more public fashion than Bernie right now.

I hope you're right about Harris, Booker, Biden all competing for the establishment voters, and it will depend how long it takes for the establishment to coalesce around 1 of them to determine their likelihood of beating Sanders/Warren/Gillibrand, or whoever is running a populist progressive campaign. Progressive caucus will help. They should get at least 7-8, but as many as 12-14, and possible others will join.

[onejayhawk]

Kamala Harris
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Bernie Sanders
John Hickenlooper

Ultimately, I think it depends who throws their hat in the ring and how long they hold out. Warren and Sanders would presumably split the progressive vote, and one will ultimately have to give way. I think Harris, Booker and Biden would all be trying to compete for establishment and African American support, and I think Booker will ultimately be the odd one out, there. Hickenlooper is the Democratic version of John Kasich - the guy who will most appeal to people who are put off by perceived hyper-partisanship. Biden could get a nice head start in Iowa and do well in the industrial Midwest.

What does it say when three of the front runners are past 70 and the other two are neophytes?

I think Hickenlooper has a future in national politics, but he is just a 2nd term governor, despite being 66 years old. Kamala Harris is no Barack Obama. To be in this converasation she should be.

It now seems clear the Democrats badly overplayed their hand by bring accusations against Kavanaugh that they could not substantiate. Just how badly will the fiasco hurt the Democrats in November?

J