Democratic Party 2017 and beyond

[revo]

With the Dems showing a mounting progressive insurgency, have the odds increased of a Kamala Harris, Tammy Duckworth or Cory Booker head on the 2020 ticket rather than a Joe Biden (or Mike Bloomberg)?

And talk about off-kilter polling numbers:
Rep. Joe Crowley of Queens, the 4th ranking Democratic House member, lost to 28-year old political neophyte Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Just two weeks ago, polls had Crowley up by 35 points.

[B-Fly]

With the Dems showing a mounting progressive insurgency, have the odds increased of a Kamala Harris, Tammy Duckworth or Cory Booker head on the 2020 ticket rather than a Joe Biden (or Mike Bloomberg)?

And talk about off-kilter polling numbers:
Rep. Joe Crowley of Queens, the 4th ranking Democratic House member, lost to 28-year old political neophyte Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Just two weeks ago, polls had Crowley up by 35 points.

Yesterday was a pretty good day for progressive challengers to mainstream Democrats (particularly the Ocasio-Cortez stunner), but overall the mainstream traditional Democrats supported by the party powers-that-be have done quite well through primary season overall.

[Moonlight J]

Ocasio-Cortez was out-spent 10:1 and still won. That is tremendous!

[Teenwolf]

Yesterday was a pretty good day for progressive challengers to mainstream Democrats (particularly the Ocasio-Cortez stunner), but overall the mainstream traditional Democrats supported by the party powers-that-be have done quite well through primary season overall.

I follow Young Turks quite a bit, and they were pushing Ocasio-Cortez hard. It sounds like you think it's a fluke that a candidate who was outspent 5-1 (some say 5, some 10)... who focused on all of the progressive "Bernie" platform issues... took her populist message (digital + door-to-door focusing on non-voters, working poor, etc.) to a 15 pt win over a 10-term party teet-suckler, 4th ranking Dem Crowley... you think it's a fluke? I think it's all a perfect blueprint for how to take back the WH in 2020. I still remember you endorsing John Edwards in 2008, so while I highly respect your political opinion, I do think you are sometimes spectacularly wrong, and suspect this might be another instance like that.

You should watch any of the clips of her in interviews. Most are easily deflected attacks from MSM (she shreds Poppy Harlow's attempts to create conflict), except for Morning Joe, which turned into a total lovefest, but I found it all incredibly inspiring. I love that Ocasio-Cortez shows you that Bernie's messages can be inspiring when spoken by anybody who believes in the platform.

Brent Welder is the next Bernie endorsed candidate to possibly steal a seat for the progressives in Kansas, as well as Cynthia Nixon in NY seeming likely to take out Cuomo. By the way, Justice Democrats (not the only progressive group running candidates, but one of the big ones) already have 12 candidates (including Ocasio-Cortez) that have won their primaries. I think it'll be a strong progressive caucus after 2018, maybe 12-20 members, and will help to push towards a more progressive agenda for the party in 2020.

[Judge Jude]

"I still remember you endorsing John Edwards in 2008, so while I highly respect your political opinion, I do think you are sometimes spectacularly wrong, and suspect this might be another instance like that."

"Cynthia Nixon in NY seeming likely to take out Cuomo."

............

if you hit this one, we will call you Nostradamus.

Ocasio-Cortez won a race with something like 10 percent of eligible voters showing up to vote in a district where most people can walk to the polls - but didn't. if that translates into beating a statewide machine like Cuomo's - you indeed will be onto something.

[umjewman]

"I still remember you endorsing John Edwards in 2008, so while I highly respect your political opinion, I do think you are sometimes spectacularly wrong, and suspect this might be another instance like that."

"Cynthia Nixon in NY seeming likely to take out Cuomo."

............

if you hit this one, we will call you Nostradamus.

Ocasio-Cortez won a race with something like 10 percent of eligible voters showing up to vote in a district where most people can walk to the polls - but didn't. if that translates into beating a statewide machine like Cuomo's - you indeed will be onto something.

Yeah, I'm not sure where you're getting that Nixon is "likely" to take out Cuomo. I mean, it certainly could happen but that seems very unlikely at this point.

[Teenwolf]

"I still remember you endorsing John Edwards in 2008, so while I highly respect your political opinion, I do think you are sometimes spectacularly wrong, and suspect this might be another instance like that."

"Cynthia Nixon in NY seeming likely to take out Cuomo."

............

if you hit this one, we will call you Nostradamus.

Ocasio-Cortez won a race with something like 10 percent of eligible voters showing up to vote in a district where most people can walk to the polls - but didn't. if that translates into beating a statewide machine like Cuomo's - you indeed will be onto something.

I think Nixon has the perfect storm. She's getting a ton of media attention on the late night circuit, which is pretty unusual for an upstart campaign to get that kind of attention, guest on Stephen Colbert, The View, etc.. that's the massive baked-in advantage of her celebrity. She's promoting the same populist agenda that turns out non-voters... I admit that these party insiders are hard to oust when their progressive opponents refuse corporate PAC money. But there has been a wave of progressives winning despite these disadvantages, so Nixon should have a better shot than most.

Welder in Kansas is trying to scrape up $80K for his upset win. I think he'll get there.

Did anybody hear about Joe Crowley's debate strategy against Ocasio-Cortez? 3 debates. 1st one gets crushed. 2nd one... Sends a surrogate to debate in his place!!!.... Third one gets crushed again in person. What a loser. Their time is short.

[B-Fly]

I follow Young Turks quite a bit, and they were pushing Ocasio-Cortez hard. It sounds like you think it's a fluke that a candidate who was outspent 5-1 (some say 5, some 10)... who focused on all of the progressive "Bernie" platform issues... took her populist message (digital + door-to-door focusing on non-voters, working poor, etc.) to a 15 pt win over a 10-term party teet-suckler, 4th ranking Dem Crowley... you think it's a fluke? I think it's all a perfect blueprint for how to take back the WH in 2020. I still remember you endorsing John Edwards in 2008, so while I highly respect your political opinion, I do think you are sometimes spectacularly wrong, and suspect this might be another instance like that.

You should watch any of the clips of her in interviews. Most are easily deflected attacks from MSM (she shreds Poppy Harlow's attempts to create conflict), except for Morning Joe, which turned into a total lovefest, but I found it all incredibly inspiring. I love that Ocasio-Cortez shows you that Bernie's messages can be inspiring when spoken by anybody who believes in the platform.

Brent Welder is the next Bernie endorsed candidate to possibly steal a seat for the progressives in Kansas, as well as Cynthia Nixon in NY seeming likely to take out Cuomo. By the way, Justice Democrats (not the only progressive group running candidates, but one of the big ones) already have 12 candidates (including Ocasio-Cortez) that have won their primaries. I think it'll be a strong progressive caucus after 2018, maybe 12-20 members, and will help to push towards a more progressive agenda for the party in 2020.

You read way too much into my one sentence. I did not say Ocasio-Cortez's win was a fluke. I don't think it was a fluke. I think it was case-specific. We're talking about one of the most solidly economic left, racially diverse districts in the US, where an incredibly talented, charismatic and hard-working young woman ran a great campaign that connected incredibly well with her constituents. I cried happy tears over her victory video myself and I have no problem with Ocasio-Cortez, her campaign, her platform or her victory. I'm thrilled. I wouldn't remotely despair if Nixon defeated Cuomo either, but I think that's a far more difficult hill to climb in a statewide race. I don't hate Cuomo or Nixon -- I'm actually pretty content with either one. That's what largely differentiates me from the far left. I think the Democratic Party is generally where it needs to be on key issues and that the debate points within the Party are healthy and reasonable. Whether the candidate who emerges from a Democratic primary is more-or-less a Democratic "centrist", from the Democratic "mainstream" or from the "progressive left", they're generally going to have my support and my vote. From a best-chance-of-winning perspective, it depends on the candidate and the race. A winning message in the Bronx and Queens is often going to be different from a winning message on Long Island or Central New Jersey or Texas or the various "swing states" critical to a presidential election. None of that paints Ocasio-Cortez's win as a "fluke". I'm thrilled with Ocasio-Cortez.

[B-Fly]

I still remember you endorsing John Edwards in 2008, so while I highly respect your political opinion, I do think you are sometimes spectacularly wrong, and suspect this might be another instance like that.

And FWIW, this is not at all true. I endorsed Edwards in the 2004 primaries. I thought he would connect with voters better than Kerry. I endorsed Obama pretty early on in the 2008 primary race. I endorsed Clinton pretty late in the 2016 primary race, and told everyone in doing so how torn I was between her and Sanders because I thought both had a lot to like from a platform/qualifications standpoint as well as quite a bit to worry about from an electability standpoint.

[B-Fly]

I know most of y'all don't care, but I pulled up my Facebook post from February 4, 2016, endorsing Hillary Clinton shortly before the NJ primary vote, without any enmity toward Sanders:

I've been on the fence between Sanders and Clinton. In 2008, I broke early for Obama, well before the Iowa Caucus, because I thought he brought the best overall combination of inspiration, progressivism, pragmatism, intelligence, policy knowledge, integrity and electability. All of those things are important to me, and with Sanders and Clinton those attributes are more clearly split in my mind. But just because I think Sanders has the nod on inspiration, progressivism and integrity in a head-to-head with Clinton this time around doesn't mean I believe Clinton lacks those attributes. She has and will advance progressive causes and nominate progressive justices, and the vast majority of the attacks on her integrity are overblown and slime-drenched by her haters. I'm immensely impressed with her intelligence, policy knowledge and pragmatism, and while she doesn't match Obama's soaring oratory or Sanders' righteous zeal, I'm coming off the fence because of inspiration. You see, there are two incredibly important women in my life, one 7 and one 70, who I know are truly and deeply inspired about Secretary Clinton's opportunity to serve as president of the United States. For my Marlee and my Mommy...#imwithher

Obviously the candidate I came off the fence to support lost. Whether Bernie would have won in 2016, we'll never know. If I had it to do over again, I'd probably take the shot with Sanders out of hope that he'd have connected better with the swing voters in the swing states. I still think Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would have been fine presidents - a lot better than what we've got now.

Edit to add: I also saw that on March 4, 2016, that I promoted Elizabeth Warren for Hillary Clinton's running mate. I have no antipathy toward progressives.

[Judge Jude]

fwiw, I'd like to see (Cynthia) Nixon knock off Cuomo. the whiff of backroom dealings is very, very ripe with him. poor guy's closest pals keep getting indicted and/or convicted. some people are just unlucky

[Teenwolf]

You read way too much into my one sentence. I did not say Ocasio-Cortez's win was a fluke. I don't think it was a fluke. I think it was case-specific. We're talking about one of the most solidly economic left, racially diverse districts in the US, where an incredibly talented, charismatic and hard-working young woman ran a great campaign that connected incredibly well with her constituents. I cried happy tears over her victory video myself and I have no problem with Ocasio-Cortez, her campaign, her platform or her victory. I'm thrilled. I wouldn't remotely despair if Nixon defeated Cuomo either, but I think that's a far more difficult hill to climb in a statewide race. I don't hate Cuomo or Nixon -- I'm actually pretty content with either one. That's what largely differentiates me from the far left. I think the Democratic Party is generally where it needs to be on key issues and that the debate points within the Party are healthy and reasonable. Whether the candidate who emerges from a Democratic primary is more-or-less a Democratic "centrist", from the Democratic "mainstream" or from the "progressive left", they're generally going to have my support and my vote. From a best-chance-of-winning perspective, it depends on the candidate and the race. A winning message in the Bronx and Queens is often going to be different from a winning message on Long Island or Central New Jersey or Texas or the various "swing states" critical to a presidential election. None of that paints Ocasio-Cortez's win as a "fluke". I'm thrilled with Ocasio-Cortez.

Thanks for all the detailed responses, I was premature in jumping to conclusions. I'm glad you were so overjoyed with Ocasio-Cortez, I really hope that her media blitz resonates with the public in the way Bernie's primary campaign did a couple of years ago, leading to the most progressive candidate possible in 2020. She was shown a clip of Sean Hannity's big board showing all of her evil platform positions, and she laughed and said "I'm going to use that as a web ad. It's so succinct." You cannot take them down when they believe in their message.

The thing that differentiates you from the progressive left (not FAR left... there's nothing extremist about the platform, seems weird to keep seeing "far left" when the far right are actual NAZIS and the "far left" are demanding affordable housing, college, and healthcare, but I digress) is that you don't see a problem with the extreme corruption of Cuomo. Now I'm not familiar with all the details, but isn't Cuomo like the Michael Cohen of the Dems, the backroom "fixer"? Doesn't he assemble a "bi-partisan" committee to further the Republican agenda? Something along those lines anyway? I think there's a world of difference between Nixon and Cuomo, and I think saying that you're fine either way shows you seem to value Democratic party unity as your highest priority, the actual issues each candidate stands for are all secondary. Am I wrong?

[B-Fly]

Thanks for all the detailed responses, I was premature in jumping to conclusions. I'm glad you were so overjoyed with Ocasio-Cortez, I really hope that her media blitz resonates with the public in the way Bernie's primary campaign did a couple of years ago, leading to the most progressive candidate possible in 2020. She was shown a clip of Sean Hannity's big board showing all of her evil platform positions, and she laughed and said "I'm going to use that as a web ad. It's so succinct." You cannot take them down when they believe in their message.

The thing that differentiates you from the progressive left (not FAR left... there's nothing extremist about the platform, seems weird to keep seeing "far left" when the far right are actual NAZIS and the "far left" are demanding affordable housing, college, and healthcare, but I digress) is that you don't see a problem with the extreme corruption of Cuomo. Now I'm not familiar with all the details, but isn't Cuomo like the Michael Cohen of the Dems, the backroom "fixer"? Doesn't he assemble a "bi-partisan" committee to further the Republican agenda? Something along those lines anyway? I think there's a world of difference between Nixon and Cuomo, and I think saying that you're fine either way shows you seem to value Democratic party unity as your highest priority, the actual issues each candidate stands for are all secondary. Am I wrong?

Thanks for calling me out on the use of "far left". I wholly agree with your point and the parenthetical. Well stated.

On Andrew Cuomo, I think he's a bare-knuckles political brawler, but I think the cries of corruption are unfair. Backroom fixing, in terms of political arm twisting, isn't corrupt. I think he's generally been effective at implementing some pretty progressive stuff in NYS, and his take-no-prisoners approach has helped facilitate a lot of that. I'm torn on whether we need a bare-knuckles brawler like Cuomo to take down Trump, or if we have a better shot taking him down with someone who is more of an earnest/beyond-reproach type. Not sure.

And that takes me to your final question. You're partially right and partially wrong. I see the gap between the Democrats and Republicans, and particularly Trump's Republican Party, because he clearly controls it now, as much wider and more material than the intra-Democratic Party gap between, say, Cuomo and Nixon. So yes, my top priority is electing Democrats because that's the only way to stop/slow the Trump/Republican regime. I think the week that was in the US Supreme Court, including gerrymandering and labor unions and immigration and now the Kennedy retirement, hammered home how critical it is for everyone within the spectrum of Democratic/Liberal/Progressive to just win general elections - the Presidency, the Senate, the House, governorships, state legislatures, etc. But I think we can win with a good mix of progressive candidates and traditional candidates, the ideologically pure and the political operatives, the conciliators and the fighters. Different emphases, all within the Democratic umbrella, are best suited for different races in different places representing different constituencies, and I think we need to be open to all of it, have our in-house debates passionately but respectfully, and rally round the Democratic flag come the general election regardless of who wins the primaries.

[Lurker765]

B-Fly thanks for posting in the political threads. Sometimes these threads are difficult to read, but your posts always seem honest and not personal or trolly. I like reading the political views of other people, but sometimes facebook or even the Sports Bar makes me question why I try to see what other people are thinking when it devolves into the quagmire.

[Teenwolf]

What do you know, the Dems are mounting an attack against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez! What a shock! What happened to the whole unity thing? Ocasio-Cortez went from close to zero to 700K twitter followers already, so hopefully her newfound celebrity can withstand this attack. So pathetic... cheating, and lying (saying it would be fraud to remove himself as the Working Families Party nominee when the WFP asked him to do it!)... I hope Crowley gets obliterated. I wonder how many of his corporate donors back him now after he was so thoroughly embarrassed once already. Will they throw good money after bad?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...-to-split-vote