President Donald Trump

[revo]

What a day for this fuckwad:
- he floats delaying the election where he's getting obliterated in the polls because it's "unsafe".....but yet he's forcing my kids to go to school
- Herman Cain dies of Coronavirus after contracting it at his Tulsa rally
- 2nd qtr GDP shows a -32.9% decline, which makes the Great Depression look like a carnival

[DMT]

What a day for this fuckwad:
- he floats delaying the election where he's getting obliterated in the polls because it's "unsafe".....but yet he's forcing my kids to go to school
- Herman Cain dies of Coronavirus after contracting it at his Tulsa rally
- 2nd qtr GDP shows a -32.9% decline, which makes the Great Depression look like a carnival

And the market shrugs.

[Sour Masher]

And the market shrugs.

I don't know how much longer WS can whistle by this graveyard. I am not reallocating my 401k, cuz I really don't know the answer and I'm long off from retirement, but common sense says a collapse has to come. Growth stocks especially have been crazy. My value stocks re way down, but the growth stocks keep climbing. And look at Tesla--it is nuts.

[chancellor]

I don't know how much longer WS can whistle by this graveyard. I am not reallocating my 401k, cuz I really don't know the answer and I'm long off from retirement, but common sense says a collapse has to come. Growth stocks especially have been crazy. My value stocks re way down, but the growth stocks keep climbing. And look at Tesla--it is nuts.

I'm reallocating come August for the first time in many, many years. I'll move out of all my mutual funds; my only exposure to the market will be two consumer goods companies I've held seemingly forever. I think the market's going to get hammered shortly before or after the election.

[Sour Masher]

I'm reallocating come August for the first time in many, many years. I'll move out of all my mutual funds; my only exposure to the market will be two consumer goods companies I've held seemingly forever. I think the market's going to get hammered shortly before or after the election.

I mean, it has to be coming. If Warren is put in a position to affect finance, I'm sure that won't help the markets, but that would just be the excuse markets would need to make a move that seem inevitable regardless sooner or later, especially in growth stocks. I'm floored by how well they are doing, even ones that do not seem especially well positioned to capitalize on the pandemic. The only things really down in my admittedly small 401k portfolio are value stocks and real estate. I used to be pretty much all large cap growth but a few years ago I "wised up" and diversified; I'm way down where I would have been if I had just kept it all in the large cap growth mutual fund. My 401k is negative for the year, but would be way up if I had kept it all in growth stocks.

[DMT]

Today in a NYT Op-ed, the co-founder of the Federalist Society called Trump a "fascist". Guess he's just the latest to contract TDS amirite?

It's not at all surprising that none of the Republicans post in here any more and it has absolutely nothing to do with how they're treated within RJ. There is simply no defending him, and, by extension, the Republican (aka Trump) party.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Today in a NYT Op-ed, the co-founder of the Federalist Society called Trump a "fascist". Guess he's just the latest to contract TDS amirite?

It's not at all surprising that none of the Republicans post in here any more and it has absolutely nothing to do with how they're treated within RJ. There is simply no defending him, and, by extension, the Republican (aka Trump) party.

Well also, some are looking pretty foolish right now and know they're in for a chorus of I Told ya Sos, well from me at the very least.

[revo]

I'm reallocating come August for the first time in many, many years. I'll move out of all my mutual funds; my only exposure to the market will be two consumer goods companies I've held seemingly forever. I think the market's going to get hammered shortly before or after the election.

Interesting. Because of fears of a Dem win? From what I’ve read, the market already “priced” that in, but of course, that doesn’t explain the current resurgence. I think if the Dems sweep on Election Day, we could see a correction of 10%, but these things are always short-lived and the market has performed well under the two previous Dem administrations, so it would bounceback within months. Probably a good buying opportunity.

Or is it another factor?

[chancellor]

Well, there is a respected financial advisor on here who just noted that the GDP drop is worse than the Great Depression, so logically, earnings can not hold up in that environment. With the exception of some consumer goods groups, demand will continue to crater - supported by a four-month decline in consumer confidence. Moreover, it's not just a Dem administration, it's one that will likely strip out the tax cuts that fueled much of the early market momentum.

With all that, I don't see market conditions doing that well over the next six months, and potentially really bad. I might just move some of my money into shorts or put options.

[revo]

Well, there is a respected financial advisor on here who just noted that the GDP drop is worse than the Great Depression, so logically, earnings can not hold up in that environment. With the exception of some consumer goods groups, demand will continue to crater - supported by a four-month decline in consumer confidence. Moreover, it's not just a Dem administration, it's one that will likely strip out the tax cuts that fueled much of the early market momentum.

With all that, I don't see market conditions doing that well over the next six months, and potentially really bad. I might just move some of my money into shorts or put options.

Yeah, by “Dem Administration” I was implying a reversal of the tax cuts. As far as the rest, we knew the horrific GDP was coming, and yet, the market continued to advance.

Perhaps if the federal unemployment addition gets cut to the $200 the GOP wants will we see a decline, but I’m not sure. I’m going to be scaling back as well, but probably not that much. Any vaccine breakthroughs and we’re off to the races again.

[nullnor]

the rather large tax break last time increased EPS. so when Biden raises it will be a big hit to EPS. on top of everything else going on. and as a result the market tanks. like a falling knife.

[chancellor]

Yeah, by “Dem Administration” I was implying a reversal of the tax cuts. As far as the rest, we knew the horrific GDP was coming, and yet, the market continued to advance.

Perhaps if the federal unemployment addition gets cut to the $200 the GOP wants will we see a decline, but I’m not sure. I’m going to be scaling back as well, but probably not that much. Any vaccine breakthroughs and we’re off to the races again.

A vaccine is the only risk in moving out of the market right now, IMO. Right now, I'll take that chance on a 6-12 month window. With no vaccine, I see some potential upside, but a huge pit of a downside.

[Teenwolf]

A vaccine is the only risk in moving out of the market right now, IMO. Right now, I'll take that chance on a 6-12 month window. With no vaccine, I see some potential upside, but a huge pit of a downside.

You mean like the looming eviction crisis? 28 million on the brink of losing their homes, 3x the great recession? That kind of downside?

[chancellor]

You mean like the looming eviction crisis? 28 million on the brink of losing their homes, 3x the great recession? That kind of downside?

Yes. In fact, no snark intended, CNBC lists it at 40 million at risk. Both articles I read didn't detail what "at risk" or "on the brink" meant, but I'll certainly agree it means a very large number.

OTOH, there's a lot of "bubble" type behavior, too, like this: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/p...091502928.html

[Teenwolf]

Yes. In fact, no snark intended, CNBC lists it at 40 million at risk. Both articles I read didn't detail what "at risk" or "on the brink" meant, but I'll certainly agree it means a very large number.

OTOH, there's a lot of "bubble" type behavior, too, like this: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/p...091502928.html

One statistic I heard that blew me away was that 1/3 of NYC renters haven't paid their rent since March! How are those few million people going to make up 4-6 months rent? A 70% wage subsidy? I don't think so! How many other cities have similar numbers? 28-40 million is a lot of homeless people. You cannot have 15% of the country homeless and expect the ship to keep sailing smoothly.

This looming housing market crisis could be a massive clusterfuck. With the complete inability to navigate the Covid pandemic on full display, it seems unlikely that the economy will be able to rebound to pre-Covid conditions unless an absolute miracle cure is found within the next few months. My money is on the complete collapse of the US. Good luck to all of you. I think Chancellor has the absolute right idea to withdraw from the market.