President Donald Trump

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  • Mithrandir
    All Star
    • Jan 2011
    • 9346

    Originally posted by nots
    FWIW, I would say that every single President past, present and future would have greater than 1 in 1M odds at doing something illegal and getting impeached and removed from office. Human nature being human nature and all.
    Yet that has never happened.
    "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

    Comment

    • Ken
      Administrator
      • Feb 2016
      • 10977

      Originally posted by Mithrandir
      Yet that has never happened.
      True, and we've had so many presidents who bribed foreign governments as part of their re-election campaigns... that's a great point!

      Meanwhile Giuliani is on another trip to Ukraine this week. Seems like a great idea for the White House to continue that path, nothing negative could possibly come from continuing to pursue this.



      “I think it’s a little weird that Rudy Giuliani is over in the Ukraine right now, and I’m not here to defend Rudy Giuliani,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said on CNN. “There’s apparently an investigation going on and that will go where it goes.”
      Hey look at that, a Republican who thinks it is a bad idea....

      Comment

      • Mithrandir
        All Star
        • Jan 2011
        • 9346

        Originally posted by Ken
        So is it your position that you are a better judge of the situation than everyone who analyzes political odds, or do you have inside information? Or what exactly? What's your argument if you disagree with the consensus?

        I've presented multiple sources showing that my suggestions were well within the generally accepted range of reasonable judgement. It's fine if you disagree with the overwhelming consensus (not this board, but literally a whole set of people who put their money on this stuff, or write articles or analyse political statistics, etc), but if that's your assertion, why? What do you know that none of them know? Why are you a better judge than any of them?

        None of them think it's likely, or anywhere close. We're talking about very low odds when I say 1%-10%. But they would all laugh at 1 in a million. Why are you a better judge of the situation than all those people who spend a significant amount of time analyzing this stuff and not running a library?
        How often do the analysts get it right? Keep believing in those "experts" Ken.




        And yes my "million to one" is my way of saying I believe 99.9999999999% chance of Trump NOT being removed. A 10% chance of him being removed is laughable.
        "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

        Comment

        • Mithrandir
          All Star
          • Jan 2011
          • 9346

          Originally posted by Ken
          True, and we've had so many presidents who bribed foreign governments as part of their re-election campaigns... that's a great point!

          Meanwhile Giuliani is on another trip to Ukraine this week. Seems like a great idea for the White House to continue that path, nothing negative could possibly come from continuing to pursue this.





          Hey look at that, a Republican who thinks it is a bad idea....
          You missed NOTS point...sigh
          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

          Comment

          • Ken
            Administrator
            • Feb 2016
            • 10977

            Originally posted by Mithrandir
            You missed NOTS point...sigh
            Did I? Nots? Did I miss your point?

            Comment

            • Ken
              Administrator
              • Feb 2016
              • 10977

              Originally posted by Mithrandir
              How often do the analysts get it right? Keep believing in those "experts" Ken.




              And yes my "million to one" is my way of saying I believe 99.9999999999% chance of Trump NOT being removed. A 10% chance of him being removed is laughable.
              Not experts, literally everyone I can find who has an opinion on it other than you.

              Show me someone else who agrees with you. Literally anyone....

              I'll hang up and listen.

              It cannot be hard. After all the opposing opinion is "laughable" according to you. So there have to be people lining up to agree with you.... right?

              Comment

              • Ken
                Administrator
                • Feb 2016
                • 10977

                Originally posted by Ken
                Did I? Nots? Did I miss your point?
                Mith, here's a hint. The fact that we've had 45 just presidents means that your reply of "Yet that has never happened" to an event that is 1 in a million means... well you still fail (to use your terms, at a "laughable" level) to grasp basic statistics.

                Comment

                • nots
                  Journeyman
                  • Jan 2011
                  • 2907

                  Originally posted by Ken
                  Did I? Nots? Did I miss your point?
                  I dont believe you did, Ken.
                  The odds on the next President being impeached (and the one after, and the one after that) is much greater than 1M to 1, regardless of party, gender, religion etc.

                  Comment

                  • Ken
                    Administrator
                    • Feb 2016
                    • 10977

                    Originally posted by nots
                    I dont believe you did, Ken.
                    The odds on the next President being impeached (and the one after, and the one after that) is much greater than 1M to 1, regardless of party, gender, religion etc.
                    Thanks, I agree completely.

                    Comment

                    • DMT
                      MVP
                      • Jan 2011
                      • 12012

                      Regardless of the actual number, it's all luck anyways whether he's impeached or not.
                      If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                      - Terence McKenna

                      Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                      How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                      Comment

                      • Ken
                        Administrator
                        • Feb 2016
                        • 10977

                        Originally posted by DMT
                        Regardless of the actual number, it's all luck anyways whether he's impeached or not.
                        Haha. Impeachment sucks!

                        Comment

                        • Mithrandir
                          All Star
                          • Jan 2011
                          • 9346

                          Ken, as bright as you think you are, do you understand that the only way a GOP Senator votes to remove Trump is if it helps their re-election bid. So keep believing those experts!

                          The main goal of just about every US senator and Rep is to get re-elected. If you dont agree with that, then you're not paying attention to reality
                          Last edited by Mithrandir; 12-06-2019, 11:08 PM.
                          "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                          Comment

                          • Mithrandir
                            All Star
                            • Jan 2011
                            • 9346

                            Originally posted by nots
                            I dont believe you did, Ken.
                            The odds on the next President being impeached (and the one after, and the one after that) is much greater than 1M to 1, regardless of party, gender, religion etc.
                            Forgive my confusion, but by greater do you mean "higher" as in say a billion to 1, or "lower" as in say 100 to 1. Thanks.
                            "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                            Comment

                            • Mithrandir
                              All Star
                              • Jan 2011
                              • 9346

                              Originally posted by nots
                              I dont believe you did, Ken.
                              The odds on the next President being impeached (and the one after, and the one after that) is much greater than 1M to 1, regardless of party, gender, religion etc.
                              Your original post said impeached AND removed
                              "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                              Comment

                              • Mithrandir
                                All Star
                                • Jan 2011
                                • 9346

                                Ken, to save you from bursting a vein, I will say once more, the million to 1 is simply a statement implying something is not likely to happen.

                                If you think there is up to a 10% chance Trump gets removed, then how much are you willing to bet that he indeed gets removed?

                                Since I'm only a librarian I dont have big bucks to wager, so how about $50?
                                "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                                Comment

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