President Donald Trump

[Hornsby]

You'll have to excuse my skepticism on this one, especially given Yellen's flip to supporting raising interest rates given inflationary pressures. I happen to agree with her POV, but I'm going to go with Trump's animosity to rising interest rates over height.

Despite what people may think, reporters for a mainstream media outlet do NOT make stories like this up. There's too much to lose with such a ridiculous report. So I have no doubt at all that it's true...

[Sour Masher]

Thank god for Jerome Powell & the Fed. But unless Trump capitulates on the Trade War, this is the new normal. Once I get back to square, I'm out of the market. Next year will be dangerous.

The is big news to me, given your knowledge of the markets, and your consistent bullishness of equities in the time I've been reading your posts. I often read that it is foolish to pull out of stocks temporarily, to try to time the market. Would you advise I rebalance my 401k to move some out of equities? I got a late start on retirement, so I've been aggressive,almost all equities, to catch up. I have already moved from nearly all growth funds to 25% value funds. Would you also move some money out of equities altogether? I'm in my early 40s, so could just ride it all out, but if the market will be volatile for awhile, maybe it is time to move a little into safer waters.

[revo]

The is big news to me, given your knowledge of the markets, and your consistent bullishness of equities in the time I've been reading your posts. I often read that it is foolish to pull out of stocks temporarily, to try to time the market. Would you advise I rebalance my 401k to move some out of equities? I got a late start on retirement, so I've been aggressive,almost all equities, to catch up. I have already moved from nearly all growth funds to 25% value funds. Would you also move some money out of equities altogether? I'm in my early 40s, so could just ride it all out, but if the market will be volatile for awhile, maybe it is time to move a little into safer waters.

The percentage of a recession has crept up for '19 and '20. Morgan Stanley just predicted a 30% chance of a recession in '20. This Trade War is just starting to get to a boil for the 1st quarter of 2019. Jobs are being lost, businesses are starting to fail. The red flags are popping up. It's going exactly as I said it would -- a national economy and jobs market that's doing well, and localized economies and job markets in TrumpLand that's starting to look like a recession. Pretty soon, one will win out and that one won't be the good one.

We have a bullheaded president who doesn't know what he's doing. His "sugar high" approach to finance -- and I'm not even sure he really has an "approach" -- where he believes his gauge is a stock market that's performing well, is starting to reveal the flaws. The market is a leading indicator. The global economy is slowing thanks to the Trade War.

If he attempts an auto tariff, forget it, all bets are off. Then it would be 100% clear he's gone off the rails and the market would respond in kind. He thinks he can win a financial war with China, where they still have a robust 6% GDP and a dictator for life who has little pressure.

The problem is, this all balances on the head of one guy who's a rube. Things can change in an instant. The next president, whoever it is, will remove all tariffs almost immediately. But that could be two years away. So I'd keep a small position in equities, probably defensive stocks, but with the rate-hike cycle winding down, I'd probably go into some quality bond funds like Loomis Sayles or Doubleline and just get the 5% yield for a year or so. Maybe I'm wrong. But I'm not sure I'd be 100% equities, that's for sure.

Like I've said repeatedly in these threads, Trump had all the makings of a market bonanza and he wasted it away. Sucks for him. Well, not really.

[revo]

How can anyone see Trump's dangling of a pardon for Manafort as anything other than potential obstruction of justice?

[Sour Masher]

How can anyone see Trump's dangling of a pardon for Manafort as anything other than potential obstruction of justice?

I really can't see how anyone can defend him on this at all. If he ends up pardoning Manafort, it would be an affront to our democracy if he her not impeached for it. The mere dangling of it is enough to potentially influence Manafort and others, and to me is yet another example of his complete and utter disregard for our system of government.

[Gregg]

How can anyone see Trump's dangling of a pardon for Manafort as anything other than potential obstruction of justice?

I do not know enough about the rules for President's pardoning.

I can see where we might think that it is a signal to those who take a hit for him will be ok wink wink. That does not seem right at all.

[revo]

I do not know enough about the rules for President's pardoning.

I can see where we might think that it is a signal to those who take a hit for him will be ok wink wink. That does not seem right at all.

Exactly. Take the hit and don't worry, we'll pardon you. That's about as blatant we've ever seen in this country.

[B-Fly]

Exactly. Take the hit and don't worry, we'll pardon you. That's about as blatant we've ever seen in this country.

Yes, I don't think I've heard of that kind of public preemptive signaling before, which doesn't mean it hasn't happened behind the scenes, but it is pretty awful and can obviously influence prospective witnesses, informants, defendants to brazenly stonewall investigators/prosecutors rather than cooperating for hope of leniency. I don't see how it's not effectively an obstruction of justice, at least in the literal sense of the term.

[Bernie Brewer]

Yes, I don't think I've heard of that kind of public preemptive signaling before, which doesn't mean it hasn't happened behind the scenes, but it is pretty awful and can obviously influence prospective witnesses, informants, defendants to brazenly stonewall investigators/prosecutors rather than cooperating for hope of leniency. I don't see how it's not effectively an obstruction of justice, at least in the literal sense of the term.

Boy, I wouldn't want to hitch my wagon to that "promise." If you can get a pardon versus serving time, I suppose you hold out hope, but he can't pardon anyone if he isn't President. IF there are sny material findings of wrongdoing by Trump, he won't be President for long. Maybe Pence pulls a Gerald Ford, and pardons Trump upon succession, but there goes Pence's political future. If Pence is indicted, well, all bets are off.

[revo]

Boy, I wouldn't want to hitch my wagon to that "promise." If you can get a pardon versus serving time, I suppose you hold out hope, but he can't pardon anyone if he isn't President. IF there are sny material findings of wrongdoing by Trump, he won't be President for long. Maybe Pence pulls a Gerald Ford, and pardons Trump upon succession, but there goes Pence's political future. If Pence is indicted, well, all bets are off.

Yes, that's true. But he's already dangling it, and really, what's to stop him from doing it next week? Or while he's indicted, if that were to happen? Obviously, he's certainly been preparing for that inevitability with Whitaker and Kavanaugh, so he can tell his loyalists "see, I'll never get indicted."


BTW, interesting that this week alone saw Paul Manafort, Jerome Corsi and now Michael Cohen all get caught lying to protect Trump. Things that make you go hmmmmm.

[onejayhawk]

Yes, I don't think I've heard of that kind of public preemptive signaling before, which doesn't mean it hasn't happened behind the scenes, but it is pretty awful and can obviously influence prospective witnesses, informants, defendants to brazenly stonewall investigators/prosecutors rather than cooperating for hope of leniency. I don't see how it's not effectively an obstruction of justice, at least in the literal sense of the term.

If I recall correctly, that is the reason the investigation into Cap Weinberger was dropped. GHW Bush told the prosecutor that he intended to pardon the former Secretary.

Boy, I wouldn't want to hitch my wagon to that "promise." If you can get a pardon versus serving time, I suppose you hold out hope, but he can't pardon anyone if he isn't President. IF there are sny material findings of wrongdoing by Trump, he won't be President for long. Maybe Pence pulls a Gerald Ford, and pardons Trump upon succession, but there goes Pence's political future. If Pence is indicted, well, all bets are off.

If I understand correctly, the problem with the pardon is that it covers federal crimes. There are numerous state crimes involved.

I have always thought that if there was ever any material finding it woulde become CNN's lead within the hour. That's the way things have been handled so far.

J

[revo]

If I recall correctly, that is the reason the investigation into Cap Weinberger was dropped. GHW Bush told the prosecutor that he intended to pardon the former Secretary.
J

This occurred after Bush lost the '92 election -- and may have been one of the reasons why he lost. He pardoned 6 Iran-Contra participants -- five of whom had already been convicted -- and basically covered everything up. Also, the scandal didn't happen during his administration.

[Bernie Brewer]

If I recall correctly, that is the reason the investigation into Cap Weinberger was dropped. GHW Bush told the prosecutor that he intended to pardon the former Secretary.


If I understand correctly, the problem with the pardon is that it covers federal crimes. There are numerous state crimes involved.

I have always thought that if there was ever any material finding it woulde become CNN's lead within the hour. That's the way things have been handled so far.

J

Correct. It does nothing for him if New York charged him.

I’m still wondering if there’s any there there in this case. Other than the foreigners and foreign corporations I ndicted, none of the charges or plea deals of any of the campaign staff has any red meat on Trump. They are either charged with failing to register as a foreign agent, lying to Federal agent, tax evasion and/or money laundering. I think it is wrapping up and it will be interesting to see if Mueller was holding his cards so closely that nothing against Trump leaked or if there is really nothing that ties back to Trump. I suspect Trump is guilty of many things, but so far I’m not seeing what others are seeing. Manafort will go away for a long time for the Bank Fraud and Money Laundering charges and if Trump pardons him, Illinois or New York will indict him on state level charges.

[Bernie Brewer]

While I was somewhat skeptical about what Mueller may find/may have found, this Cohen thing in which he says Trump was in negotiations for a project in russia at the same time he was denying it in his campaign is more than a bit troubling to me. Where’s there’s smoke, there’s fire. Until now I wasn’t seeing much fire. This may be it. Who knew he was a liar?

[B-Fly]

Who knew he was a liar?

LOL. That's droll.