President Donald Trump

[mjl]

Thank God for President Trump.

I read a lengthy FB post about the normalization of the white nationalist movement and the huge unseen masses that aren't quite in the movement but you know maybe they have some good ideas, and all I could think was that.

Once you accept that these people are all around us, that the movement existed before Donald Trump and will exist after him, what happens next time the figurehead isn't a self-sabotaging idiot? What if they'd nominated someone who understood how to make friends, how to negotiate, someone who didn't alienate our allies? What if the EU said "hey, this guy does have a lot of good ideas and we need to stay on America's good side, let's give him a pass on the white nationalism"?

Remember that the main reason we don't have a Muslim ban is that Trump explicitly said it was a Muslim ban and if he'd just claimed national security it probably would have gone through. Remember that the only reason we still have the ACA is because of three Republican senators, one of whom has been personally insulted by Trump many times and one of whom he sent his Secretary of the Interior to lean on ineffectively. What if he hadn't offended those people?

What if next time, Richard Spencer tells the Republican Party "nominate me and I'll pass whatever venal tax laws and health care plans you want, just let me do my thing too"? Or someone without a history, a true believer that doesn't follow it all the way into conspiracy theories and birth certificates?

It really feels like a civil war is coming. I don't know how we go through three more years of this, then four years of the other side being enraged by President Warren, then four years of our side being enraged by President Alex Jones, then who knows what.

(also it'd be nice to have a President who doesn't collect Social Security, but maybe that's unreasonable.)

[dslaw]

My taxes will go down, so I like that part...

There is a lot of repositioning things for the middle class,

I don't know your financial position but if you are middle class I guess the repositioning is between you and me. I redid my 2015 taxes with the new rules and I would pay almost $1,000 more in taxes. The House bill increased my taxes about $200 less than the Senate bill. Either way I get to pay more. After writing Senator Hatch about this he made his "bull crap" remark. I guess he believes all his big donors instead of me. Or he is too old to read anymore so he just ignores everything. The only good thing is they had to make the rules temporary for my taxes so they will (hopefully) get back to the current level. In 7 years. Yay.

[onejayhawk]

I don't know your financial position but if you are middle class I guess the repositioning is between you and me. I redid my 2015 taxes with the new rules and I would pay almost $1,000 more in taxes. The House bill increased my taxes about $200 less than the Senate bill. Either way I get to pay more. After writing Senator Hatch about this he made his "bull crap" remark. I guess he believes all his big donors instead of me. Or he is too old to read anymore so he just ignores everything. The only good thing is they had to make the rules temporary for my taxes so they will (hopefully) get back to the current level. In 7 years. Yay.

I own my home outright, so we don't itemize. The increases standard deduction is all gravy. Also, no State income tax to lose.

This is an article on the economic impact of the bill. There are some tidbits about the effect on individuals, but this is about businesses with an international scope.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/2018-could-be-the-year-trumponomics-23444

The benefits of the tax plan are unambiguously skewed toward U.S.-centric corporations. U.S.-centric corporations typically pay far higher tax rates than their multinational counterparts. A 20 percent corporate tax break for them would be a significant boost.

For instance, Canaccord Genuity estimates that a 20 percent corporate tax rate would boost S&P 500 energy sector earnings by more than 20 percent and financial sector earnings by more than 18 percent in 2018. The overall earnings impact is estimated to be 10.5 percent for the S&P 500 as a whole in 2018.

The tax plan is far less beneficial to individuals. In the near-term, it is about a 1.5 percent boost to overall after-tax incomes in 2019. This effect fades over time as the current tax breaks are phased out. In 2027, the tax break for an individual is marginally positive.

Trump was a finance guy. He knew where to make a quick strike count.

J

[swampdragon]

Where to start?

Jay, do you actually read the stuff you cite? This isn't an "article" at all. It's an opinion piece by a guy who works for an investment firm in Houston, Texas. Self-serve much?

Total bullshit about tax rates, which he tries to hide with buzz words such as "U.S.-centric" and "multi-national counterparts". The cold fact is that the effective tax rate for U.S. corporations is barely in the top ten, not the heaviest tax burden in the world as your "finance guy" claims.

As for that, what makes Trump a finance guy? The fact that he calls himself the King of Debt? Is that what the goverment needs? The fact that his companies are no strangers to bankruptcy court?

I've yet to see the Great Negotiator handle anything more challenging than a McDonalds "to go" order.

Now please, I'm trying to study for the 2018 season.

don't fall into the trap of using logic and real information with one jay - just dont - when Onejay writes I hear the jailhouse guy in In Living Color

[Redbirds Fan]

don't fall into the trap of using logic and real information with one jay - just dont - when Onejay writes I hear the jailhouse guy in In Living Color

Yeah, I was triggered into responding when I should have been looking at the AL East. It is going to be tough getting back into the swing after a being out of it for a while.

Should have just let it go.

[TranaGreg]

Yeah, I was triggered into responding when I should have been looking at the AL East. It is going to be tough getting back into the swing after a being out of it for a while.

Should have just let it go.

I wouldn't get too detailed at this point ... I'm sure that there will be a lot of action at the GM meetings this month now that the Ohtani situation is shaking out (at least as far as the AL east goes)

[Bernie Brewer]

I have completely mixed feelings about the Israel/Jerusalem Embassy thing. I am seriously open to be convinced on whether Trump saying he'll move the embassy to Jerusalem is a good or bad thing. It seems everyone agrees (every President since Clinton, and maybe even further back to Truman), but no one is wiling to actually take the bull by the horns and do it. No other Countries were willing to do it either. I just don't know what to think. Why now? Just Trump filling a campaign promise?

It seems to me to say that from the Palestinian view this is tantamount to ending the Peace process, the response should be "What about the Peace Process? You mean the one that's hasn't made much progress in 20 years?" But, I also understand that Palestine has long held claim to eastern Jerusalem and before that, Israel. And, I am not a fan of Israel continuing with settlements. It always seems overly provocative to me. But, then I am not a fan of Hamas running the Palestinian show and instigating violence. Or, at least it seems that way to me, 1,000s of miles west!

I'm not Jewish, nor am I Arab or Muslim. So I really have no skin in the game other than knowing Israel one of our strongest allys and we are its, and the conflicted view that all people should be free and lay claim to their own land.

Curious how others see this?

[umjewman]

I have completely mixed feelings about the Israel/Jerusalem Embassy thing. I am seriously open to be convinced on whether Trump saying he'll move the embassy to Jerusalem is a good or bad thing. It seems everyone agrees (every President since Clinton, and maybe even further back to Truman), but no one is wiling to actually take the bull by the horns and do it. No other Countries were willing to do it either. I just don't know what to think. Why now? Just Trump filling a campaign promise?

It seems to me to say that from the Palestinian view this is tantamount to ending the Peace process, the response should be "What about the Peace Process? You mean the one that's hasn't made much progress in 20 years?" But, I also understand that Palestine has long held claim to eastern Jerusalem and before that, Israel. And, I am not a fan of Israel continuing with settlements. It always seems overly provocative to me. But, then I am not a fan of Hamas running the Palestinian show and instigating violence. Or, at least it seems that way to me, 1,000s of miles west!

I'm not Jewish, nor am I Arab or Muslim. So I really have no skin in the game other than knowing Israel one of our strongest allys and we are its, and the conflicted view that all people should be free and lay claim to their own land.

Curious how others see this?

In case you guys couldn't tell, I'm Jewish. I know, big surprise.

I also have mixed feelings about it. I mean, we are taught from a young age about the importance of Jerusalem and its holiness and all that jazz. Hell, at Passover, we even talk about "Next year in Jerusalem." So, it's nice to see in that respect.

That being said, it just seems unnecessarily provocative. The region is always a powder keg, but this doesn't seem to help matters. And I'm not sure what, other than fulfilling a campaign promise, was really gained by the announcement. If people are going to die over this announcement and US interests are not gained in any meaningful capacity, I guess I just don't know what the purpose was right now.

In short, I don't hate the announcement (unlike many other things Trump does), but I also don't know what purpose it served at this juncture.

[dslaw]

I would have liked to see a mention of West Jerusalem and when the Palestinians complained that left some room for East Jerusalem eventually being their capital. But also something like "quit using state money to pay families of suicide bombers and we can talk about your capital". And if Israel complained because they didn't like the "West" mention tell them to quit building settlements on land they have agreed to let be part of Palestine. I guess I am kind of against it just because smarter men than Trump didn't do it but at the same time I am hopeful that somehow it helps.

[cardboardbox]

I would have liked to see a mention of West Jerusalem

That would have been an interesting idea for Trump to saying we are moving our embassy to the capital in West Jerusalem. But does Israel want to share the city?

[Redbirds Fan]

It's a show for the base. Even if they started the process tonight, we couldn't move the embassy until after the end of Trump's term. It's not like renting a new apartment.

He's starting a sh*t storm for the next guy to fix, just like the wall if he actually starts building it.

[Bernie Brewer]

It's a show for the base. Even if they started the process tonight, we couldn't move the embassy until after the end of Trump's term. It's not like renting a new apartment.

He's starting a sh*t storm for the next guy to fix, just like the wall if he actually starts building it.

I guess I wasn’t clear. I want to understand the merits of it.

And, I’m gonna call BS. You need to be consistent, if his base is made up of hard right wing, the White Supremest, Noe-nazi, red neck whatever’s, as all of those on the left portend, then I’m not sure his base cares all that much about Jews and Israel. And, if you still maintain that it’s just for his base, then isn’t fair to say that when Obama passed anything by EO he was just doing it for his base and leaving it for the next person to fix?

I’m just trying to understand why suddenly when Trump decides to do it (which he really hasn’t since he like every President in the last 20 years has deferred for six more months) it’s bad. The Dems have long been in support of this.

[revo]

I guess I wasn’t clear. I want to understand the merits of it.

And, I’m gonna call BS. You need to be consistent, if his base is made up of hard right wing, the White Supremest, Noe-nazi, red neck whatever’s, as all of those on the left portend, then I’m not sure his base cares all that much about Jews and Israel. And, if you still maintain that it’s just for his base, then isn’t fair to say that when Obama passed anything by EO he was just doing it for his base and leaving it for the next person to fix?

I’m just trying to understand why suddenly when Trump decides to do it (which he really hasn’t since he like every President in the last 20 years has deferred for six more months) it’s bad. The Dems have long been in support of this.

I'm not sure I understand this post at all.

When Obama did something, it was almost always for the greater good. When Trump does something, it's ONLY for his base. And there's endless proof of this in his inane tweets. He's always bashing Democrats -- and the 120m+ people in this country who come along with that -- as "obstructionist." He's WELL KNOWN for doing things just to do things without any thought or consequence. Look at his replacing of Janet Yellen, who by all accounts has done a great job as Fed Chairman, a job that has gone across administrations. He said "You just want to put your own stamp on things." Wonderful! Let's just change it up for shits and giggles or bcause I promised it!

As far as Israel, there are many many right wing conservative Jews, many of whom have his wax-encrusted ear, and furthermore, Israel is well supported by Evangelicals.

[gcstomp]

bernie, we have tools here at fingertips. your best guess, who is the trump base? what do you think make america great again slogan really means? seems to imply it was not great when he took office, and a need to get back to an earlier time. pew research indicates trump has strong support among white evangelical christians, near 70 percent latest couple polls, thats 30+ percent higher than general pop. among this group, the jerusalem declaration was met with greater positive response than any other group, including jews who understand that such a blunt move will result in blood.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-jerusalem-evangelicals_us_5a284e66e4b03ece02ffcb15

[Igor]

Such a great deal maker, played a good size chip with the Jerusalem move and got some Israeli concession towards a peace deal by ...., um wait, nothing? So much winning