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**swampdragon** · 10-01-2014, 09:15 AM

The three Steelers is a bit of a concern - is Heath MIller the best option at that price point?

Browns good call on defense

**jwlincy** · 10-01-2014, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by swampdragon View Post

The three Steelers is a bit of a concern - is Heath MIller the best option at that price point?

Browns good call on defense

Going off of the projections that I used, they expect big performances for Brown (#1 ranked WR in Week 5 - Proj: 7 rec, 115 yards, 0.8 TDs) and Bell (#2 ranked RB in Week 5 - Proj: 151 yards 3.5 rec & 0.5 TDs)

Miller is cheap ($4000) and he's ranked as the #7 TE in Week 5 (5 rec, 52 yards, 0.4 TDs). All the guys rated higher than him are more money (Olsen cheapest guy of the 6 that I have ranked higher than Miller and he's $5300). I only have $100 extra to spend so if I went with a more expensive TE, I'd have to cut some salary somewhere.

QB: Rivers (#3 Rated QB according to my projections versus 14th highest QB salary)
RB: Murray (#1 Rated RB according to my projections versus 4th highest RB salary)
RB: L. Bell (#2 Rated RB according to my projections versus 5th highest RB salary)
WR: A. Brown (#1 Rated WR according to my projections versus 2nd highest WR salary)
WR: Benjamin (#9 Rated WR according to my projections versus 31st highest WR salary)
WR: A. Robinson (#42 Rated WR according to my projections versus 54th highest WR salary)
TE: H. Miller (#7 Rated TE according to my projections versus 11th highest TE salary)
Flex: R. Jennings (#5 Rated Flex according to my projections versus 48th highest Flex salary)
DEF: Browns (#3 Rated DEF according to my projections versus 14th highest DEF salary)

**Todd Zola** · 10-01-2014, 10:30 AM

When you're trying to take down a large-entry tournament, you don't want a RB and a WR from the same team. You don't want the players to meet the projections, you want them to beat them and the chances both beat them are slim. The best pairing is a QB and WR.

**jwlincy** · 10-01-2014, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Todd Zola View Post

When you're trying to take down a large-entry tournament, you don't want a RB and a WR from the same team. You don't want the players to meet the projections, you want them to beat them and the chances both beat them are slim. The best pairing is a QB and WR.

I just put together a backup line-up and made the following changes:

Flex - Dropped R. Jennings for K. Allen
RB - Dropped Bell for R. Jennings
TE - Dropped H. Miller for T. Kelce
DEF - Dropped Browns for Seahawks

Still looking at other options because this line-up leaves me with $1100 left.

**james33** · 10-01-2014, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by Todd Zola View Post

When you're trying to take down a large-entry tournament, you don't want a RB and a WR from the same team. You don't want the players to meet the projections, you want them to beat them and the chances both beat them are slim. The best pairing is a QB and WR.

Excellent point. If you're trying to win a million dollar challenge, I wonder if the best approach might be to pick someone so fluky that nearly nobody will have him, and then hope it happens. Dunbar instead of Murray, for example. Then stick with the rest of your choices.

**Papa Deuce** · 10-01-2014, 01:45 PM

BTW, anybody can get in for free.... just use "Philly" in the code box..... they mentioned it on sports radio here today

**Pogues** · 10-01-2014, 07:23 PM

You know, 8th highest over/under matchup is another way of saying 7th lowest....or almost dead in the middle.

**jwlincy** · 10-03-2014, 08:25 AM

Ok, so I think that I've decided on the following positions:

QB: Rivers ($7000) - At home versus a bad pass/good run defense (NYJ). Jets traveling all the way to the west coast for the game. Somehow Rivers is only the 14th most expensive QB despite having the 5th highest points per week.

RB: R. Jennings ($5500) - Home game versus worst run defense in the NFL. Falcons offense should keep them in the game so that Williams doesn't get the garbage time carries that he got last week. Plus Jennings catches passes out of the backfield and this is a PPR contest.

WR: K. Allen ($5800) - Love pairing him with Rivers. Allen finally clicked with Rivers last week for 10 receptions (11 targets) and 135 yards. Plus as I said above, the Jets have a bad pass defense and a good run defense.

WR: Benjamin ($4800) - Home game with a great match-up against a banged up Bears secondary that gave up 4 TDs last week to Cobb & Nelson. Plus at 6' 5", Benjamin has showed during his young NFL career that he's a TD threat with 3 TDs in 4 weeks.

That's $23,100 of my $50,000 salary cap and 4 of 9 positions filled. I've still got to fill the following 5 positions ($5380 avg per player):

So guys that I like are:

RB (Need 1): Forte ($7800), Murray ($7500), L. Bell ($7300), Lynch ($7200), Bernard ($6700), R. Bush ($6200), Stacy ($5900), Ellington ($5600), Sankey ($4700), Ivory ($3100)

WR (Need 1): A. Brown ($8100), J. Jones ($8000), Thomas ($7400), Jeffery ($6700), Smith ($6000), Quick ($5900), Cruz ($5800), Wayne ($5700), Maclin ($5600), Mi. Floyd ($5300), Sanders ($5100), G. Tate ($4900), Hopkins ($4800), Watkins ($4800), Cooks ($4700), Royal ($4400), Randle ($3900), Wheaton ($3300), A. Robinson ($3000)

TE (Need 1): Graham ($7600), J. Thomas ($6900), Gronk ($6600), Bennett ($6000), Donnell ($5700), Olsen ($5300), H. Milller ($4000), Gates ($3500), Kelce ($3000), Harbor ($3000), Seferian-Jenkins ($3000)

Flex (Need 1): Any remaining RB, WR or TE

DEF (Need 1): SEA ($4200), CIN ($3800), SF ($3500), SD ($3100), CLE ($2700), NO ($2500), KC ($2300), STL ($2100)

Any thoughts on remaining options? Thanks in advance.

**Erik** · 10-03-2014, 08:54 AM

I agree with James: If your goal is to win big, you can't go for all the popular guys. You need to hit on at least one guy who won't be started by most other people.

26900 to spend:

L. Bell 7300 -- I picked the other four guys first, he was the most expensive RB who you could still fit in. Great matchup, I think he will do better than Lynch or Bernard.
A. Brown 8100 -- The most consistent non-QB in FF, with a great matchup. Starting a RB and WR from the same team may not be the best idea, but the Jags are awful at both run D and pass D and most people won't start both.
Quick 5900 -- Aside from Stacy, the most likely to put up big numbers vs. the bad Eagles D. I am starting him in every league where I own him.
Gates 3000 -- Jets secondary is awful, won't be as popular a pick as similarly-priced Kelce, you will be golden if he and Rivers connect all day. If you don't want a third Charger, then use Kelce.
NO 2500 -- TB is slightly better with Glennon but still turrible. Underachievement in the first four games could mean most shy away this week.

So there's my take. Heavy on Chargers and Steelers, but in a contest like this, you need to figure out which offenses are going to go off and ride them.

**jwlincy** · 10-03-2014, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Erik View Post

I agree with James: If your goal is to win big, you can't go for all the popular guys. You need to hit on at least one guy who won't be started by most other people.

26900 to spend:

L. Bell 7300 -- I picked the other four guys first, he was the most expensive RB who you could still fit in. Great matchup, I think he will do better than Lynch or Bernard.
A. Brown 8100 -- The most consistent non-QB in FF, with a great matchup. Starting a RB and WR from the same team may not be the best idea, but the Jags are awful at both run D and pass D and most people won't start both.
Quick 5900 -- Aside from Stacy, the most likely to put up big numbers vs. the bad Eagles D. I am starting him in every league where I own him.
Gates 3000 -- Jets secondary is awful, won't be as popular a pick as similarly-priced Kelce, you will be golden if he and Rivers connect all day. If you don't want a third Charger, then use Kelce.
NO 2500 -- TB is slightly better with Glennon but still turrible. Underachievement in the first four games could mean most shy away this week.

So there's my take. Heavy on Chargers and Steelers, but in a contest like this, you need to figure out which offenses are going to go off and ride them.

Sorry Erik, I had Gate incorrectly priced at $3000 when he's actually $3500. So your lineup is $400 over the budget with Gates.

**Erik** · 10-03-2014, 09:46 AM

Then use Kelce, assuming his price is correct.

**jwlincy** · 10-03-2014, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Erik View Post

Then use Kelce, assuming his price is correct.

Yep, he's priced correctly. Thanks.

**Todd Zola** · 10-03-2014, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Erik View Post

I agree with James: If your goal is to win big, you can't go for all the popular guys. You need to hit on at least one guy who won't be started by most other people.

26900 to spend:

L. Bell 7300 -- I picked the other four guys first, he was the most expensive RB who you could still fit in. Great matchup, I think he will do better than Lynch or Bernard.
A. Brown 8100 -- The most consistent non-QB in FF, with a great matchup. Starting a RB and WR from the same team may not be the best idea, but the Jags are awful at both run D and pass D and most people won't start both.
Quick 5900 -- Aside from Stacy, the most likely to put up big numbers vs. the bad Eagles D. I am starting him in every league where I own him.
Gates 3000 -- Jets secondary is awful, won't be as popular a pick as similarly-priced Kelce, you will be golden if he and Rivers connect all day. If you don't want a third Charger, then use Kelce.
NO 2500 -- TB is slightly better with Glennon but still turrible. Underachievement in the first four games could mean most shy away this week.

So there's my take. Heavy on Chargers and Steelers, but in a contest like this, you need to figure out which offenses are going to go off and ride them.

The problem with this lineup in a tourney is you really don't want a RB and a WR from the same team -- you're looking for guys to go off and it's unlikely both Brown and Bell will go nuts the same game.

My switch would be using Delanie Walker at TE then replacing either Bell or Brown. Brown is PPR gold -- I'd probably leave him in and look for another RB.

**jwlincy** · 10-03-2014, 11:19 AM

I keep coming back to Maclin ($5600) when cycling through possible combinations. He's been heavily targeted by Foles this season and he has a pretty reasonable price.

I'm warming up to going cheap with the Saints on DEF. Their matchup is really good and they are playing at home after losing last week to the Cowboys. They should be pissed.

I love DeMarco Murray, have him on my local fantasy team and the Cowboys really seemed committed to giving him the ball this year. He's been can't miss through the first 4 weeks of the season and is the top RB in fantasy right now but is only the 4th highest RB on DraftKings

That just leaves me with my flex & TE positions. If I go with A. Brown then I'd have to go with Kelce at TE. I like J. Thomas at TE but at $6900 that would require me to:

1. Go cheap at Flex (instead of A. Brown) - Randle or Hopkins
2. Go cheap at RB (instead of Murray) - Ivory
3. Go with 2 mid-priced ($6000ish) guys at RB & Flex - Hopkins (or G. Tate if Calvin sits) & Bernard or Gore & Jeffery

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