Ranks these RBs - 0.5PPR league

[jwlincy]

How would you rank the following RBs in a .5PPR?

G. Bernard
Foster
Lynch
D. Martin
D. Murray

Thanks.

[griswold]

As follows:

G. Bernard
D. Murray
Lynch
Foster
D. Martin

[Hammer]

D. Murray
G. Bernard
Lynch
Foster
D. Martin

[revo]

Bernard
Murray
Foster
Lynch
Martin

[Pogues]

As follows:

G. Bernard
D. Murray
Lynch
Foster
D. Martin

Ditto.

[Sam]

D. Murray
G. Bernard
Lynch
Foster
D. Martin

Ditto... However, with the injuries to the TB backfield, I'd consider moving Martin up to 4th - if not 3rd.

[jwlincy]

I think that I'm leaning towards:

D. Murray
Bernard
Lynch
Martin
Foster

[frae]

Bernard
Murray
Lynch
Martin
Foster

[jwlincy]

Here's how they went last night in my draft:

1.10: D. Martin
1:14: D. Murray
2.03: Lynch
2.06: G. Bernard
2.08: Foster

[Erik]

In my redraft it went like this:

2.03 Murray
2.05 Lynch (me)
2.06 Bernard
2.11 Foster
3.03 Martin; this was before the Mankins trade but after the Sims injury.

[DMT]

In my redraft it went like this:

2.03 Murray
2.05 Lynch (me)
2.06 Bernard
2.11 Foster
3.03 Martin; this was before the Mankins trade but after the Sims injury.

So Martin was ranked last by all but one (who ranked him 4th), but his value seems to have shot up quite a bit as he went first last night. Is that just hype or should he be ranked 1st now?

[Erik]

The perception is now that Martin will get most of the carries. It was looking like others would cut in more, but then Sims and James got hurt and the coaching staff went on record as saying Martin would be the bell cow. The Mankins trade further heightened the perception that Martin could produce big numbers from a lot of work.

I still see him as about even with Foster and not as attractive as Murray, Lynch or Bernard.

[DMT]

The perception is now that Martin will get most of the carries. It was looking like others would cut in more, but then Sims and James got hurt and the coaching staff went on record as saying Martin would be the bell cow. The Mankins trade further heightened the perception that Martin could produce big numbers from a lot of work.

I still see him as about even with Foster and not as attractive as Murray, Lynch or Bernard.

I get the sense that there is a lot more 'noise' in fantasy football analysis compared to baseball. In the past few days I've seen blurbs disparaging Murry (injury history), Jones (injury history) and Bernard (split time with Hill). Is it because there is simply less actual reporting to be done so they just make shit up? Or am I just reading bad sources?

[Erik]

It's partly because there is less actual reporting to be done. But a big part is that statistical analysis is much more difficult because the sample size is much smaller and the injury rates are much higher. Especially at the RB position, previous stats are no guarantee of future performance. Something like half of the top RBs taken in fantasy drafts every year bust.

Skill-player production is also highly dependent on two things not in control of the player: coach's scheme/preferences and offensive line performance. There's no good way to analyze that quantitatively.

[Trautdiggity]

I get the sense that there is a lot more 'noise' in fantasy football analysis compared to baseball. In the past few days I've seen blurbs disparaging Murry (injury history), Jones (injury history) and Bernard (split time with Hill). Is it because there is simply less actual reporting to be done so they just make shit up? Or am I just reading bad sources?

Murray does have an iffy injury history and it's the only thing holding him back. The Dallas O-line is tremendous and Murray is a dynamic runner, but you can't confidently say you'll get 16 games out of him. As for Bernard, there have been actual reports that Hill will cut into his touches significantly and Hill's performance through the preseason make those reports very plausible. Not sure who you're referring to when you say Jones.

So back to your original question, our perceptions, expert rankings and ADPs don't often match. Even more so, a single draft is not representative (think of it as small sample size). When you look around the universe of drafts, Bernard, Murray and Lynch are generally above the other two. There is genuine debate between Foster and Martin but they are right next to one another. I do think there are factors pushing Martin up but the drafts referenced here likely are due to hype IMO.