Fantasy Football Question

[johnnya24]

In H2H, the primary tie breaker seems to be "Pts For" (my experience anyway). But this completely ignores the enormous variance swings in "Pts Against". 14 games is a very small sample size, so there will be huge swings between most and least.

EDIT: what I originally posted doesn't work ... this is more what I as thinking of:

(Pts For) + (Pts against/7) - (average pts against)

If we say that "pts against" could be responsible for an average swing of 2 games per season. That means of the 196 H2H games played, 28 will be a result of pure variance (it's probably more). That is 1/7th of all the games played.

If you made the formula "pts against" divided by 1/7th, you'd get a more accurate picture:

(Pts For) + (Pts against/7) - (average pts against)

That would still strongly favour the high points scorers, but it would give a very high variance "pts against" team a bit of value back ... why? because if it wasn't for their high variance rate, they wouldn't need a tie break, they'd already be in the play offs.

Anyway ... just a thought.

SEE POST 7

[ironfist]

well seeing as you don't have any control over points against, I could see why that formula isn't used. I think using points for only feels more earned rather than luck-based.

[johnnya24]

well seeing as you don't have any control over points against, I could see why that formula isn't used. I think using points for only feels more earned rather than luck-based.

Actually, that calculation is not what I was thinking about. That calculation simply repeats the "pts for" tie breaker in a different form

You need to take an additional step

(Pts For) + (Pts against) - (average pts against)

[mjl]

maybe a stupid question here, but if each team is using "their own Pts For" - "the league average Pts Against", isn't that identical to using "Pts For"?

[Erik]

In one of my leagues, the 6th and final playoff spot goes to the team with the most Victory Points among those not in the top 5 in H2H record.

In Victory Points, you get 2 points for a win and between 0 and 2 points based on how well you scored vs all other teams that week. Top 4 get 2, bottom 4 get 0, everyone else gets 1.

This gets high scoring teams with incredibly bad luck in matchups a better shot.

[revo]

As commish in my leagues, i changed the 6th spot to most points scored among the non-qualified teams. I had wanted to use VPs, but this was a great change for us nevertheless.

[johnnya24]

So to be a little more clear:

Points works works fine for the most part, but it doesn't tell the whole story IMO. The point of this method would be to take into consideration the season flow. That way the tie breaker won't be a purely points factor ... it is an H2H league after all.

Teams that have low "pts against" variance generally have a pretty easy season. So this is a way of giving a little value back to the team that have had the toughest season. In the Liz Hurley League, the team with the lowest variance (Griswold) had to score 15.5 points fewer per game than the team with the highest variance (Ditka). So Griswold had basically the value of an extra first round RB over ditka for the whole season! - through random luck. That is massive. Griswold had nearly 8 points advantage per game over the league average (like having an extra kicker).

Bighorn Brawlers finished 9th despite scoring the second highest number of "pts for". The reason he finished 9th was because he had the second highest "pts against" variance.

Piney Boy is in the playoffs, despite scoring the second lowest number of "pts for".

So "pts against" variance has a massive effect on the regular season ... and it's pure luck.

---------

Actually, running the numbers, it wouldn't be right to give "pts for" and "pts against" equal value. If we say that "pts against" could be responsible for an average swing of 2 games per season. That means of the 196 H2H games played, 28 will be a result of pure variance (it's probably more). That is 1/7th of all the games played.

If you made the formula "pts against" divided by 1/7th, you'd get a more accurate picture:

(Pts For) + (Pts against/7) - (average pts against)

That would still strongly favour the high points scorers, but it would give a very high variance "pts against" team a bit of value back ... why? because if it wasn't for their high variance rate, they wouldn't need a tie break, they'd already be in the play offs.

Anyway ... just a thought.

[johnnya24]

maybe a stupid question here, but if each team is using "their own Pts For" - "the league average Pts Against", isn't that identical to using "Pts For"?

I corrected that in post 3 I was thinking of something else (post 7)

[johnnya24]

Liz Hurley (after 13 games)

Actual Standings:

[COLOR=#ffffff]_____________________________+___++___[/COLOR][B]FOR[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]_++_[/COLOR][B]AGS[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]____[/COLOR][B]ADJ[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]___[/COLOR][B]AVG PTS AGS[/B]
[TABLE="width: 494"]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]RotoRooter HauntsYou[/TD]
[TD]1312[/TD]
[TD]1172[/TD]
[TD]318[/TD]
[TD]83.70571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Kickers on Roids______[/TD]
[TD]1259[/TD]
[TD]1059[/TD]
[TD]249[/TD]
[TD]75.64286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Piney Boy___________[/TD]
[TD]1078[/TD]
[TD]1111[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[TD]79.35714[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Free Cat____________[/TD]
[TD]1209[/TD]
[TD]1192[/TD]
[TD]218[/TD]
[TD]85.10714[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]NickD's Nice Team____[/TD]
[TD]1224[/TD]
[TD]1115[/TD]
[TD]222[/TD]
[TD]79.63286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Empty Seat__________[/TD]
[TD]1221[/TD]
[TD]1244[/TD]
[TD]237[/TD]
[TD]88.82857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Long John Silvers_____[/TD]
[TD]1194[/TD]
[TD]1151[/TD]
[TD]197[/TD]
[TD]82.19429[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Griswolds___________[/TD]
[TD]1147[/TD]
[TD]1102[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]78.68143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Bighorn Brawlers_____[/TD]
[TD]1243[/TD]
[TD]1240[/TD]
[TD]258[/TD]
[TD]88.56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Heye Throw the ball__[/TD]
[TD]1138[/TD]
[TD]1202[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]85.88571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]J Team______________[/TD]
[TD]1120[/TD]
[TD]1179[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]84.17857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Otters______[/TD]
[TD]1049[/TD]
[TD]1126[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]80.41571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Westwood BruWins__[/TD]
[TD]938[/TD]
[TD]1093[/TD]
[TD]-68[/TD]
[TD]78.10286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Ditka_______________[/TD]
[TD]1130[/TD]
[TD]1276[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]91.14143[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Points For Standings:

[COLOR=#ffffff]_____________________________+___++___[/COLOR][B]FOR[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]_++_[/COLOR][B]AGS[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]____[/COLOR][B]ADJ[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]___[/COLOR][B]AVG PTS AGS[/B]
[TABLE="width: 494"]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]RotoRooter HauntsYou[/TD]
[TD]1312[/TD]
[TD]1172[/TD]
[TD]318[/TD]
[TD]83.70571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Kickers on Roids______[/TD]
[TD]1259[/TD]
[TD]1059[/TD]
[TD]249[/TD]
[TD]75.64286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Bighorn Brawlers_____[/TD]
[TD]1243[/TD]
[TD]1240[/TD]
[TD]258[/TD]
[TD]88.56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]NickD's Nice Team____[/TD]
[TD]1224[/TD]
[TD]1115[/TD]
[TD]222[/TD]
[TD]79.63286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Empty Seat__________[/TD]
[TD]1221[/TD]
[TD]1244[/TD]
[TD]237[/TD]
[TD]88.82857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Free Cat____________[/TD]
[TD]1209[/TD]
[TD]1192[/TD]
[TD]218[/TD]
[TD]85.10714[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Long John Silvers_____[/TD]
[TD]1194[/TD]
[TD]1151[/TD]
[TD]197[/TD]
[TD]82.19429[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Griswolds___________[/TD]
[TD]1147[/TD]
[TD]1102[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]78.68143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Heye Throw the ball__[/TD]
[TD]1138[/TD]
[TD]1202[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]85.88571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Ditka_______________[/TD]
[TD]1130[/TD]
[TD]1276[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]91.14143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]J Team______________[/TD]
[TD]1120[/TD]
[TD]1179[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]84.17857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Piney Boy___________[/TD]
[TD]1078[/TD]
[TD]1111[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[TD]79.35714[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Otters______[/TD]
[TD]1049[/TD]
[TD]1126[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]80.41571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Westwood BruWins__[/TD]
[TD]938[/TD]
[TD]1093[/TD]
[TD]-68[/TD]
[TD]78.10286[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Standings Using the Adjusted Formula:

[COLOR=#ffffff]_____________________________+___++___[/COLOR][B]FOR[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]_++_[/COLOR][B]AGS[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]____[/COLOR][B]ADJ[/B][COLOR=#ffffff]___[/COLOR][B]AVG PTS AGS[/B]
[TABLE="width: 494"]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]RotoRooter HauntsYou[/TD]
[TD]1312[/TD]
[TD]1172[/TD]
[TD]318[/TD]
[TD]83.70571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Bighorn Brawlers_____[/TD]
[TD]1243[/TD]
[TD]1240[/TD]
[TD]258[/TD]
[TD]88.56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Kickers on Roids______[/TD]
[TD]1259[/TD]
[TD]1059[/TD]
[TD]249[/TD]
[TD]75.64286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Empty Seat__________[/TD]
[TD]1221[/TD]
[TD]1244[/TD]
[TD]237[/TD]
[TD]88.82857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]NickD's Nice Team____[/TD]
[TD]1224[/TD]
[TD]1115[/TD]
[TD]222[/TD]
[TD]79.63286[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Free Cat____________[/TD]
[TD]1209[/TD]
[TD]1192[/TD]
[TD]218[/TD]
[TD]85.10714[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Long John Silvers_____[/TD]
[TD]1194[/TD]
[TD]1151[/TD]
[TD]197[/TD]
[TD]82.19429[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Ditka_______________[/TD]
[TD]1130[/TD]
[TD]1276[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]91.14143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Heye Throw the ball__[/TD]
[TD]1138[/TD]
[TD]1202[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]85.88571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Griswolds___________[/TD]
[TD]1147[/TD]
[TD]1102[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]78.68143[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]J Team______________[/TD]
[TD]1120[/TD]
[TD]1179[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]84.17857[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Piney Boy___________[/TD]
[TD]1078[/TD]
[TD]1111[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[TD]79.35714[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Midnight Otters______[/TD]
[TD]1049[/TD]
[TD]1126[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]80.41571[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Westwood BruWins__[/TD]
[TD]938[/TD]
[TD]1093[/TD]
[TD]-68[/TD]
[TD]78.10286[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[revo]

Johnny, why not just use the Breakdown most sites provide? This accomplishes exactly what you're looking for.

There's goes Johnny trying to overcomplicate things again........

[johnnya24]

Johnny, why not just use the Breakdown most sites provide? This accomplishes exactly what you're looking for.

There's goes Johnny trying to overcomplicate things again........

Any links? Kinda curious about better ways to break ties ... almost every league will have at least 1 tie break situation in a 14 game season.

... and yeah, probably

[revo]

Any links? Kinda curious about better ways to break ties ... almost every league will have at least 1 tie break situation in a 14 game season.

... and yeah, probably

Can't send you a link since it's a feature in my league's CBS site, but the Breakdown is what the team's record would be if it played every team every week.

[johnnya24]

Can't send you a link since it's a feature in my league's CBS site, but the Breakdown is what the team's record would be if it played every team every week.

That's interesting ... thx.

[james33]

As commish in my leagues, i changed the 6th spot to most points scored among the non-qualified teams. I had wanted to use VPs, but this was a great change for us nevertheless.

Love this rule; we do the same except 8-team playoffs in 14 team league, the first six are record, the next two are points scored of the remaining teams with 7th-14th best record.

[revo]

Love this rule; we do the same except 8-team playoffs in 14 team league, the first six are record, the next two are points scored of the remaining teams with 7th-14th best record.

We changed it to that in my keeper league, and that change single-handedly curbed the problem of early season dumpers. Teams with bad records are still in the hunt and the dumpers generally waited until Week 9 or 10, which is what it should be. Plus, the team that got the #6 spot had a record of 5-8, but he had the worst luck and was actually the league's 3rd highest scoring team.