Big-money survivor pool: who to take in week 11?

[Erik]

My big-money survivor pool started with 305 entries and is down to 11 -- with me being one of them.

My options this week aren't great, so I figured I'd get some input.

Teams playing this week that I've already used: IND, CHI, ATL, SD, DEN, SEA, SF, NO.

BUF-NYJ and WAS-PHI: Division matchups that could go either way. Avoiding.

GB-NYG: I don't trust GB without Rodgers or the Giants at all.

NE-CAR: Too even of a matchup for my tastes.

KC is not a reasonable option @ DEN.

That leaves:

CIN over CLE? I don't like to pick division games and CIN has a tendency to play down to their opponents.

ARI over JAX? Would feel better about this if ARI were at home.

DET over PIT? Would feel better about this if DET were at home.

HOU over OAK? Both teams are not good, but HOU has looked better in recent weeks (though it hasn't translated to wins) and they are at home.

What would you pick?

[joncarlos]

Dartboard? I don't like Cincy at all. Worried the Steelers have bounced back. Don't like HOU at all either. Giants are very unpredictable.

If it was me I would pick the Eagles. Redskins are not good.

[Judge Jude]

I saw a stat about how tough winless teams are against the spread, which reinforced my sense there - nobody wants to go winless, so there's a big push to get off the schneid - as Jacksonville (and Tampa Bay) did last week.

Arizona also has beaten the "in the playoffs" Lions and Panthers already this season, admittedly both at home. I hate picking road teams, but I'd be tempted. The time zone thing weighs against, but the Jags aren't exactly Seattle or Denver or New Orleans in terms of home-team crowds.

If Terrelle Pryor is as banged-up this week as he was against the Giants, that lack of mobility would be relevant vs Houston, too. I'd read the tea leaves on the Texans this week; "win one for Kubiak at home," or "we just want the season to end?"

Washington has had 3 extra days off from blowing a 13-pt 2nd-half lead vs Vikes on a Thurs nite, and they were humiliated in the first half of opening week prime time vs Eagles, who did nothing in the second half of that game. I would avoid that game.

[Pauly]

Arizona all the way

[jwlincy]

I'd probably roll with the Texans at home versus the Raiders. My 2nd choice would be Cardinals at Jags. I agree with staying away from the Jets/Bills, Eagles/Redskins & Browns/Bengals divisional games. Anything can happen in those games, the 2 teams just know each other too well.

Good luck!!

[Hammer]

I go with the Cardinals.

[Erik]

If it was me I would pick the Eagles. Redskins are not good.

Weird things happen in NFC East games.

While I don't really think the point about the 2nd half of their first matchup is germane (Eagles D has improved since then, as has Kelly's coaching), I don't think the talent gap between them is all THAT large. It takes a massive talent gap for me to consider a division game. (This is why I stayed away from TEN-JAX in my money pools last week.) And if Foles gets hurt again, the Eagles WILL lose, as Matt Barkley is not an NFL quarterback.

[Pogues]

Dartboard? I don't like Cincy at all. Worried the Steelers have bounced back. Don't like HOU at all either. Giants are very unpredictable.

If it was me I would pick the Eagles. Redskins are not good.

Eagles can't win at home...for whatever reason. I'd go Cards. I think if the Titans didn't lose Locker, they would have won that game.

[Judge Jude]

ok, our consensus was Cardinals.
did you listen?


fyi, Redskins were down 24-0, then they had the ball at Philly 17 in final minute while down 24-16 after a pair of 8-pt TDs in 4th qtr. That one mighta costa you a pair of underwear if you went that route, lol. and please say you didn't take the Texans!

[Erik]

I took the Texans...







on Tuesday. Then I switched to the Cardinals on Friday after reading this thread and thinking about it some more.

There are now 6 of us left. Four people took the Texans and one took the Chargers.

[Pogues]

Stay tuned next week for some more sound RJ advice...

[Erik]

On to Week 12.

For now I've picked CAR over MIA. CAR is on the road and coming off a Monday night game, so this might not be the slam dunk it appears to be. But I just can't see the MIA offense doing anything against the CAR defense.

Other options:

PIT over CLE -- While PIT has been better lately, it's a division game and they're on the road.

DET over TB -- While DET has the superior talent and is at home, they're not reliable (see last week) and TB has been playing better.

GB over MIN -- But only if Rodgers plays. Even if he does, division game.

KC over SD -- KC at home and looking to atone for loss to DEN, but, division game.

HOU over JAX -- If they can't beat OAK, how can we assume they'll beat JAX? Plus, division game.

NYJ-BAL and TEN-OAK are too tough to predict. Every other game, I've already used the favorite (or both teams).

[Judge Jude]

DET at home. TB no longer so embarrassed, can relax a little.

CAR is giddy and will be even after a loss. Always fear a team that will not be upset after a loss, and that's them, especially off a short week. Their coach/QB have a lot to learn

[Pogues]

Yahoo "numbers crunching" predicts Houston will win easily this week. I think they are nuts. I'd go Carolina.

[joncarlos]

I like Carolina, they're really good and Miami is falling apart. Second choice would be DET, but I don't think TB is horrible.