Mock Time?

[Hammer]

I considered Murray over Thomas but the injury thing scared me away.

[Erik]

Sure you can wait and then you'll get a mediocre QB.

In most years that has been true, but there is enough talent at the position now that I don't think it's true any longer in leagues of 12 teams or fewer.

[griswold]

I like Murray to go big this year.


As for Rodgers, I've always thought, and continue to think, that the whole "you can wait on a QB" strategy is a stupid one. Sure you can wait and then you'll get a mediocre QB. QBs score so many points that the difference between one tier to the next can be massive. Plus, there are consistent QBs to be had (early), unlike TEs, for example. I would never throw away an early pick on a TE, personally. Of course, I'm no expert so wtf do I know?

Sorry bud....but I gotta disagree with this one....first off, I've always waited for QB's....but last year Rodgers had only a 69% Quality Success Rating (QSR) placing him tied for 5th place (with 3 other QB's) in consistency.

Yes, he was tied for 2nd place in total points but he was only 30 points ahead of Matt Ryan (who was 6th overall and also had a 69% QSR).

Matt Ryan is being drafted in 6th-7th round in many of the mock drafts so far this season.

I lover Rodgers and Brees as much as the next guy but if I can wait 4-5 rounds to draft Ryan and load up on the other core players...I'm gonna go that route.

[frae]

Sorry bud....but I gotta disagree with this one....first off, I've always waited for QB's....but last year Rodgers had only a 69% Quality Success Rating (QSR) placing him tied for 5th place (with 3 other QB's) in consistency.

Yes, he was tied for 2nd place in total points but he was only 30 points ahead of Matt Ryan (who was 6th overall and also had a 69% QSR).

Matt Ryan is being drafted in 6th-7th round in many of the mock drafts so far this season.

I lover Rodgers and Brees as much as the next guy but if I can wait 4-5 rounds to draft Ryan and load up on the other core players...I'm gonna go that route.

You are up now, so go load up

[Hornsby]

Case in point --- Cam Newton. Guy was money in the bank coming off of his 2011, right? Yeah, not so much.

Oh, and Matt Ryan's ADP is 31. That's round 3, not round 6 or 7.

Better check first...Aaron Rogers had 348.20 points in the RJ Pay for Play League, Can Newton had 325.14. A difference of roughly 23 points, or less than 2 points per game.

[Hammer]

When you need 2 starting RBs as well as a flex and a back up and with the pool so limited at RB (full time RBs lets say 12 and the rest part time) I will gladly wait til round 4 to get a guy like Newton or Peyton Manning. There are a lot of quality QBs (34 points separated the top 6 in 2012 in RJ PFP) whereas the cliff is much steeper when you look at RBs and need to start two of em.

[revo]

Case in point --- Cam Newton. Guy was money in the bank coming off of his 2011, right? Yeah, not so much.

Oh, and Matt Ryan's ADP is 31. That's round 3, not round 6 or 7.

Yeah, that's not a good comp there with Cam. He had a remarkable 2nd half.

In addition to what everyone's posted, also keep in mind the huge influx of Top 12 talent at the QB spot (RGIII, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick), pushing usual fantasy starting QBs out of the top 12, and borderliners well into the nether rounds. And since these QBs are dime-a-dozen, you can always luck into a resurgent one at very little cost.

Using Pay for Play's QB scoring, a borderline fantasy starter PPG went up almost 20% from '11 to '12, thanks to this new QB mobility and emphasis on the pass. Meanwhile, Rodgers' PPG dropped by 20% over that same period.

[griswold]

Case in point --- Cam Newton. Guy was money in the bank coming off of his 2011, right? Yeah, not so much.

Oh, and Matt Ryan's ADP is 31. That's round 3, not round 6 or 7.

Well, I was saying that in the Mocks I was doing in May, he was going in the 6th rd.

Every draft is going to be different. I drafted Drew Brees at the end of the 3rd round in one draft.

My point (like others here) is that there are tremendous number of good consistent QB's in this year's fantasy drafts.

[griswold]

Do you think maybe you're becoming over reliant on QSR?

Well, I won this league 2 yrs ago and made the finals last year....so I guess it must be working....lol

[Hammer]

Rodger's average draft position is 10 right now by the way. Lol, you guys.

just goes to show there's a sucker like you in all these fantasy football drafts.

[revo]

Rodger's average draft position is 10 right now by the way. Lol, you guys.

It's kind of like a one catcher format in a 12-team league -- yeah, you can take Posey in Rd 2 or 3 and he'll easily outproduce at least 7 or 8 of the other starters, but is the #12 catcher that bad?

FBGs has a consolidation of ADPs, and the highest is 13 and lowest is 31, so #10 seems very high.

[Erik]

Actually the position that is most like catcher is tight end. QBs are consistently the highest scoring totally unlike catchers.

What matters more is scoring of your QB relative to your opponent's QB. The difference between #1 and #12 is shrinking.

[frae]

Fantasy Football Calculator has Rodgers ADP at 27th in PPR leagues...

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php

[revo]

What matters more is scoring of your QB relative to your opponent's QB. The difference between #1 and #12 is shrinking.

That's true. Using Pay for Play's scoring, the difference between QB1 and QB12 was 28%. The average of the 5 seasons before that was 40%.

[Steve]

Sproles? Really?