Thoughts on some Fantasy Football Philosophy...Junkies?

[griswold]

So, as I'm looking at some numbers today, I started doing two things:

First off.....I wanted something that could provide an improved look with Consistency Fantasy points and came up with this concept:

Consistent Fantasy Points per Game

Basically....you take the player's actual Fantasy points per game for the league scoring method and multiply it times the Quality Success Rate from that year.

So, for example, in a standard QB scoring league (1 pt for 20 yards and 4 pts per passing TD) you would have the following:

Based on 2011:


Actual Fantasy Pts per game = 29.97

TIMES: Quality Success Rate = 100%

Equals: Consistent Fantasy Pts per Game = 29.97

This was for Aaron Rodgers

Based on this, here's where the rest of 2011 QB's would rank:

FPPG QSR
29.97 100% = 29.97 Aaron Rodgers
28.59 94% = 26.87 Drew Brees
27.04 94% = 25.42 Tom Brady - TIER ONE
26.40 81% = 21.39 Cam Newton
25.42 75% = 19.06 Matthew Stafford - TIER TWO
22.05 73% = 16.10 Tony Romo
20.64 75% = 15.48 Matt Ryan
21.85 69% = 15.08 Michael Vick
21.81 69% = 15.05 Eli Manning - TIER THREE
20.24 63% = 12.75 Philip Rivers
18.99 60% = 11.39 Matt Schaub
18.06 60% = 10.83 Carson Palmer

Thoughts on this theory? Interesting enough...the actual Fantasy pts per game ranked in exactly the same way....this is rare.

CONSISTENCY DRAFT TIERS

Now, after creating those numbers the idea was to place these into Tiers where the Tiers would be separated at each spot where the change from the Consistent Fantasy Pts per Game (CFPG) for the prior Tier decreased by more than 25%

So, for example....

The Tier ONE QB's are Rodgers, Brees and Brady. Their average CFPG is 27.42.

The next TIER would ONLY be Newton and Stafford because their average CFPG is more than 25% lower than TIER ONE.

TIER THREE breaks at Eli Manning because the average of that group exceeds 25% less after Manning.

NOW, granted these numbers are based on last year's numbers, but my thought is to project the player's points and consistency and then calculate the CFPG and TIERS.

Logical? Flaws? I believe by separating these TIERS for all positions you could lay out the drafting tiers and realize why some players are sure 1st round picks or not.

Thoughts?

Thanks guys...I always appreciate the great minds here.

[jwlincy]

I like that you're trying to think outside of the box. It seems like the system would reward players twice for production. Once by starting with their higher average and then a second time with the higher consistency rating. Or maybe that's what you're looking for, to put more distance between the consistent performers and the non-consistent ones.

[griswold]

I like that you're trying to think outside of the box. It seems like the system would reward players twice for production. Once by starting with their higher average and then a second time with the higher consistency rating. Or maybe that's what you're looking for, to put more distance between the consistent performers and the non-consistent ones.

Yeah, I believe you're right when you say that I'm trying to separate the consistent and inconsistent.

Really, all that I'm doing is combining the two separate stats (Fantasy Points per game and QSR) and combining them in order to rank those in a truer fashion.

A good example is someone like Fred Jackson. He missed six games last season but his Fantasy points per game was 21.02 FPG and his consistency was a perfect 10 for 10 or 100% QSR....so his Consistent Points per game was 21.02....however, if look at his ranking in total points he ranked around 14th...so people miss the point on how good he was.

His 21.02 Consistent Points per game ranked only below Rice and Foster last season....

Another good example...Vincent Jackson....ranked 13th in total points but had a 50% QSR....so his Consistency Points per game had him ranked 27th!!!

But Jackson is still being drafted way too high ADP-wise...

Does that help or do you still believe that I'm over-thinking it? I'm actually trying to make it easier by combining the two stats into one to show a TRUER ranking of how consistent players are.

Thanks for your thoughts...

[joncarlos]

I like it. I like the idea of rewarding consistent performers with double points. I'm not sure I like the idea of (OK + consistent) being equal to (good + inconsistent) but I don't know how to get around that.

Obviously (25+ points and 75% consistency) is best. But I would prefer (25+ points and 30% consistency) over (13 points and 100% consistency). Could you weight one of them more or something?

[DMT]

I like it. I like the idea of rewarding consistent performers with double points. I'm not sure I like the idea of (OK + consistent) being equal to (good + inconsistent) but I don't know how to get around that.

Obviously (25+ points and 75% consistency) is best. But I would prefer (25+ points and 30% consistency) over (13 points and 100% consistency). Could you weight one of them more or something?

I agree that consistency should be given greater weight...but the question then is, how do you project consistency? Will it be based on consistency from previous seasons or something more? The problem with projecting that in FFB is the incredibly high rate of injuries.

[griswold]

I like it. I like the idea of rewarding consistent performers with double points. I'm not sure I like the idea of (OK + consistent) being equal to (good + inconsistent) but I don't know how to get around that.

Obviously (25+ points and 75% consistency) is best. But I would prefer (25+ points and 30% consistency) over (13 points and 100% consistency). Could you weight one of them more or something?

You would not want someone with 25 fantasy points per game at 30% consistency over a guy who's averaging 13 at 100%.

Case in point, based on my idea above, let's look at it this way:

Player A: 25 fantasy points per game TIMES 30% QSR(consistency) = 7.50 Consistent points per game

Player B: 13 FPG TIMES 100% QSR = 13.00 Consistent points per game

Player B is MUCH MUCH Better and will help your fantasy team EVERY WEEK!

Player A will only help you 30% of the time....he'll help you greatly in those weeks....but that's it!

See my point?

[griswold]

I agree that consistency should be given greater weight...but the question then is, how do you project consistency? Will it be based on consistency from previous seasons or something more? The problem with projecting that in FFB is the incredibly high rate of injuries.

I'm still working on the Projecting part.....I can show trends in the prior years for consistency and highlight good (like Philip Rivers) and bad (like Vincent Jackson).

I also have historical data to show you how well player does in certain scenarios like at home versus a good defenses, etc.

Again, it's using historical data...but it at least shows trends.....it's not perfect, but then no one has perfected it either.

[revo]

I agree that consistency should be given greater weight...but the question then is, how do you project consistency? Will it be based on consistency from previous seasons or something more? The problem with projecting that in FFB is the incredibly high rate of injuries.

Along with the scheme, strength of schedule, and strength of teammates. That's why I gave up projecting FF stats years ago -- it's somewhat useless, except for ranking purposes.

[jwlincy]

Yeah, I believe you're right when you say that I'm trying to separate the consistent and inconsistent.

Really, all that I'm doing is combining the two separate stats (Fantasy Points per game and QSR) and combining them in order to rank those in a truer fashion.

A good example is someone like Fred Jackson. He missed six games last season but his Fantasy points per game was 21.02 FPG and his consistency was a perfect 10 for 10 or 100% QSR....so his Consistent Points per game was 21.02....however, if look at his ranking in total points he ranked around 14th...so people miss the point on how good he was.

His 21.02 Consistent Points per game ranked only below Rice and Foster last season....

Another good example...Vincent Jackson....ranked 13th in total points but had a 50% QSR....so his Consistency Points per game had him ranked 27th!!!

But Jackson is still being drafted way too high ADP-wise...

Does that help or do you still believe that I'm over-thinking it? I'm actually trying to make it easier by combining the two stats into one to show a TRUER ranking of how consistent players are.

Thanks for your thoughts...

That makes sense to try and combine the 2 things into one ranking versus having the projections and QSR separate. Keep up the good work!

[griswold]

That makes sense to try and combine the 2 things into one ranking versus having the projections and QSR separate. Keep up the good work!

Thanks buddy...I keep trying to improve the system to make it more relevant and useful. Now, if I could find a programmer that I could trust and count on!!!!! UGH!!!