QB Heavy draft (6pt per passing TD) - The #1 pick argument?

[griswold]

So, I'm doing a mock draft with RotoExperts on Thursday night and I have the #1 pick overall.

It's a PPR league but QB gets 6 pts per passing TD.

After my "diligent" research, I have come to the conclusion that my #1 pick should be....Aaron Rodgers.

Facts:

- In 2011, he averaged 36 pts per game (or 575 pts over 16 games) and was a perfect 15 for 15 in Quality Games.

- The closest running back last season was Ray Rice with 370 points in a PPR format or 23 pts per game.

- There were 3 QB's who earned over 500 points in this format last season (Brees and Brady were the other two)

- Many of the solid QB's like Rivers, Ryan, etc. saw a drop in consistency in this format therefore, not allowing Fantasy owners to wait on a solid QB in the 4th or 5th rounds.

The argument is there is a bigger drop-off between the top three/four RB's and the rest of the field vs the drop-off at QB after the top three.

I disagree....If I draft Rodgers first....I'll be able to draft solid backs like Fred Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw at the end of the second round.

Thoughts?

[Hammer]

Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles are far from solid options. CJ Spiller is a threat to steal half the touches as is Hillis in KC and both are coming off season ending injuries. If I can get a RB like Foster who doesnt share and catches the ball, I do it and am happy to get Romo Rivers Ben or Eli later on.

[griswold]

The same way Thomas Jones was supposed to split carries with Charles in 2010? That was they talked about that year....and Charles led the league in Fantasy points and consistency. Also, when CJ Spiller took over for Jackson his consistency was only 60%. Jackson was a perfect 10 for 10 in Quality Games.

I'm not buying it.

I think both of these offenses start with a 60/40 mix and once both Jackson and Charles prove they are the best RB, they'll go to a 75/25 split.

Hey, just my thoughts...

Gris

[jwlincy]

Bob,

I don't think that I could do it. With many teams employing a RBBC, I'd rather spent a high 1st round pick on a guy like Foster, Rice or McCoy because they don't come off the field on 3rd down or goal line situations. I'll take my chances with one of those 3 RBs and a QB like Romo, Rivers, etc. later in the draft.

Good luck, my friend.

[Hammer]

The same way Thomas Jones was supposed to split carries with Charles in 2010? That was they talked about that year....and Charles led the league in Fantasy points and consistency. Also, when CJ Spiller took over for Jackson his consistency was only 60%. Jackson was a perfect 10 for 10 in Quality Games.

I'm not buying it.

I think both of these offenses start with a 60/40 mix and once both Jackson and Charles prove they are the best RB, they'll go to a 75/25 split.

Hey, just my thoughts...

Gris

thomas Jones was on his last legs when he got to KC. Peyton Hillis is in his prime and is a beast. At the very least, he will get the goal line touches. In the era of RBBC are you really telling me that Spiller and Hillis arent going to cut into the production of Charles and Jackson? I certainly wouldnt want either as my RB1.

[griswold]

thomas Jones was on his last legs when he got to KC. Peyton Hillis is in his prime and is a beast. At the very least, he will get the goal line touches. In the era of RBBC are you really telling me that Spiller and Hillis arent going to cut into the production of Charles and Jackson? I certainly wouldnt want either as my RB1.

No, the Thomas Jones, who in 2009 was FIFTH in overall Fantasy points for the Jets!

He was supposed to SPLIT carries with Charles and the Chiefs figured out real quick that Charles was much better than Jones and Charles was the beast.

And I believe it will be the same for Charles and Hillis....Hillis is an insurance policy. IF Charles isn't 100% healthy, he'll play more...if Charles proves he's healthy, the Hillis play spell him about 25-20% of the carries.

Spiller (IMHO) was playing to save his career last season when Jackson went down. It worked. But I don't believe they will split the carries much more than 70/30 IF Jackson is healthy.

Jackson was the 3rd highest Running Back in Consistent Fantasy Points Per Game (CFPG). Only Ray Rice and Arian Foster were ahead of him.

I'd be thrilled to have both of the RB's on my team IF they're healthy to team up with Aaron Rodgers.

Great argument, Hammer! I love this!

[Hammer]

I quickly glanced at 2009 in rj league and jones was 9th but i am not sure how that plays in your league. I dont remember feeling nearly as confident about jones to kc as i am about hillis. Plus i dont believe charles was coming off a serious injury in 2010. As for spiller, he was a baby and grew up last year. I doubt he goes back to sucking. I could see 60/40 in touches but even if its 70/30 thats not what i want out of my RB1.

[revo]

Again, unless your league starts 2 QBs, I wouldn't touch a QB in Rd 1 with a 10 foot pole -- especially at #1 overall.

[griswold]

Again, unless your league starts 2 QBs, I wouldn't touch a QB in Rd 1 with a 10 foot pole -- especially at #1 overall.

Hhmmm, I know what you're saying, Revo.

Luckily it's a mock draft on Thursday night. So it will be fun to play out.

I'll post the rosters when it's done.

Do many of you play in leagues with this scoring method?

I played in one last year and won it because I drafted Ray Rice with the fifth pick right after Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Vick wen 1 thru 4.

I drafted Romo in the 3rd round.....but I traded Romo and Jimmy Graham for Brees in Week 5.

I'm not sure I would have won the league without Brees.

It would have been close though.

[griswold]

I quickly glanced at 2009 in rj league and jones was 9th but i am not sure how that plays in your league. I dont remember feeling nearly as confident about jones to kc as i am about hillis. Plus i dont believe charles was coming off a serious injury in 2010. As for spiller, he was a baby and grew up last year. I doubt he goes back to sucking. I could see 60/40 in touches but even if its 70/30 thats not what i want out of my RB1.

Charles was not coming off an injury but he was unproven and I believe that Jones was the veteran insurance policy in case Charles didn't hold his own. he did and Jones received less carries.

I still believe Spiller grew up because he had to in order to keep his job. If Jackson doesn't get hurt, I believe Spiller would have been released or traded.

[frae]

I don't know how I feel Bob. I probably would take Foster, but I will be interested to see how it plays out. I should have a similar call next year in our RJ league as Rodgers will cost me a 1st round keeper. Since we only score 4 in TD's if I pick in the bottom 1/3 of the draft I may keep him one more year. Anyway, good luck.

[chancellor]

Do many of you play in leagues with this scoring method?

I do - and I agree with your assessment. The top team in our league drafted almost all Packers - Rogers in the first, Jennings and Nelson at WR, Finley at TE. He patched together some RBs (Reggie Bush and Sproles, picked up Helu before he went nuts), and dominated the league.

If it's a 6 pt/TD passing league, I'm hoping to get out of the 1st round with a front-line QB.

[revo]

OK, after further review -- in a PPR scoring system with QB TDs at 6 pts instead of 4, I do believe QBs are quality 1st round picks. And that said, you can make a strong case for Rodgers #1 overall.

[onejayhawk]

No, the Thomas Jones, who in 2009 was FIFTH in overall Fantasy points for the Jets!

He was supposed to SPLIT carries with Charles and the Chiefs figured out real quick that Charles was much better than Jones and Charles was the beast.

And I believe it will be the same for Charles and Hillis....Hillis is an insurance policy. IF Charles isn't 100% healthy, he'll play more...if Charles proves he's healthy, the Hillis play spell him about 25-20% of the carries.

Spiller (IMHO) was playing to save his career last season when Jackson went down. It worked. But I don't believe they will split the carries much more than 70/30 IF Jackson is healthy.

Jackson was the 3rd highest Running Back in Consistent Fantasy Points Per Game (CFPG). Only Ray Rice and Arian Foster were ahead of him.

I'd be thrilled to have both of the RB's on my team IF they're healthy to team up with Aaron Rodgers.

Great argument, Hammer! I love this!

Thomas Jones led the team in carries that year, but had a mediocre 3.7 y/c. Jamaal Charles was 2.7 y/c better. This year they have Peyton Hillis in the same role.

J

[schlesinj]

I play in this type of league and typically by the 2nd round the top QBs are gone. Typically, the top 2 are taken in the 1st.

Usually, the teams with good QBs do well. Of course, teams that waited and ended up with Newton (last year) or Vick (the year before) really had a big advantage.

I am not sure I would grab one with the 1st overall pick although I never had that opportunity.