Top 12 - If you drafted today

[jwlincy]

What would your top 12 list look like if your fantasy draft were today? How many QBs make your list? Do either or both of the Big 2 TEs make the cut? Any other WRs other than Calvin Johnson? I think mine would be:

1. Arian Foster (RB) HOU
2. Ray Rice (RB) BAL
3. LeSean McCoy (RB) PHI
4. Aaron Rodgers (QB) GB
5. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) JAX
6. Calvin Johnson (WR) DET
7. Tom Brady (QB) NE
8. Ryan Mathews (RB) SD
9. Cam Newton (QB) CAR
10. Drew Brees (QB) NO
11. Chris Johnson (RB) TEN
12. Trent Richardson (RB) CLE

I realized that I was pretty QB heavy with my first 12 picks. That may change as we get closer to the start of the season. I tend to trust these guys more than some other guys like Forte (contract), A. Peterson (injury), Fitzgerald (Bad QB play), etc.

What does your list look like?

[revo]

in a 1 QB league, with the QBs as deep as they've ever been, I can't see four going in round one. All but Rodgers may go early in Rd 2.

I have this Top 12:

1. Arian Foster (RB) HOU
2. Ray Rice (RB) BAL
3. LeSean McCoy (RB) PHI
4. Calvin Johnson (WR) DET
5. Ryan Mathews (RB) SD
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) JAX
7. Aaron Rodgers (QB) GB
8. Chris Johnson (RB) TEN
9. Trent Richardson (RB) CLE
10. Larry Fitzgerald (WR) ARZ
11. Adrian Peterson (RB) MIN
12. Darren McFadden (RB) OAK

[Hornsby]

I guess that it depends on what the scoring system is, but there are a goodly number of QB's that are going to score around the same amount of points, so I'd discount them a great deal. You can always get an Eli Manning or Philip Rivers after the 5th round and do just fine.


1. Arian Foster (RB) HOU
2. Ray Rice (RB) BAL
3. LeSean McCoy (RB) PHI
4. Calvin Johnson (WR) DET
5. Ryan Mathews (RB) SD
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) JAX
7. Chris Johnson (RB) TENN
8. Cam Newton (QB) CAR
9. Trent Richardson (RB) CLE
10. DeMarco Murray (RB) Dallas
11. Jimmy Graham (TE) NO
12. Darren McFadden (RB) OAK

[Hornsby]

Personally, there's no way in hell I'd risk that high of a pick on Cam Newton. I think I'm more or less in line with what Revo posted as his top 12.

Why not? Newton has the potential to add RB3 points in addition to his top 10 QB points. I know that they all say he won't run as much, I call BS....the guy sees a seam, he'll take off for it. Frankly, I'd take him before Rogers at this point...

[Hornsby]

Historically, running QBs have had only sporadic success in the NFL. I don't really believe in Newton nearly as much as the other top tier QBs (Rogers, Brady, Brees are easy picks before him, imo). He's a good but not great pocket passer and I think he gets exploited in 2k12. I expect his TD:Int to approach 1:1 again. I think he'll add in a half dozen to eight rushing TDs and end up with about 32-ish total. That's good, but a far cry from 1st round good. He was good in 2k11 for two reasons: tons of passing yards (just like all the QBs, it seemed) and 14 rushing TDs. I don't think he gets to either mark next year. I'm definitely letting someone else take the risk and there's plenty from a running QB in only his second year.

Fair enough, but the only other running QB that I'd compare Newton to would be Daunte Culpepper. Yeah, I know that he really fell off the earth, but that was after numerous injuries that left him a shadow of his former self. Newton is young and strong, and inexperienced enough to make the combo of running and throwing work. Once he gets older, he'll undoubtedly throttle back on it, but until that point, I think that he'll be a beast.

[Hornsby]

Randall Cunningham, Kordell Stewart, McNabb, McNair, Vick, Steve Young.....there's a lot of them. Some, like McNabb and McNair and Vick and Young, have had more than just sporadic success but most have been really hit and miss. When so much of a QB's value is tied up in his legs, I tend to avoid. No QB will rush for 14 TDs per year every year. So if that's the case, you better have amazing pocket passing like Steve Young in order to justify a high round pick, much less a top 10 pick. Too much risk, imo.

Of your list, only McNair and Young had the size and strength even close to what Newton possesses. That's the difference maker, IMO...and the fact that he's a much better passer at a young age than anyone you name. Young developed, so did Cunningham and McNair to a degree, Stewart and Vick always managed to get hurt at the wrong times.

Newton doesn't need to rush for double digit TD's to be a top 3 guy...he'll throw for over 4000 yards and 20+ TD's, add in over 500 rushing yards, and maybe 8 rushing TD's. That's HUGE for a QB.

[Erik]

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Arian Foster
3. Ray Rice

This is my personal preference, but the order doesn't really matter. All are workhorse uber-studs.

4. Calvin Johnson

Far and away the best at his position.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew
6. Chris Johnson
7. Ryan Mathews
8. Trent Richardson

The lone remaining healthy workhorse backs. All have question marks but all will get the ball a lot. Having an RB1 who gets the ball a lot is a big advantage in FF, because there are so few of them anymore.

9. Larry Fitzgerald
10. Darren McFadden
11. Aaron Rodgers
12. Drew Brees

In a one-QB league I don't like taking QBs in the first round, but by the time you get to pick 11, there isn't anyone at another position who can anchor your team the way that Rodgers and Brees can. Andre Johnson in his prime could, but I don't trust him to reach those level again. Talent- and opportunity-wise, Fitz and McFadden rank with the guys in the 5-8 tier, but Fitz has QB issues and McFadden has injury issues.

I need to see Graham and Gronk do it again before I'd even think about going TE in Round 1.

ETA: I would probably put Forte somewhere in the middle of Round 1 once his contract situation is resolved, but there's too much uncertainty with him at this point.

[umjewman]

My primary league is a start two QBs league, so my top 12 would look vastly different. I haven't really figured out what order yet, but I could see Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Vick, Cam, hell, even Stafford all going in the first round. Rice, McCoy and Arian Foster are three more. Calvin Johnson makes 10. The last two, not so sure at this point.

[chancellor]

Newton doesn't need to rush for double digit TD's to be a top 3 guy...he'll throw for over 4000 yards and 20+ TD's, add in over 500 rushing yards, and maybe 8 rushing TD's. That's HUGE for a QB.

I agree with you, but the one risk Newton carries is that much of his passing value is tied up in one WR - Steve Smith, who hasn't been the epitome of health in the past. With Carolina's awful defense, if Smith stays healthy, Newton has a huge year. If not, he has a good year.

I'll certainly take him early if I can.

[Erik]

Why not? Newton has the potential to add RB3 points in addition to his top 10 QB points.

This is what people were saying about Vick last offseason.

No one is denying the talent, but running QBs are MAJOR injury risks.

[jwlincy]

in a 1 QB league, with the QBs as deep as they've ever been, I can't see four going in round one. All but Rodgers may go early in Rd 2.

I have this Top 12:

1. Arian Foster (RB) HOU
2. Ray Rice (RB) BAL
3. LeSean McCoy (RB) PHI
4. Calvin Johnson (WR) DET
5. Ryan Mathews (RB) SD
6. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) JAX
7. Aaron Rodgers (QB) GB
8. Chris Johnson (RB) TEN
9. Trent Richardson (RB) CLE
10. Larry Fitzgerald (WR) ARZ
11. Adrian Peterson (RB) MIN
12. Darren McFadden (RB) OAK

My list was based off of my 14 team local league, where QBs always go alot higher than I expect. We only start 1 QB and passing TDs are only 4pts. It just seems like every year I'm scrambling at QB because I wait too long. Last year Vick was a keeper and 3 QBs went in the 1st round (Rodgers #1, Brady #5 and Brees #7). Then 4 more QBs went in the 2nd round (Rivers, P. Manning, M. Ryan & Schaub). Stafford went in the 3rd round and Romo went in the 4th. Then Eli & Big Ben went in the 5th before my pick, they guy that took Eli already had Romo. I panicked a bit and reached for Josh Freeman with my 5th round pick (#67 overall) and it killed me.

I have two 1st round, two 2nd round and two 3rd round picks this year. I want to make sure that I take a QB fairly early so that I'm not stuck with a guy like Freeman this year.



I pick #9 this year and A. Foster will be a keeper so that will bump everyone up one slot. I'm weighing some of the options that I expect to be there (Mathews, CJ2K, Brees, Brady, A. Peterson & Richardson).

[Hornsby]

This is what people were saying about Vick last offseason.

No one is denying the talent, but running QBs are MAJOR injury risks.

The size difference and the age difference are both huge, and in Newton's favor. The time to draft a running QB is early in his career, before he starts to break down from all of the extra hits...Vick is a prime example of a guy who's simply too small, and too fragile to withstand a whole season.

[jwlincy]

Any changes in thinking with Richardson's knee scope, Mathew's broken clavicle and MJD's continued hold out? Does Forte make the top 12 now that he has his new contract? How many QBs make the cut? What about Graham & Gronk, would anybody spend a top 12 pick on them?

[Erik]

Yeah, it means you're screwed if you are picking low in the first round this year.

McCoy/Rice/Foster in some order
Calvin
Rodgers/Brees/Brady in some order
Chris Johnson

Then what? Mathews might miss as much as 1/4 of the fantasy season. That's too much of a risk for a first-rounder. MJD continues his holdout, and Emmitt Smith aside, holdouts often see a drop in performance the year they return. McFadden is fragile. Richardson has an injury question and plays on a crappy team. Forte won't get many TDs. Can Stafford and Newton do it again. and is it wise to take the 5th QB off the board in the first round? Fitz has uncertainty at QB and no other WR makes a good case for the first round because the position is so deep. Can Graham and Gronk duplicate their historic production, and are you screwed if you take one in the first round and they don't?

[jwlincy]

Yeah, it means you're screwed if you are picking low in the first round this year.

My thoughts exactly. I'm sitting in that very position, at the #9 spot in my 14 team league and I'd trying to look at some scenarios for my first pick. Foster, McFadden, Newton, D. Murray are all keepers. So I'm thinking that I'll be looking at Stafford at QB, Forte/MJD/M. Lynch at RB, Fitzgerald/Rod. White at WR or Graham/Gronkowski at TE for my 1st pick.