2K12: Running Backs

[revo]

is this the weakest crop of RBs in the fantasy football era?

Between stars coming off major injuries (Adrian Peterson, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson); aging (Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner); RBBC (Carolina, New Orleans, Miami); underperformance (Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene, Ahmad Bradshaw); and the inability of young backs to keep it together (Mark Ingram, Jahvid Best, Beanie Wells) -- combined with the increased dependence on the passing game leading to boffo stats for TEs and many QBs, there are the fewest number of RBs in the Top 30 I've ever seen.

If you're not guaranteed to land Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy or Ray Rice, it's a total crapshoot this season.

[griswold]

I completely agree, revo!

And the funny thing is that the mock draft ADP's have Rodgers, Brees and Newton going in the first round. With Brady and Stafford not far behind in the 2nd round.

Or does this make sense because of the various issues that you mentioned surrounding the available backs?

Take guaranteed consistency in Rodgers and Brees and then draft the RB's in round 2 and 3?

I think it depends on where you draft in the first round.

If you have pick 1 thru 4, you take Foster, Rice, McCoy or MJD. Pick #5 thru #7, you take Rodgers, Brees and your favorite top WR (Megatron).

Picks #8 thru #12, you take a top WR (White, Jennings, Fitz, Welker) and Brady.

I can't bring myself to draft Gronk and Graham in the first round.

Thoughts?

[revo]

The problem in a standard 12 tm league with 1 QB is that the team who takes the last QB is still getting a stud (Matt Ryan, Big Ben, RGIII), and likely can take a good backup or 2 to play matchups with. So while Rodgers/Brady/Brees et al are much better, you're giving up an important RB/WR and may not be able to replace that player later on.

I had been discussing this with my good friend (who happens to be a sports radio host in Cleveland, maybe you've listened to him) yesterday, and we both agreed his draft spot, #5, was the worst in the draft. I pick 8th, and I have no idea who I will take, although I guarantee it will not be a QB.

I agree, a TE in rd one seems like it's nuts, but these guys put up WR1 numbers and the dropoff is HUGE from the top 2 to the 8-12 TEs.

On a positive note for RBs, there do appear to be many solid/sleeper RBs to be had in Rd 3-8, so it seems wise to take a RB with a WR/TE/Qb in the 1st two rounds.

At #8, I'm seriously considering Trent Richardson, even if he's a rookie.

[griswold]

I agree....I just can't take a QB in the first round unless it's a 2 QB league.

Yes, Graham and Gronk put up WR1 numbers. It's tough to believe they can do it again. I think Graham can and will but not Gronk. I believe he'll be a top 3 tight end but with Brandon Lloyd there I think the TD's will drop for Gronk.

I'm a huge Browns fan and I would not take Richardson in the first round. Maybe when I see him in preseason playing against a first time pro defense for a couple of series he'll change my mind, but not right now.

BTW, who is your friend from Cleveland?

[Erik]

It's a passing league and most teams have RBBC to a significant degree, so yes, loading up on RBs early isn't the surefire strategy it used to be.

[onejayhawk]

Dont go to sleep on Peyton Hillis. He will get as many carries as Jamaal Charles, and that is a good run blocking line.

In general, you have a point. The era of the franchise RB seems to be over. Once aagain we are in an era of specialists.

J

[chancellor]

The problem in a standard 12 tm league with 1 QB is that the team who takes the last QB is still getting a stud (Matt Ryan, Big Ben, RGIII),

Wow...in fantasy terms, that sure seems like a huge dropoff. About 600-1000 yards passing and 15-20 TDs passing seems like a big dropoff compared to the top 12-14 WRs (discounting the mutant known as Megatron).

[revo]

Wow...in fantasy terms, that sure seems like a huge dropoff. About 600-1000 yards passing and 15-20 TDs passing seems like a big dropoff compared to the top 12-14 WRs (discounting the mutant known as Megatron).

But in fantasy football, a standard league starts 36 WRs, not 12-14. So if you compare the QB value for those ranked 1st to 12th compared to the WRs ranked 1st to 36th, the difference is huge. Drew Brees was 2011's #1 QB and Big Ben the #12 QB. The percentage fantasy pt difference was 40% between them, a big divide.

But the difference between the 1st WR (Megatron) and the 36th WR (Eric Decker) was a staggering 59%.

The #1 RB (Ray Rice) had a 50% gap to the 24th ranked RB (BJGE).

And if you're in a deeper league that starts more than 2 RBs and 3 WRs, it's a no brainer to pass on a QB early, despite the big numbers they put up.

[Steve]

It's a passing league and most teams have RBBC to a significant degree, so yes, loading up on RBs early isn't the surefire strategy it used to be.

My main $ league is PPR. I think unless you get one of the few studs, you wait until the 4th or 5th round for RB's. I'd rather have QBs and WRs. Of course, this league gives 1 point for 20 yards receiving, 20 yards rushing, and 20 yards passing, so it's a real passing league.

[chancellor]

But in fantasy football, a standard league starts 36 WRs, not 12-14. So if you compare the QB value for those ranked 1st to 12th compared to the WRs ranked 1st to 36th, the difference is huge. Drew Brees was 2011's #1 QB and Big Ben the #12 QB. The percentage fantasy pt difference was 40% between them, a big divide.

But the difference between the 1st WR (Megatron) and the 36th WR (Eric Decker) was a staggering 59%..

True, but you can still get quality WRs in mid to later rounds - you likely won't get a quality QB after round 2, or maybe 3. And the difference between the 1st WR (Megatron) and the 2nd/3rd WR (Welker/Nelson) is over 20%. If MJD, Foster, Rice, McCoy and Megatron are all off the board, I'd be pretty sorely tempted to take a premier QB in the first round.

[onejayhawk]

Again, dont neglect the Chiefs' RB1(b). They made a major investment on the OL, and Peyton hillis is no slouch, and he will likely get more carries. Thomas Jones did in 2010. Hillis is not a top 10 RB, but not far from it.

J

[revo]

True, but you can still get quality WRs in mid to later rounds - you likely won't get a quality QB after round 2, or maybe 3. And the difference between the 1st WR (Megatron) and the 2nd/3rd WR (Welker/Nelson) is over 20%. If MJD, Foster, Rice, McCoy and Megatron are all off the board, I'd be pretty sorely tempted to take a premier QB in the first round.

I guess we're differing on the word "quality." Eli & Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo & Big Ben are all high quality QBs, IMO. All of those QBs will likely be drafted in Rds 3-7, and with the exception of Peyton, should all be expected to produce.

As far as WRs in the middle rounds, I believe it's a total crapshoot. Some guys could become total home runs, others could be washouts. I don't think any of those QBs will be washouts. At worst, they'll do less than expected but still be startable.

At first glance I thought this was a crazy statement. However, I think you might be on to something. There's absolutely no competition for Richardson and he's "the best since AP" according to about a gazillion talking heads and scouts. I hate to take big risks in the first rough, which is why I'd probably take on a pass on him (maybe). Wouldn't shock me, though, if whoever picked him hit a total home run with the pick.

Yeah, if Richardson gets the 320-350 touches as the Browns want him to, he is worthy of a Top 10 pick. Heck, the Brownies have little else, so they may as well feed him the ball as much as possible and see what happens.

[Hammer]

With the production he put on the field before he got hurt, DeMarco Murray is a top 10 RB. I just hope people continue to not realize it until after draft day.

[onejayhawk]

With the production he put on the field before he got hurt, DeMarco Murray is a top 10 RB. I just hope people continue to not realize it until after draft day.

The key word is "hurt".

Also, so much of his season was tied up in the Seattle game it is a bit worrisome.

J

[Erik]

Also, so much of his season was tied up in the Seattle game it is a bit worrisome.

J

It would be if he had been the featured back all year, but he wasn't.