Week 3 Thread

[revo]

Kind of what i was thinking, though Samuel's floor really intrigues me. Seems to get about 10 targets every game, tacks on a couple points in rushing yards, and they like him in the red zone. I don't see a big upside, but he sure seems as safe as a bet around for a low of 10 points in a PPR league.

I like Samuel a lot and wouldn't be opposed to using him over the two Chargers.

[chancellor]

Sutton & Davis to me are must starts.

I'd have to see about Allen, but if he plays, probably him.

Kind of what i was thinking, though Samuel's floor really intrigues me. Seems to get about 10 targets every game, tacks on a couple points in rushing yards, and they like him in the red zone. I don't see a big upside, but he sure seems as safe as a bet around for a low of 10 points in a PPR league.

[revo]

Need some help - have to pick three of:

Cortland Sutton, Gabriel Davis, Mike Williams, Keenen Allen and Curtis Samuel.

Oh - and on the QB post, I actually think Mariota might not stay hot but be really solid as a fantasy QB. Atlanta will be behind by a lot and early in many games, he can still pick up running/scramble yards, and their receivers are better than many (including me) thought.

Sutton & Davis to me are must starts.

I'd have to see about Allen, but if he plays, probably him.

[chancellor]

Need some help - have to pick three of:

Cortland Sutton, Gabriel Davis, Mike Williams, Keenen Allen and Curtis Samuel.

Oh - and on the QB post, I actually think Mariota might not stay hot but be really solid as a fantasy QB. Atlanta will be behind by a lot and early in many games, he can still pick up running/scramble yards, and their receivers are better than many (including me) thought.

[revo]

And to compare the top RBs vs the preseason top ADP RBs, it's still not close.

Chubb & Saquon are beating other pre-season RB1s like Cook, Fournette, Najee, Mixon & Henry by 8-10 points. LJax, Hurts, Mahomes & Allen are beating the other pre-season QB1s by 20+ points.

[revo]

I believe you're missing the point.

If you didn't land one of those top 4 QBs + Burrow, Kyler or Herbert, you almost certainly ended up drafting Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Stafford, Lance, Dak, Carr or Cousins as your starter. Those were the pre-season second tier of QBs by ADP. And, you're probably reluctant to bench them, unless in the case of Dak or Lance, they're on the shelf. So the point is, the pre-season second tier of QBs has been so brutally bad, and the top guys as of today have been so good, that the deficit is enormous. If you're in a Superflex league where you need 2 QBs, it's even greater. And that's another problem -- there are a finite amount of QBs to be had. In 1 QB leagues, you could pick up a Goff or Wentz and be good for a sporadic number of weeks, but in 2 QB leagues, you're up the creek.

Pre-season ADPs
8-Wilson
9-Brady
10-Lance
11-Dak
12-Stafford

That means those were all fantasy starters.

Rodgers was 13, Carr 14, Cousins 15. Top backups in a 1 QB league, excellent starters in a 2 QB league.

Tua and Lawrence were pre-season QBs 17 & 18. Neither were drafted as fantasy starters.

In 1 QB leagues, the lower 3rd tier QBs have actually done surprisingly well -- Lawrence, Wentz, Mariota, Goff. But unless you were in a 2 QB league, those guys weren't starting and the boat was probably missed. And besides Lawrence, does anyone expect their hot starts to continue?

It will probably even out, with the top guys coming down, the 2nd tier guys moving up, and the lower 3rd tier guys moving down. But there's enough risk involved with the 2nd tier guys now, when it wasn't like that last year or the year before.

[Ken]

This doesn't tie out to the actual data. Yes, LJax has had a great start, but the top QBs are simply not further ahead than normal. His start is very similar to Russell Wilson's 2020 in fact.

Here are the > 28 point guys for the last 3 years, 2022 isn't different than 2021/2020 for the point totals for the top guys:

2022 Lamar Jackson 34.75
2020 Russell Wilson 34.33
2020 Josh Allen 31.64
2022 Josh Allen 29.95
2021 Kyler Murray 29.73
2020 Pat Mahomes 29.31
2021 Tom Brady 29.16
2020 Dak Prescott 28.97
2022 Jalen Hurts 28.78
2020 Kyler Murray 28.38
2021 Pat Mahomes 27.73

The next tier, top 10 QBs that are not listed above, in all 3 years are sitting in the ~20-24 point range.

Maybe the issue is you are identifying the wrong QBs for the next tier? Wilson, Rodgers, Brady, and Stafford aren't that tier, they are fading. If you picked those guys (I did in one case), the problem isn't the QB market this year, the problem is we picked the wrong QB. The 2nd tier this year is Herbert and Murray and Tua and Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. The next generation of QBs has arrived ahead of time. That's a GOOD thing for the concept of 2nd tier QBs not a bad thing.

For a comparison point, lets look at RBs instead.

Chubb, Barkley, and James Robinson (wow) are all sitting 17+ points per week.

If you picked Ekeler, Mixon, or Cook in the first round, you are only getting 7-9 points per week so far and you are looking at a big deficit too.

[revo]

The top QBs this year are so much ahead of the middle tier guys, if you landed them you have a huge advantage. Maybe that evens out, maybe it doesn't. The mid-tier guys are old and some have other major issues. Right now, LJax has scored literally almost 3x what Rodgers, Brady, Stafford and Wilson have scored. They will come back and LJax will come down, but there's a good chance he ends up with 50%-100% more than them.

But the stunning part is that these players are not scrubs, they're stars.

If LJax finishes with 27-29 ppg, and those others finish with 15-17 ppg, that's the equivalent of an extra player.

[Ken]

It is, but I think revo's point is more than that - it's that there's far fewer elite QBs than just last year AND if you've missed out on one of them you'll need to fortify yourself the best you can at all the other positions. I think. But I could be wrong.

I don't see it. I see a 3 week sample size where a few guys will naturally have a larger advantage than they would at the end of the year, just due to variations in short samples.

Lets look back at weeks 1-3 in fantasy points by QB

2022 LJax, Allen, Hurts all 28+, no one else above 23.5, 9 QBs > 20
2021 Murray, Brady, Mahomes had 27+, no one else above 24.5, 13 QBs > 20
2020 Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, Murray all had 28+, no one else above 24.5, 11 QBs > 20
2019 Mahomes, LJax, Prescott, Wilson had 27+, no one else above 23.5, 8 QBs > 20
2018 Fitzmagic, Mahomes, Brees had ~30+, no one else above 26.5, 10 QBs > 20
2017 Brady had ~26, Alex smith 20.75, no others > 20
2016 No one above 24.5, 5 QBs > 20
2015 Rodgers, Brady above 26, 6 QBs above 20
2014 Luck ~26, only Ryan and Manning > 20


2022 looks a lot like 2018-2021. There's always a group of 3-5 at the top, then a tier break, then ~6-10 others.
There's definitely a huge, huge difference of the last 5 years vs 2017 and prior, when you needed a Brady or Rogers or you just had rando non-scoring QB. But I dont see a big delta of 2022 against the last few years.

[chancellor]

Right - the general statement that if you are bad at QB you need to be good at other spots is... true, but not really saying much. Same is true for other spots as well.

It is, but I think revo's point is more than that - it's that there's far fewer elite QBs than just last year AND if you've missed out on one of them you'll need to fortify yourself the best you can at all the other positions. I think. But I could be wrong.

And funny this should come up - I just received an offer for Justin Herbert and Aaron Jones for Trevor Lawrence and Austin Ekeler. I'm sending Lawrence and Ekeler

[Ken]

Right - the general statement that if you are bad at QB you need to be good at other spots is... true, but not really saying much. Same is true for other spots as well.

[chancellor]

Yeah, I can see that - I'm in second place with the highest point total in my auction league, which is QB/2 RB/3 WR/TE/Flex/Superflex/ST-D with Lawrence and Geno Smith as my two QBs. But I'm stacked at RB/WR/TE, so it's worked out well.

[Ken]

Some observations:
- if your teams don't have Mahomes, LJax, Hurts or Allen at QB, you likely have to hit big on your other positions to be the league winner. I'm not counting out Herbert or Burrow yet, but the others look like the top 4

That depends a ton on how your QB scoring works.

In one of my leagues the guy with Mahomes is 0-3 and one of the guys in 1st has Tom Brady.

[revo]

LOL, thanks

Sterling Shepard done for the season

[chancellor]

Revo's fantasy football advice rocks. That is all.